We get two terrific matchups on the NBA DFS slate for today, Sept. 4. The first is Game 3 of Bucks – Heat, following a controversial ending to last game. The second is a new playoff matchup between the Rockets and the well-rested Lakers. There’s no shortage of stars to spend up for today in our NBA DFS picks.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Friday, Sept. 4.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
LeBron James vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG/SF, $11,000, 38.6% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $10,800, 47.6% Boom
James is rested after a 30-point triple-double the last time we saw him. He knows the Lakers can’t start a second series 0-1. Just look at the Bucks. So I expect LeBron to be aggressive and ensure his team wins tonight. In two games against Houston this season, he is averaging a crazy 13.5 assists. This is partially due to the fact that nobody on Houston can guard Anthony Davis‘ size. Yet again, LeBron is a high-point triple-double candidate tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Heat: DraftKings: PF, $11,500, 31.2% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $10,600, 55.3% Boom
Antetokounmpo was called for a shooting foul as time expired, which was controversial to say the least. The reigning MVP finds himself down 0-2 in the series, so expect to see a different level of aggressiveness today. No matter what his price was going to be, we knew he would have high boom potential, with his back up against the wall. Also, if we’re being honest, the refs will probably be a little more in his favor today. Look for Giannis to push for 40 minutes if the game asks for it.
Russell Westbrook vs. Lakers: DraftKings: PG, $8,600, 20.2% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $8,500, 32.9% Boom
It still feels weird to see Westbrook at this low of a price, but it’s understandable as he works his way back from injury. However, he played 34 minutes last game and had a 29.8% usage rate. This combination is the definition of boom potential. The Lakers don’t really have anyone that can guard Westbrook, which is why he is averaging 38 points against them this season. It seems like the perfect time to take a chance on the Houston guard.
Bust Candidates
Robert Covington vs. Lakers: DraftKings: SF/PF, $6,300, 76.4% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $6,800, 68.2% Bust
Covington is coming off three straight terrific performances for NBA DFS. Today, he may be asked to use most of his energy on defense to try and slow down Anthony Davis. On top of this likely leading to reduced offensive numbers, covering Davis also means foul potential for Covington. He had five fouls the last time Houston faced the Lakers, and he had an 11.6% usage on offense. Both of these are a product of the Davis matchup.
Kyle Kuzma vs. Rockets: DraftKings: SF/PF, $5,000, 72.2% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $4,900, 61.0% Bust
Kuzma was so untrustworthy in the first round. Not only did he not shoot that well, he played 23 or less minutes in three of his last four games. While this matchup probably suits him more, there’s no denying that he has high bust potential given inconsistencies in both his play and minutes.
Goran Dragic vs. Bucks: DraftKings: PG, $7,000, 57.6% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $7,200, 52.9% Bust
Dragic has been spectacular in the postseason. However, his newly increased price doesn’t do him in favors. He should continue to play well, but he would need an outstanding game to be a boom, whereas a pretty solid game could still technically bring in bust value. He is by no means a bad play today, but you could probably find better value given he is over $7,000.
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