We have a two-game slate yet again today, with one final first-round game being played tonight. The schedule is a bit weird overall, considering there will be a Game 3 before a Game 1 in this round, but it is what it is. Spacing these games out just means more days of basketball to watch and more days of NBA DFS picks to make and NBA DFS to play.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs. Obviously, you need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom.” Not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
James Harden vs. Thunder: DraftKings: PG/SG, $11,200, 32.3% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $11,400, 38.7% Boom
It’s Game 7 and Russell Westbrook is limited. One would think Harden will come out sharp and put up a big performance, and Awesemo’s boom percentage is thinking this as well. He had a 33.8% usage rate last game and put up 22 shots with 11 from deep. Harden just struggled to hit the long shots. If he’s dialed in today, we could see a superstar performance.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Heat: DraftKings: PF, $11,400, 29.2% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $11,500, 37.8% Boom
Giannis had a tough Game 1. He attempted just 12 shots, missed eight free throws and turned the ball over six times. At the very least, look for him to be more aggressive and attempt more shots. The reigning MVP will attempt to will his team to a win and even the series today, and it could lead to a big NBA DFS day.
Chris Paul vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG, $8,200, 23.3% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $8,200, 36.6% Boom
With his back up against the wall in Game 6, Paul showed up yet again and helped his team to force a Game 7. Games 3, 4 and 6 were high-stakes games for the Thunder, and Paul showed up more aggressive in all of them, attempting an average of 19.7 shots and scoring 26.7 points. Look for him to be aggressive yet again, hoping to change the narrative about his postseason success, or lack thereof.
Eric Gordon vs. Thunder: DraftKings: SG/SF, $5,800, 80.0% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $6,000, 77.3% Bust
Gordon played 35 minutes last game, but he had a 20.8% usage rate, his lowest of the series. This is due to Westbrook seeing his minutes increased. While Westbrook is reportedly still on a minutes limit tonight, he could push for 30 minutes, which will be more shared floor time for the two guards. Obviously, this could mean bad news for Gordon’s usage yet again.
Tyler Herro vs. Bucks: DraftKings: SG, $5,300, 62.2% Bust | FanDuel: SG, $5,200, 52.4% Bust
The Heat are again getting Kendrick Nunn involved, with him playing 16 minutes last game. This leads to slightly less minutes and usage for the rookie Herro. He is a player that and string together shots in a hurry, but there is a high probability of him having a game similar to the last, where he blends in.
Russell Westbrook vs. Thunder: DraftKings: PG, $8,900, 66.6% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $8,800, 49.8% Bust
Westbrook played just 27 minutes last game, and it was said that he will be on a minutes limit again today. While this is a discount, compared to where we typically see Westbrook priced, he is very obviously not playing at 100%. A less-than-100% Westbrook for reduced minutes is a big risk to flop.
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