NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

Welcome back, everyone. For Friday night, we get a full 10-game slate, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades + Ownership | Jan. 8

Point Guard: Caris LeVert

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

It only took a few weeks for Kyrie Irving to start drama in the 2020-21 season. He was ruled out prior to Thursday night’s tilt with the Sixers due to “personal reasons,” and then reports came out later last night that he simply “didn’t want to play.” The Nets had their flight to Memphis following the win over the Sixers and Irving didn’t show up, so he has officially been ruled for Friday. With Irving absent, Kevin Durant (heath protocols) still away from the team and Spencer Dinwiddie (knee) done for the year, LeVert instantly becomes a must-play at his friendly price tags on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Last night was the second time Brooklyn has played a game this season sans Durant, Irving and Dinwiddie and in these two contests, LeVert has started at point guard and produced 55.6 DraftKings points per game with a team-high 36.9% usage rate. In the 131 total minutes he has played with these three players off the court this season, LeVert is scoring 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. The Grizzlies are giving up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards, and while he may be the chalk of the night, I highly recommend going overweight with LeVert in GPPs this evening.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 46.3%, FanDuel 55.5%

Power Forward: Jayson Tatum

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

Tonight, due to the NBA’s COVID-19 policies, the Celtics will be without Robert Williams, Grant Williams and Tristan Thompson. When these three have been off the floor this season, Tatum has seen his already robust usage rate increase 3.3%, and with Boston’s frontcourt so thin, the 22-year-old superstar should play most of his minutes at power forward, naturally improving his rebounding numbers. His third double-double of the season is absolutely possible in this outstanding matchup against the Wizards, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and second in pace. Whenever Washington is on the schedule, their game is automatically one of the best targets of the night, and Friday is a prime example, with this East matchup carrying an over/under of the 234.5 points, the highest mark of this 10-game slate.

This is the largest game total the Celtics have competed in this season, and Boston currently sports a slate-high implied team total of 120 points. In his last four starts in a game total of 230 points or more, Tatum is producing 49 DraftKings points per game. His ceiling is close to 60 fantasy points given all these factors, and I don’t know how you can keep Tatum out of your lineups on Friday.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 27.0%, FanDuel 28.8%

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Center: Tacko Fall

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Last Wednesday Boston was also without Thompson. This created a two-man center rotation for the Celtics, with Daniel Theis starting and Robert Williams backing him up. Both came at cheap prices, and with the security of the starting role, most DFS players gravitated to Theis, leaving Williams with sub-10% ownerships in GPPs. As I wrote in my picks that day, pivoting to Williams made a ton of sense for GPPs, and he ended up being the key to taking down GPPs that night. The center outscored Theis by 4.25 DraftKings points and was in the winning lineup of DraftKings’ $1 Million Shootaround (6% owned). Rostering Williams helped me finish second in the 44,589-entry Four-Point Play last Wednesday, and tonight presents a similar opportunity with the Celtics’ depleted.

With Williams, Thompson and Williams all out of the equation, Boston is left with Theis and Fall as the only natural centers remaining on their roster. Theis is an excellent punt play that will gain a ton of attention and is a cash-game lock, but Fall should come with a far less ownership in GPPs. His playing time is extremely fragile, but the Wizards tend to have a real center on the floor at all times. Fall should log a career high in playing time, and there is a chance he will get between 15 and 20 minutes off the bench, particularly if the foul-prone Theis finds himself in trouble early. Since joining the NBA last season, the 7-foot-5 Fall has supplied 1.5 DraftKings points per minute, and if he ever approached 20 minutes, he would destroy his bare-minimum price tags against this soft Wizards defense. The floor is obviously extremely shaky, but if making multiple GPP lineups tonight, I think gambling on Fall in his best opportunity since joining the NBA makes a ton of sense from a contrarian standpoint.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 13.9%, FanDuel 1.8%

Point Guard: Cole Anthony

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

The Magic just lost Markelle Fultz (knee) for the season, and now Michael Carter-Williams (foot) and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) will join him on the sidelines, while Evan Fournier (questionable, back) may miss his fourth straight game. Even if Fournier is good to go, Anthony is looking at over 30 minutes of action as Orlando’s starting point guard. Fultz played four minutes before going down with the season-ending injury Wednesday, and after he exited Anthony logged a career-high 32 minutes against the Cavaliers.

He finished second on the team in playing time in the win, and when Fultz, Gordon and Carter-Williams have been off the floor this season, Anthony has received a team-high 6.2% usage increase. He generates 1.0 DraftKings points per minute in this position and will face a Houston defense that is surrendering the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards this year. Anthony should excel in this juicy spot, and Vegas is also expecting the rookie to be rather successful. His current prop line is projecting him for 16 points, six assists and six rebounds, which equates to 32.5 DraftKings points before defensive stats and DraftKings bonuses are credited.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 42.1% FanDuel 40.0%

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