We have a small two-game NBA DFS slate today with one of the matchups being a Round 2 series. This creates a little bit of added uncertainty, as any Game 1 of a playoff series does. Luckily, both the Bucks and Heat keep their rotations pretty steady, so there’s enough of a history for us to look back on for our research for NBA DFS today.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Monday, Aug. 31.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Heat: DraftKings: PF, $11,400, 25.4% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $11,500, 33.7% Boom
Typically, if Giannis sees a full workload of minutes, he will”boom since there really isn’t anyone that can stop him. The Bucks start a new series with the Heat today, who have fared well against Milwaukee this season. We can assume this game will be competitive throughout, and Giannis could see mid-to-high 30s for minutes, giving him plenty of time to smash value.
Chris Paul vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG, $8,200, 23.5% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $8,200, 36.5% Boom
Paul struggled last game, but with his back against the wall, the veteran should show up to play. He attempted 20 and 19 shots in Games 3 and 4, respectively, and I think he will come out this aggressive on offense yet again. Paul has also been filling up the stat sheet, putting up much more than just points and assists. He’s averaging 6.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals over the past three games.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG/SG, $7,100, 20.6% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,300, 30.1% Boom
Like Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander struggled last game, after putting up three straight big games. Awesemo projects a high likelihood for him to return to form today. In Games 2 through 4, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 24 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.7 steals. With the Thunder facing a possible elimination game, their backcourt should play as much as they can and look to lead the way for this team.
NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Russell Westbrook vs Thunder: DraftKings: PG, $9,700, 88.4% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $9,400, 72.0% Bust
Westbrook returned last game, but he only saw the floor for 24 minutes. He also showed a good amount of rust, shooting 3-of-13. At his price, the limited playing time already makes him a high risk. It’s the inefficiency that makes him someone to stay away from today.
Eric Gordon vs Thunder: DraftKings: SG/SF, $6,100, 81.1% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $6,000, 72.2% Bust
While Westbrook didn’t play his full workload last game, he still played 24 minutes. These are minutes that Gordon will not be a go-to option on the floor. With Westbrook likely to see at least a couple more minutes today, Gordon is unlikely to attempt 17 shots like he did last game, which is why Awesemo has such a high bust percentage on him.
Kendrick Nunn vs Bucks: DraftKings: PG/SG, $4,000, 100.0% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $4,200, 99.9% Bust
We didn’t think Nunn’s move to the bench would mean he couldn’t leave it, but that has been the case. He played 14 minutes last game, which was his only appearance of the first series. The Heat have said he would get more involved, but if this only means 14 minutes, that isn’t enough for him to be valuable for NBA DFS today.
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