We have two games on the NBA DFS slate today that have been a part of a close series. The Raptors face elimination in the first game today, so don’t expect a deep rotation with them looking to play four of their starters nearly the entire game. Knowing the stakes of each game is another added layer of strategy that goes into constructing lineups.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, Sept. 9.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Pascal Siakam vs. Celtics: DraftKings: PF, $7,800, 26.6% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $8,000, 33.2% Boom
After a terrible performance last game, look for Siakam to come out much more aggressive. After playing 46 minutes two games ago, he played just 29 minutes last game and took nine shots, operating with a series-low 17.6% usage rate. You may also get him for slightly less ownership than he normally would get, with the box score chasers staying off him.
Nikola Jokic vs. Clippers: DraftKings: C, $9,900, 22.2% Boom | FanDuel: C, $9,900, 31.8% Boom
Jokic has put up back-to-back boom performances, so why not make it three in a row? He has one of the highest likelihoods to do so on the slate, and it becomes even more valuable at the center position. If he can limit his turnovers, he will be an even better play. Jokic should be able to continue scoring and racking up assists. If Paul George keeps missing shots, Jokic’s rebounding numbers will be nice too.
Jayson Tatum vs. Raptors: DraftKings: SF/PF, $9,300, 22.1% Boom | FanDuel: PF, $9,400, 30.0% Boom
Tatum has the ability to pour it on at any point. If he sees the ball go in early, you can expect him to stay aggressive and get his stats instead of taking what the defense gives him. After three down games from a NBA DFS perspective, he has one of the top boom probabilities of the day due to an easier price to get to. Also, if Siakam is going to be doing more offensively, his defense could lack, leading to more production from Tatum. They’re not a bad pairing today.
Bust Candidates
Lou Williams vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: PG/SG, $5,800, 79.1% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $5,500, 63.4% Bust
If you believe the Clippers will win this game, then Williams is likely not the play. When Los Angeles plays with a lead, they would rather play a guard that can play defense. If the Clippers are trailing, then Williams may get a few more minutes, as they need his offense to catch up. Being game script-specific like this makes him a risk.
O.G. Anunoby vs. Celtics: DraftKings: SF/PF, $5,700, 73.5% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $6,000, 63.5% Bust
After a tremendous start to the series, the Celtics have realized that Anunoby is someone they actually have to guard. Since then, he has been a bust in back-to-back games. With his price still increased from a few games ago, he has a high bust probability and isn’t expected to shoot the lights out again.
Gary Harris vs. Clippers: DraftKings: SG, $4,600, 63.0% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $5,300, 66.2% Bust
Yes, Harris put up a great performance last game. However, this resulted in a sharp price increase. He also only had a 9.8% usage rate last game, which is far too low for someone at this price point. We cannot rely on him getting four steals again.
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