After a night in which both top-seeded teams lost, anything thing can happen in the NBA Playoffs. This has made made NBA DFS interesting and tricky thus far, forcing us to really work to project game scripts in order do create lineups that cash.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Saturday, Sept. 5.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Paul George vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: SG/SF, $8,200, 17.2% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,700, 34.1% Boom
Paul George started last game slow, but found his shot, scoring 19 points overall. At his price, he is a tier below top plays like his teammate Kawhi Leonard, but he possesses close to the same amount of upside, should the game stay competitive and he is dialed in. So, while “Playoff P” has looked like “Pandemic P” more often than not this postseason, the potential upside is there, given his price today, which continues to hold firm.
Fred VanVleet vs. Celtics: DraftKings: PG/SG, $7,700, 17.5% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,700, 25.5% Boom
Fred VanVleet can get hot at any point. In Game 1, he struggled to score, but filled up the box score everywhere else. Last game, he was hitting shots, putting up 25 points. However, he turned the ball over five times and did not record a steal. If he can add these other stats while still scoring at a high clip, he could have a “boom” performance today. He has the upside needed on a slate like today’s.
Nikola Jokic vs. Clippers: DraftKings: C, $9,500, 23.2% Boom | FanDuel: C, $9,500, 33.5% Boom
The Clippers locked the big man down last game, guarding him on the perimeter and preventing him from both scoring and facilitating the offense like he normally would do. The question is if they can pull this off twice in a row. While Jokic is certainly risky, he has high value potential at the center position, if things go right.
NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Monte Morris vs Clippers: DraftKings: PG, $4,100, 86.5% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $4,200, 78.6% Bust
Gary Harris is back and getting more involved, which forced Monte Morris to come off the bench last game. While he had a high usage on this second unit, he played just 17 minutes. His price would need to fall under $4K for us to consider him with such a limited workload.
Lou Williams vs Nuggets: DraftKings: PG/SG, $6,000, 83.7% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $5,200, 57.5% Bust
There’s a couple things working against Lou Williams here. First, Patrick Beverley is back, which lowers Williams’ potential for high minutes. Also, the Clippers dominated in Game 1 and the odds are expecting them to have a big lead again today. If LA is playing with a big lead, they don’t need Lou’s offense. They would rather opt for a someone that can play defense. Unfortunately, he may be game flow-specific the rest of the postseason.
Norman Powell vs Celtics: DraftKings: SG/SF, $4,200, 70.2% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $4,700, 73.1% Bust
Norman Powell is normally inconsistent, making him a risk to bust on any given night. He has been consistent lately, but consistently bad. The Raptors are running a tight rotation, Powell has seen 15 or less minutes in back-to-back games. This isn’t enough floor time to have any trust in him today.
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