Lineup Rewind: NBA DraftKings 1/6/21 Main Slate GPP Review

Last night we had an 11-game NBA DFS slate with big news that came before lock. Christian Wood not playing opened the door to a cheap DeMarcus Cousins moving into a starting role. He rewarded players with 40 fantasy points in 23 minutes at $4,300. Rostered in 49.3% of lineups overall, 150-maxers used him at a 77% clip. The rest of the news was anti-climatic, as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both suited up to play. The keys to the slate, aside from Cousins, included having a 4%-owned Bradley Beal (79.75 fantasy points for $9,000). I enjoyed this NBA DraftKings Lineup Review because we had a lot of slumping, cheap players that finally found success:

Austin Rivers 9.9x

Saddiq Bey 9.8x

Marvin Bagley III 8.8x

Brook Lopez 8.5x

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7x

Let’s get right into the NBA DraftKings Lineup review by taking a look a the user who took first place with three identical lineups.

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DFS Rewind: NBA DraftKings Lineup Review | Jan. 6

The main DraftKings GPP was the NBA $700K Shootaround ($150,000 to first). There were 49,869 entries played by 17,502 unique players of which 14.5% made a profit.

The Winner

Congratulations to egretman, who won this GPP by 14.5 points with a 382.50. Amazingly, egretman entered eight lineups into this GPP but only three unique lineups, duplicating all three of his entries two or three times. Egretman took first place three times, 713th twice and 26,575th three times. Long story short, egretman cashed five of his eight entries for a profit of $224,980 off his $120 investment. The winning lineup used all $50,000 team salary and had a cumulative team ownership of 125.3%. I have also included his player exposures; he played 16 different players in his three unique lineups.

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Salary and Ownership

Nine of the top 50 finishers used $49,700 team salary or less. Here are the top salaries used last night:

  • $50,000 | 53%
  • $49,900 | 23%
  • $49,800 | 11%
  • $49,700 | 5%
  • $49,600 | 3%

Cumulative team ownership on the top 50 was wide (large slate), but the 100-145% range was the sweet spot for the majority. The most popular optimal lineup was played 50 times and came in at 164.2% cumulative team ownership; it did not cash:

Draftkings NBA GPP Lineup Review Optimal

The 150-Maxers

Ninety-five 150-maxers entered 14,250 lineups, making up 28.6% of entries in this tournament. Thirty-two made a profit, which is more than usual. They took fifth through 14th place. Twenty-one 150-maxers cashed 30 lineups or fewer. Youracnecream had the best overall performance from this group, cashing 114 lineups and profiting $40,950:

nba dfs

His top 10 player exposures:

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Miscellaneous

Boom of the slate goes to Rivers, who provided 35.75 fantasy points (9.9x) for $3,600 at 5.9% ownership. For bust of the slate, Kelly Olynyk takes the cake: 18.75 fantasy points for $4,400 at 37.2% ownership. Olynyk is doing Olynyk things again this year in DFS, outperforming when lowly owned and failing when highly owned.

One hundred and thirty-seven lineups were reserved and not played. The lowest-owned lineup that cashed (min-cashed) featured a cumulative team ownership of 20.4%:

Draftkings NBA GPP Lineup Review Optimal

The lowest salary team that cashed ($50 for 749th place) used $45,800 team salary:

The best possible lineup you could have played last night scored 422 while using a team salary of $49,800. Note that Bey is in the optimal at 0.2% ownership. This is two days removed from being chalk at 37% two slates ago. He scored 13.25 fantasy points that day but 43 last night. This lineup would have won by 39.50 fantasy points:

Draftkings NBA GPP Lineup Review Optimal


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