DraftKings NBA Lineup Review: Analyzing The Winning DFS Strategy Build

Last night there was a six-game NBA DFS slate that gave me a sour taste when I first took a look a couple hours before lock. Loading up on Warrior value is a scary proposition, and it flopped last night. The main DraftKings GPP was called the NBA $500K Fadeaway ($100,000 to first, $15 to enter). It became clear early that Fred VanVleet would be in the winning lineup, limiting potential winners to 16.4% of the lineups entered. Eight of the best point-per-dollar plays were rostered in less than 6% of lineups last night, five of those in less than 1.5% of lineups. Let’s get right into the NBA DraftKings Lineup review.

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DFS Rewind: NBA DraftKings Lineup Review | Feb. 2

In this NBA DraftKings GPP, there were 39,215 total entries from exactly 13,000 DFS players, 2,043 (15.7%) of which made a profit. A total of 84.3% of DFS players who entered this GPP lost money.

The Winner

Congratulations to jimbob2125, who won this GPP with a score of 364.25 and took second place with a 363.50 for good measure. F0rsaken took third place, 4 points behind. The winning lineup used all $50,000 salary and had a cumulative team ownership of 130%. Jimbo2125 entered 150 lineups, risking $2,250, and ended up cashing 100 lineups for an overall profit in this GPP of $142,230.56.

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Salary and Ownership

Nine of the top 50 finishers used less than $49,700. Team salaries were lower than normal, with a 20% drop in lineups using max salary. Here are the top salaries used last night:

$50,000 | 49%
$49,900 | 24%
$49,800 | 12%
$49,700 | 6%
$49,600 | 3%

The most popular optimal lineup was played 70 times, using all $50,000 team salary and a cumulative team ownership of 223.5%. It scored a 255.75, was Raptor-less, contained all three chalk value pieces from the Warriors and did not cash.

The 150-Maxers

Eighty-two 150-maxers entered 12,300 lineups, making up 31.4% of entries in this tournament. Only 18 made a profit, but they dominated the leaderboard. All told, 150-maxers took first through sixth, ninth and 11th last night. One hundred fifty-four 150-maxers cashed 20 lineups or fewer, and three cashed exactly 100 lineups.

The most profitable 150-maxer was jimbob2125, who had the winning lineup. Other 150-maxers rounding out the top sports were F0rsaken, mston, youracnecream, giantsquid and kurtbranagan. Here is jimbob2125’2 worst-performing lineup, which scored a 243.5:

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Miscellaneous

Boom of the slate goes to VanVleet, who put up 77.75 fantasy points at $7,400 for 10.5x and was rostered in 16.4% of lineups. Bust was Eric Paschall, who returned 4.5 fantasy points for $3,500 (1.3x) and was rostered in 34.9% of lineups.

One hundred and twenty-seven lineups were reserved and not played,. The lowest-owned lineup that cashed (min-cashed) featured a cumulative team ownership of an amazing 28.5%:

The lowest-salary team that cashed (min-cashed) used $48,100 team salary:

The best entry from a single bullet took seventh place:

The best lineup possible would have scored a 404.25 and would have won this GPP by 40 points.

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