NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

Welcome back, everybody. For Thursday night, there are three NBA games to attack, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Jan. 21

Small Forward: LeBron James

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B

James had a quiet night in Monday’s loss to the Warriors (33.25 DraftKings points), causing his DraftKings’ price to drop all the way down to $9,200. This isn’t just a season-low cost for the future Hall of Famer; this is the cheapest James has been on DraftKings since October of 2016. To reach 5x value at this price, the 36-year-old needs 46 DraftKings points. This season he is producing 47.3 DraftKings points per game, and tonight he will be facing Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Over the last three years, James has been excellent when facing the fellow superstar, scoring 60.3 DraftKings points per game in seven matchups.

Plus, this clash of championship contenders carries a slate-high total of 229 points, and the Bucks are only favored by a point. This is the smallest spread of the night, and in his last seven contests that have presented a total above 225 points and a spread under 5, James has amassed 57.9 DraftKings points per game. Via Awesemo’s projections, the four-time NBA champion is rating as a top-five point-per-dollar value on DraftKings and is a building block for this three-game slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 34.9%, FanDuel 40.3%

Shooting Guard: Alec Burks

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: D

Burks (ankle) has missed the last 12 games for the Knicks, but he is now listed as probable and expected to play this evening against his former team. With his return also comes the expected absences of Austin Rivers (Achilles) and Frank Ntilikina (knee), who are both listed as doubtful. This opens up about 20-25 minutes of work and some extra offensive responsibilities for this New York backcourt. Before his injury, Burks was flourishing as the Knicks’ sixth man, scoring 34.5 DraftKings points per game in 27.4 minutes off the bench. This a strong average of 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, and while the Warriors have improved defensively after an ugly start (11th in efficiency), Burks is a pure scorer who rarely disappoints when given decent playing time, which should happen tonight under the relentless Tom Thibodeau. In his last ten with 20 minutes or more, the former Warrior is contributing 30.5 DraftKings points per game.

As always, there is an obvious risk in rostering a player returning from injury, but this factor should create low ownership levels for Burks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making the 28-year-old a very interesting GPP target for this short slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 8.0%, FanDuel 10.3%

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Center: James Wiseman

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

After an underwhelming showing in a difficult matchup against the Lakers this past Monday (9.25 DraftKings points), Wiseman bounced back last night with 33.5 DraftKings points in the win over the Spurs. The rookie has now eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three and is in a great position to do so again Thursday night.

Coach Thibodeau has the Knicks playing much better defense this season (sixth in efficiency), but they still have clear issues in the paint, allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing centers. They also prefer to always have a natural center on the floor at all times, which bodes well for Wiseman to see increased minutes. In three of the past four contests for the Warriors, the second overall pick from this year’s draft has logged at least 25 minutes, and he is scoring 27.2 DraftKings points per game on the eight occasions he has cracked 20 minutes during his rookie year. He should be able to beat both his DraftKings and FanDuel salaries tonight, and Wiseman is the top point-per-dollar value of the slate on both sites per Awesemo’s projections.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 20.7%, FanDuel 16%

Small Forward: Khris Middleton

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: B

This Bucks – Lakers’ matchup is without question the top game of the night to target, and Middleton is extremely underpriced for this type of environment. This contest’s total is the largest of the night by a notable 11.5 points, and the Bucks are always excellent fantasy targets when they aren’t blowing out their opponent.

Since the NBA restart this past summer, Milwaukee has been favored by 5 points or less eight times, and Middleton has shined in these competitive settings, scoring 45.2 DraftKings points per game. Following a 43 DraftKings point outing against the Nets on Monday, the two-time All-Star is supplying 41.7 DraftKings points per game across his last seven. His price is appealing on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and Middleton is the best value to utilize from the Bucks and their slate-high implied team total (115 points).

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 31.6%, FanDuel 33.8%

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