Last night we had a seven-game NBA DFS slate; the main DraftKings GPP was the NBA $400K Fadeaway ($100,000 to first). There were 10,732 unique players who entered the fray, with 31,372 entries at $15 each. Only 1,127 (10.5%) made a profit. Let’s get right into the NBA DraftKings Lineup review.
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DFS Rewind: NBA DraftKings Lineup Review | Jan. 3
This slate will be remembered as the night Luka Doncic was announced as doubtful about 30 minutes before lock and Stephen Curry put up 75.75 fantasy points in the late game. Dallas value plays instantly became the most popular on the slate when Doncic was listed doubtful, with Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson and Trey Burke becoming three of the four most rostered players. Two single-entry players ended up winning, with a throng of 150-maxers just behind.
The Winner
Congratulations to rgarza5 and joeaggies, who both entered only once and both played the same lineup, scoring a 367 and winning by half a point. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot made his second appearance of the season in a winning lineup. These two players only rostered one Dallas value play in Brunson. All $50,000 team salary was used, while cumulative team ownership on this lineup came in at 170.1%.
Salary and Ownership
Five of the top 50 finishers used $49,700 team salary or less; the vast majority of teams in the top 50 used $49,900 or more. Here are the top salaries used in the GPP:
- $50,000 | 46%
- $49,900 | 24%
- $49,800 | 13%
- $49,700 | 7%
- $49,600 | 4%
Cumulative team ownership on the top 50 was concentrated in the 160-200% range. The most popular lineups played came in at 255% cumulative team ownership. These lineups are optimal median projected lineups and have about the same chance of winning the GPP as the players that reserve entries but don’t enter any lineups. Two hundred and fourteen users entered this lineup, which did not cash:
That is passable for a cash game but has a 0% chance of winning the GPP and not good odds to cash either.
The 150-Maxers
Sixty-seven 15-maxers entered 10,050 lineups making up 32% of entries in this tournament. Nineteen made a profit. As a 150-maxer won the big one for the first time this year, we have already looked at the best 150-maxer lineup. I have never included this graphic before, but yesterday’s NBA DFS GPP on DraftKings stands out for the amount of 150-maxers in the top 50. Usually you will see 5-10 in the top 50, but here we have 41 of the top 50 spots taken by 150-maxers.
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Miscellaneous
Boom of the slate easily goes to Jalen Brunson, who provided 49.25 fantasy points (14.9x) for $3,300 at 50.8% ownership. The bust of the slate is a tough one, as the highest-owned players delivered. Sorted by ownership, the first player to return less than 4.6x was Thaddeus Young, who put up 15.4 fantasy points (3.7x) to the 21.6% that rostered him.
One hundred and thirty-two lineups were reserved and not played. The lowest-owned lineup that cashed (min-cashed) featured a cumulative team ownership of 47.4%:
The lowest salary team that cashed (min-cashed) used $48,300 team salary:
The best possible lineup you could have played last night scored a 400.25 using a team salary of $49,900. This lineup would have won by 33.25 fantasy points:
The NBA $100K 4-Point Play
I don’t usually cover another GPP, but something special happened last night in the $4 20-max. Congratulations to rgarza5, who entered a 20-lineup train that took first place with a 367.
Just as in the main GPP, this winning lineup won by half a fantasy point. So, the second-best lineup in this GPP, which scored that 366.5, finished in 21st place and won $400. Rgarza5 was paid out $1,647.50 on each of his 20 lineups for a total profit of $32,870 on his $80 investment. The next most profitable player in this tournament took home $617.
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