While NBA has been back for a week now, it felt as though NBA DFS truly came back yesterday. Between the late scratch of Jimmy Butler or the Bucks resting their stars in the second half after the Nets went head-hunting for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the unpredictability is what makes fantasy basketball unique from any other sport.
We have a six-game NBA DFS slate yet again today with a fairly early first game. This means that contests will be locking early, so keep that in mind when you are setting your lineups. And make sure you have your eye on any possible news, especially after the chaotic slate we had yesterday — we have you covered with the Awesemo NBA Live Blog.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, August 5.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Jarrett Allen vs. Celtics: DraftKings: C, $5,400, 55.7% Boom | FanDuel: C, $6,700, 44.2% Boom
After resting yesterday, Allen is expected to be back for a favorable spot tonight. Last time we saw him, Allen played 38 minutes and exploded for DFS. He averages about 1.3 fantasy points per minute against the Celtics this season, so anything above 30 minutes should mean great things for Allen today. If he stays out of foul trouble, he should have no trouble hitting this minute mark.
Jayson Tatum vs. Nets: DraftKings: SF/PF, $8,200, 34.4% Boom | FanDuel: PF, $8,300, 42.8% Boom
Kemba Walker has already been ruled out today, which is great news for Tatum in DFS. With Walker off the floor, Tatum sees a 4.2% usage bump and averages 0.12 more fantasy points per minute. He has top-tier upside today against a Nets team that doesn’t really have anyone to match up against him.
Nikola Vucevic vs. Raptors: DraftKings: C, $8,100, 32.8% Boom | FanDuel: C, $7,800, 51.1% Boom
Vucevic is one of the more consistent players for NBA DFS that we have. Today, he gets a matchup against the Raptors where his services will be needed. Whether the pace gets slowed down to a half-court game or the Raptors play big, the Magic will likely need to play through Vucevic.
Bust Candidates
DeMar DeRozan vs .Nuggets: DraftKings: SF/PF, $8,300, 68.5% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $8,000, 45.8% Bust
Given his high price tag, DeRozan would need to have a good game to even hit value. We also saw the veteran’s minutes get dialed back last game, with him seeing just 31 minutes in what ended up being a two-point game. With the Spurs focusing on development, it would make sense if this were the norm the rest of the way. DeRozan has also not gotten the opportunity to rest a game yet. You would expect Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to give him some time off at some point.
Tobias Harris vs. Wizards: DraftKings: SF/PF, $8,600, 80.1% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $6,900, 33.6% Bust
Harris is much more of a bust candidate over on DraftKings given the high price tag. While he has played well the past two games, there’s little optimism on the Washington side of this game, which means this is prime blowout territory. At Harris’ price, reduced minutes would likely sink your lineup, just as anyone that played Khris Middleton or Antetokounmpo yesterday will tell you.
Al Horford vs. Wizards: DraftKings: PF/C, $6,600, 88.5% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $5,400, 49.3% Bust
Horford continues to be a name we see in the bust section of this article, but it’s for good reason. The move to the bench has not been kind to the veteran. Even with him playing 32 minutes last game, he still finished in single digits. In what looks like a potential blowout, there’s little reason to play Horford today.
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