Welcome back, everybody. For Tuesday night, we get a value filled six-game slate, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
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Power Forward: Kevin Durant
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B
With Kyrie Irving (personal) out Sunday, Durant was spectacular, recording 58.25 DraftKings points against the Thunder. His usage rate hit a new season high of 35.8%, and Irving will continue to be away from the team Tuesday night when the Nets face the Nuggets. We can’t forget that Spencer Dinwiddie (out, knee) is also sidelined, and in all the time Durant has played without him and Irving since joining the Nets, he has supplied 1.6 DraftKings points per minute with a mammoth 37.1% usage rate.
This is a 5.6% increase from Durant’s average usage for the season, and the Nuggets’ have been a mess defensively in 2020-21, ranking 24th in efficiency. Combine their poor defense with Brooklyn’s fast pace (third in pace), and this matchup is expected to be an elite environment for fantasy purposes. It’s over/under of 230 points is the highest mark on the slate, and the -1.5 point spread in favor of the Nets is the smallest of the night. Durant’s massive ceiling in this situation can’t be ignored, especially on DraftKings where he is egregiously underpriced at $9,400.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 20.5% FanDuel 20.5%
Center: Kelly Olynyk
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A
FanDuel’s slate starts at 7:30 PM EST and doesn’t include the Heat vs Sixers
The Heat are the most recent NBA team to have a COVID-19 outbreak, and they will be down to nine players for Tuesday’s game against the 76ers. All of Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, Avery Bradley, Maurice Harkless, K.Z. Okpala, Bam Adebayo and Udonis Haslem have officially been ruled out due to the NBA’s new health policies. Olynyk, who was dealing with a groin injury, has been listed as probable and should start at either power forward or center on Tuesday. With three of the Heat’s top four scorers missing, he should see an increased usage rate and log over 30 minutes against this 76ers club that is also dealing with a health crisis. They will only have 10 bodies this evening, and they are playing their second game in two nights.
Philadelphia’s high defensive rankings are currently irrelevant in this debacle, and Olynyk should smash value at his $5,300 price point on DraftKings. He contributed 38 DraftKings points across 31 minutes Saturday against the Wizards and is now averaging 32.4 DraftKings in the last 10 he has logged 30 minutes or more.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 35.6%
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Point Guard: Tyler Herro
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A
Herro and Olynyk should lead the Miami offense tonight. We obviously don’t have any data of this rare situation for the Heat, but it’s safe to assume the ultra-confident Herro will be aggressive with the extra opportunities. He should see as many minutes as he can handle, and I am expecting a usage rate north of 30% for the 20-year-old. Herro has posted a usage rate above 30% three times in his career, and he is scoring 35.75 DraftKings points per game on those occasions. Plus, if we analyze his results with at least 35 minutes of work, the Kentucky guard is producing 36.9 DraftKings points per game for his career.
Fresh off 44.25 DraftKings points in the win over the Wizards on Saturday, Herro’s price has reached a new season high, but the combo guard is still way too cheap for the task at hand tonight. Via Awesemo’s projections, Herro is the best point-per-dollar value over $5,000 on DraftKings for this six-game slate.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 33.6%
Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
Plain and simple, nobody can stop Sabonis this season. He has double-doubled in all 10 starts and is scoring 49.1 DraftKings points per game. After going against the Kings in the highest game total of their young season on Monday, the Pacers find themselves in an even larger total tonight against the Warriors (228.5 points). This Golden State defense has struggled, ranking 20th in efficiency and surrendering the most rebounds per game in the league.
Sabonis is one of the best high-priced spends of the night no matter what, but his large projection could grow even further if Victor Oladipo (questionable) is inactive. He played 37 minutes last night and was rested for one game of Indiana’s first back-to-back set of the season back in December. T.J. Warren (foot) is already sidelined, and when he and Oladipo have been off the court this year, Sabonis’ usage rate has jumped a team-high 6.3% and his fantasy production has improved to 1.4 DraftKings points per minute.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 26.7% FanDuel 39.4%
Looking for more NBA daily fantasy picks content? We have loads of NBA daily fantasy picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.5
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