Game 4 of the NBA Finals remained close and competitive throughout, but it was the Los Angeles Lakers that ultimately emerged victorious over the Miami Heat, taking the 3-1 series lead. This means they could win the NBA Finals tonight. However, we have seen teams blow 3-1 leads before, so nothing should be considered a lock, especially in 2020. Keep this in mind when building your NBA DFS lineups tonight, because the general lean will be to assume the Lakers finish their business.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Friday, Oct. 9.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
LeBron James vs. Heat: DraftKings: $12,400, 12.3% Boom | FanDuel: $16,000, 0.8% Boom
The Lakers win the NBA Finals with a win. You can bet James will do everything he can to ensure this happens, and he could do it in style. LeBron has scored 25 or more every game this series. He has also been two assists shy of a triple-double in each of the past two games. LeBron is always a candidate to put up a triple-double, and it certainly seems like something he would try to do in a close-out game.
Jimmy Butler vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $10,800, 9.6% Boom | FanDuel: $15,000, 0.6% Boom
The Lakers win the NBA Finals with a win. Same sentence as we said to kick off LeBron’s section, but it means a very different thing for Butler. We have seen how Butler responds when he is counted out or his back is against the wall. When people said the Heat were done ahead of Game 3, he responded with a 40-point triple-double. We know Butler will do absolutely anything he can to keep this series going tonight. While his most may not be enough, it very well could be enough for your NBA DFS lineups.
Anthony Davis vs. Heat: DraftKings: $11,800, 7.1% Boom | FanDuel: $15,500, 0.9% Boom
Following a terrible showing in Game 3, Davis responded with an OK overall Game 4. He continued to rack up blocks when Bam Adebayo is playing, adding another four last game. With LeBron doing absolutely everything he can to make sure the Lakers leave the bubble sooner rather than later, he should put Davis in plenty of positions to succeed. If this leads to him getting back to 20-plus shot attempts, it should be a great performance for NBA DFS.
Bust Candidates
Duncan Robinson vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $7,000, 96.6% Bust | FanDuel: $9,500, 99.9% Bust
Robinson has started to heat up over the past couple games. He has hit three 3-pointters in each of the past two games, which he could do again. However, his defensive stats from the past two games do not seem sustainable. Robinson had two steals and a block in Game 3, then one steal and a block last time out. It feels like he needs to keep this going to not bust, but the last time he combined for at least two steals/blocks was Sept. 2, so let’s not hold our breaths.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. Heat: DraftKings: $5,600, 94.2% Bust | FanDuel: $9,000, 100% Bust
It’s a close-out game, and we talked about how the two Lakers stars should take over. That means less usage for Caldwell-Pope. While he’s not a bad play by any means, it could be tough for him to find double-digit shot attempts, which he would need to hit value.
Jae Crowder vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $7,400, 93.7% Bust | FanDuel: $9,000, 98.0% Bust
While there is almost no chance Crowder will hit value, it doesn’t necessarily mean he is a bad play in this Showdown. He has been consistent and offers a high floor, but his ceiling also seems to be nice and low. He has scored between 22 and 25 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, with the one miss being 20.5 points. We can expect around there again tonight.
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