Today’s two-game slate has a mid-afternoon start, which is a couple hours than we are used to for Sundays. We also have both top-seeded teams playing, but neither have a win. In fact, the Bucks are looking at getting eliminate today. Will this bring the best out of these teams, or do they have something beyond basketball on their minds? These are the questions that come up when constructing your perfect NBA DFS lineup.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Sunday, Sept. 6.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
LeBron James vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG/SF, $10,800, 35.9% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $10,500, 46.7% Boom
The Lakers came out and lost another Game 1, which has been the trend for LeBron-led teams as of late. With fear of going down 0-2, LeBron should come out aggressive tonight. The Rockets are different from the Trail Blazers, as LeBron cannot just sit back and watch his team win Game 2. It will take a strong effort from both of their stars. This is a potential triple-double spot for him tonight.
Russell Westbrook vs. Lakers: DraftKings: PG, $8,500, 21.2% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $9,000, 24.4% Boom
Westbrook had a massive 44.4% usage rate in Game 1. The translated to an OK, but not great, day for NBA DFS. However, the upside is clearly there. He shot just 10-of-24 and turned the ball over five times. These are two areas that can be improved upon. Westbrook also would have gotten a double-double with one more rebound. He has 30-point, double-double upside today.
Bam Adebayo vs. Bucks: DraftKings: C, $8,300, 12.9% Boom | FanDuel: PF, $8,200, 24.5% Boom
Adebayo is on a roll, putting up a double-double in three of his last four games. The one game he failed to do so was because he was one rebound shy. He also had at least 15 rebounds in three of the last four games. Look for him to continue his dominant play, and Adebayo has boom upside if they need to rely on him more offensively.
Bust Candidates
Eric Gordon vs. Lakers: DraftKings: SG/SF, $5,900, 82.5% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $5,600, 68.5% Bust
Gordon barely hit value again in Game 1. With Westbrook return to play alongside James Harden, we have seen Gordon’s usage drop around 5% on average. He is attempting fewer shots, so if Gordon doesn’t have another efficient shooting night, he will bust.
P.J. Tucker vs. Lakers: DraftKings: C, $4,700, 65.0% Bust | FanDuel: C, $5,300, 66.1% Bust
Despite playing 36 minutes last game, this is not a good matchup for Tucker. There are times when he will need to cover Anthony Davis, who is athletic enough to play on the perimeter but big enough to dominate Tucker down low. He gets matched up with the more traditional centers as well, who also have a massive size advantage. Tucker attempted seven shots, all of which were 3-pointers. He needs to get hot from deep to hit value today.
Kyle Kuzma vs. Rockets: DraftKings: SF/PF, $4,800, 67.3% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $4,600, 53.1% Bust
While this matchup seems built for Kuzma to thrive, he was terrible yet again in Game 1. The response to this, of course, was to raise his salary. He has been a bust in four of his last five games, scoring in the single digits for those four games. Kuzma has potential, and you would think he thrives in an up-and-down game where a lot of 3’s are attempted, but he has not helped the Lakers much at all recently. Someone should let him know the NBA Playoffs began.
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