Tonight, we have just one game on the NBA DFS slate, which is going to be the case going forward. The Denver Nuggets will be taking on the Los Angeles Lakers, hoping to keep their momentum going and hand the Lakers yet another Game 1 loss. This is an interesting games from a DFS perspective, making lineup construction very much game script-specific.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Friday, Sept. 18.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Anthony Davis vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: $10,800, 11.0% Boom | FanDuel: $15,000, 0.8% Boom
Davis has scored at least 25 points in all four meetings with the Nuggets this season, with three of the games being double-doubles. On top of that, he has multiple blocks in three of the games and even grabbed multiple steals in two of the four. LeBron has had a habit of coming into Game 1 of these series more passive, so it’s possible Davis will be leaned on heavily.
LeBron James vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: $11,600, 10.8% Boom | FanDuel: $15,500, 0.4% Boom
While he may come into these Game 1 matchups more passive, it’s still LeBron, and he has triple-double upside every time he steps on the floor. He is averaging 28.7 points and 11.7 assists against Denver this season. If he can keep this going, there certainly is 30-point triple-double upside from LeBron, as he did against the Nuggets earlier this season.
Nikola Jokic vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $11,000, 10.2% Boom | FanDuel: $16,000, 0.1% Boom
Jokic was an animal last series, closing the series with a stat line of 16 points, 22 rebounds and 13 assists. If we are looking for possible upside on this showdown NBA DFS slate, we have very clearly seen the upside that the Denver big man has.
Bust Candidates
Michael Porter vs Lakers: DraftKings: $8,400, 98.7% Bust | FanDuel: $9,000, 98.2% Bust
The Nuggets will need to be careful with Porter’s minutes, as they don’t want him to be matched up with Davis on the floor. Even if he does find the minutes, Porter has struggled to perform recently, putting up a usage rate of less than 20% in each of the past four games and less than 14% in three of the last four.
Gary Harris vs Lakers: DraftKings: $7,600, 99.2% Bust | FanDuel: $10,500, 100% Bust
Harris has slowly improved after returning from injury. However, he needs to score in order to come anywhere close to value, and we cannot trust him to do that consistently. A slower pace from the Lakers could bring scoring down in general, but the fact that he will never be a go-to player gives him high bust potential.
Kyle Kuzma vs Nuggets: DraftKings: $7,000, 99.4% Bust | FanDuel: $10,000, 100% Bust
Speaking of scoring-dependent players, Kuzma has been an afterthought on the Lakers. Unless the game turns into a blowout, he is not likely to put up enough shots to really count for anything. He has played fewer than 25 minutes in three of his last four games. With a usage rate of less than 20% in each of the last five games, he would need more minutes to have any kind of trust in him.
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