NBA DFS Picks Based Off Awesemo’s Boom or Bust Tool for DraftKings + FanDuel | August 7

We have a six-game NBA day ahead. However, the NBA DFS slate on both sites leaves the first game off, making that a showdown. So, we have a five-game main slate and plenty of uncertainty, with some teams opting to hold players out or limit them in the game. This creates a chaotic slate, so make sure you have your eye on any possible news — we have you covered with the Awesemo NBA Live Blog.

In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.


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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained

When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Friday, Aug. 7.

*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

Boom Candidates

Jarrett Allen vs. Kings: DraftKings: C, $6,300, 35.4% Boom | FanDuel: C, $7,000, 39.6% Boom

Jarrett Allen has enjoyed his increased playing time in Orlando, despite having one game inhibited by fouls and another because of a blowout. Today, the game should be close, and the matchup shouldn’t scare you. He has 20-10 potential today like he did against Washington a couple games ago. We can also assume the Nets want to play Allen somewhere in the 30s for minutes despite him coming up short of that in the two games I previously mentioned.

De’Aaron Fox vs. Nets: DraftKings: PG, $7,600, 32.7% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $8,000, 46.7% Boom

De’Aaron Fox has been given the green light in the bubble, and he has taken advantage of this. He has attempted at least 20 shots in three of his four games, scoring at least 28 real points each time he puts up that many shots. He faces a Brooklyn team today that obviously is shorthanded and not very good. Fox has 50-point NBA DFS potential yet again.

Nikola Vucevic vs. 76ers: DraftKings: C, $7,800, 34.7% Boom | FanDuel: C, $7,800, 49.9% Boom

Nikola Vucevic continues to show up on this list, and that probably will continue to happen if his price remains steady. He sees a slight salary reduction after last game, but he should get right back to being a 40-point player with upside. He faces off with Joel Embiid today, but his ability to shoot long range and pick up peripherals makes him a pretty safe play.

NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates

Marcus Smart vs Raptors: DraftKings: PG/SG, $6,500, 87.7% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $5,500, 52.1% Bust

There’s a couple things working against Marcus Smart in the spot. First, he plays a tough Raptors team that has held him to roughly 0.75 fantasy points per minute this season. Secondly, Kemba Walker returns to the lineup. Walker played 27 minutes in his last outing, and he could approach 30 minutes today, taking some production and usage away from Smart.

Zion Williamson vs Wizards: DraftKings: PF/C, $8,000, 81.2% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $6,800, 45.7% Bust

Both NBA DFS sites are holding firm in their prices for Zion Williamson, ensuring we don’t play the rookie. You could make a case for him over on FanDuel. Still, he played just 25 minutes in a close game against Memphis a couple games ago. That seems to be his minute cap, which means we’d get lucky for him to just hit value, and that is not a play I am looking to make.

Shake Milton vs Magic: DraftKings: PG, $5,800, 71.8% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $4,700, 33.2% Bust

Again, you could make a case for Shake Milton over on FanDuel, but he’s tough to get to on DraftKings. Even with his reduced salary on FanDuel, his “boom” potential is unexciting for a player that you would think benefits from the loss of Ben Simmons. When sharing the floor with Embiid and Tobias Harris without Simmons, Milton actually sees a very slight drop in fantasy production per minute. He also only has 11.1% usage.

 


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Author
Zach Brunner is the founder of FlurrySports and a featured sports betting and fantasy sports expert for numerous outlets. With an education in business, coaching and history education, he has taken a little bit from all of his experiences to give him a well-rounded, unique point of view in the sports industry. Follow him on Twitter @FantasyFlurry to keep up with other things he is doing.

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