In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Saturday, August 1st.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
NBA DFS Picks: Boom Candidates
Michael Porter Jr. vs. Heat: DraftKings: SF/PF, $3,000, 38.1% Boom | FanDuel: PF, $3,700, 28.8% Boom
Michael Porter Jr. looked comfortable during the last scrimmage, putting up a team-high 13 shots and scoring 19 points in 20 minutes. Priced at minimum on DK and near-minimum on FD, Porter has a great chance to “boom” today, with both Will Barton and Gary Harris out.
Paul George vs. Pelicans: DraftKings: SF, $7,900, 31.2% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,700, 44.1% Boom
Paul George put up 30 points in his first game down in the bubble, and that was against the Lakers. Today, he faces the Pelicans, who are worse defensively and play at a faster pace than the Lakers, putting George in a prime spot yet again. It also helps that his price has stayed reasonable on both sites. Between his two matchups against the Pelicans this season, George has averaged 25.5 points and seven rebounds in 27.3 minutes. If he gets up over 30 minutes again tonight, we should see another solid outing from him.
Donovan Mitchell vs. Thunder: DraftKings: PG/SG, $6,900, 27.3% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,200, 29.0% Boom
After putting up a terrific 20/5/5 line with three steals and a block last game, Donovan Mitchell remains as a cheaper option with high potential. He also has another good matchup, having taken advantage of in his two meetings with the Thunder this season. He has averaged 29 points, nine rebounds and three assists in the two previous games versus Oklahoma City. After the first bubble game, in which he got hot down the stretch, look for him to come out with the same level of aggressiveness that he ended last game with.
NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Norman Powell vs Lakers: DraftKings: SG/SF, $5,900, 92.2% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $5,300, 72.8% Bust
The reigning NBA champions have dealt with many injuries this season, which has allowed Norman Powell to benefit quite often. After months off, the Raptors enter this game healthy, which is good news for the team, but bad news for Powell’s NBA DFS value. The matchup isn’t great against the Lakers, and he is priced as someone that needs to do better than his season’s average to even hit value. An average which is boosted from the increased opportunities throughout the season.
Zion Williamson vs Team: DraftKings: PF/C, $7,500, 90.0% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $6,800, 67.2% Bust
As annoying as it is, the restrictions remain tight on Zion Williamson. It’s clear that he will remain limited for awhile, since the Pelicans do not want to risk injury or burnout with their young star, especially with the possibility of a shortened offseason. The minutes just aren’t there for Zion to be the NBA DFS play we want and need.
Al Horford vs Pacers: DraftKings: PF/C, $7,200, 75.2% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $7,200, 59.3% Bust
The 76ers were playing with a new starting lineup during their scrimmages, which resulted in a much more dangerous looking team. The switch was moving Ben Simmons to Al Horford’s position, bring Shake Milton into the lineup, then having Horford come off the bench. It made the team faster and much more athletic. Unfortunately for Horford, this obviously appears to hurt his fantasy value. We need his price to reflect in his potential loss of minutes, assuming Philadelphia sticks with this lineup.
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