The playoffs have been highlighted guard play, with many terrific ones on the NBA DFS slate today. We have just two games to choose from, but these four teams have many relevant fantasy players, luckily.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Tuesday, Sept. 1.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Nikola Jokic vs. Jazz: DraftKings: C, $9,500, 35.5% Boom | FanDuel: C, $9,800, 40.7% Boom
Last game was just the second time Jokic failed to scored 28 or more points against the Jazz this season (scored 28-plus seven times). While he did shoot under 50%, his failure to reach this mark was mostly due to Jamal Murray going off again. While there’s an obvious path for both players to do well today, it could be a good idea to play one or the other in high tournaments. Unfortunately, they are now the same basic price. Still, if Murray struggles to not score 50 points today, we can expect Jokic to pick up the slack and be a good NBA DFS play.
Jaylen Brown vs. Raptors: DraftKings: SG/SF, $7,300, 16.0% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $6,300, 41.2% Boom
The potential is there for Brown to have a big game. In the final two games of last series, he played 42 and 41 minutes. Last game, the Celtics were firmly in control, so he only played 31 minutes. Still, he had a 28.9% usage rate and put up 18 shots. Everything is set up for a huge performance at his price. He just needs to convert.
Fred VanVleet vs. Celtics: DraftKings: PG/SG, $7,800, 14.3% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $7,600, 25.1% Boom
VanVleet filled up the stat sheet last game, so much so that he hit value despite scoring just 11 points. He did this by dishing out eight assists and grabbing four rebounds and six steals. The points should come, and he has hit multiple 3-pointers against the Celtics in four of his five meetings this season. VanVleet can get hot in a second, and if he does, watch out.
Bust Candidates
Gary Harris vs. Jazz: DraftKings: SG, $3,900, 78.1% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $4,500, 80.6% Bust
Harris returned to the floor last game, playing for the first time in nearly half of a year. He played 21 minutes and was largely unremarkable, attempting just four shots and missing both from deep. Despite his low salary on DraftKings, you don’t need to play Harris. He doesn’t offer much upside, and he has a single-digit floor.
Jamal Murray vs. Jazz: DraftKings: PG/SG, $9,700, 67.2% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $9,400, 48.7% Bust
Murray has been red hot, being a boom in three straight games. Unfortunately, the sites are starting to adjust his salary accordingly. His price on FanDuel is still doable, but $9,700 on DraftKings will make you think twice before playing him. Of course, he could continue this hot streak and smash value again. However, if he play at the level of play that has been typical of him in his career, he will be a bust at this high salary.
Norman Powell vs. Celtics: DraftKings: SG/SF, $4,900, 62.4% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $5,500, 66.4% Bust
Powell has not fared well against Boston this season. At his current price, he would have been a bust in all three games. Not only has he been inefficient shooting the rock, he has struggled to add much in the other stat columns.
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