We have just the single game for NBA DFS tonight, with the Los Angles Lakers looking to take the 3-0 series lead over the Denver Nuggets. A last-second shot was needed for the Lakers last game, so we could see yet another close matchup tonight, which would be good for lineup construction.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Tuesday, Sept. 22.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Anthony Davis vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: $17,400, 0.0% Boom | FanDuel: $15,500, 0.9% Boom
Davis’ confidence has to be at an all-time high after hitting the buzzer-beating 3 in Game 2. This last-second shot lifted him over the 30-point threshold, and he was one rebound away from a double-double. This came one game after a 37-point double-double, so we can easily see Davis’ NBA DFS upside in this series.
Nikola Jokic vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $16,500, 0.0% Boom | FanDuel: $15,000, 0.8% Boom
Jokic has triple-double upside every time he steps on the floor, and he comes in at a discount from LeBron James, which is why we see him listed here. The Nuggets big man put up 30 points and nine assists last game, but he has grabbed just six rebounds in each of the two games this series. For him to have a ceiling game, he would need to battle in the paint a bit more, but he clearly has that upside, shown by the 22-rebound game last series.
Jamal Murray vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $14,100, 0.0% Boom | FanDuel: $13,000, 0.4% Boom
Of the top-tier players, Murray comes in at the lowest salary. We have seen on multiple occasions this postseason that he can fill it up in a hurry. He scored 25 points on 19 shots last game, and there is a good chance we will see him attempt over 20 shots tonight as he attempts to will his team to a win and avoid dropping to 0-3 in the series.
Bust Candidates
Rajon Rondo vs Nuggets: DraftKings: $10,500, 100% Bust | FanDuel: $11,000, 100% Bust
Rondo has been terrific for the Lakers since returning from injury. However, his low minutes limit his upside today. While he was playing in the high 20s last series, Rondo played 22 and 21 minutes in Games 1 and 2, respectively. While his assists remain high, single-digit points and low minutes isn’t going to be enough today.
Gary Harris vs Lakers: DraftKings: $8,400, 100% Bust | FanDuel: $10,500, 100% Bust
With Jokic and Murray trying to lead the way for Denver, Harris has been pushed into irrelevancy. He has attempted just 6.5 shots per game this series, averaging four points scored. Since he does not add many other stats, few scoring opportunities is a death sentence to his NBA DFS value.
Kyle Kuzma vs Nuggets: DraftKings: $7,800, 100% Bust | FanDuel: $10,000, 100% Bust
Like Rondo, Kuzma does not see a large enough role off the bench to be consistently useful for fantasy. Kuzma grabs a few rebounds per game, but he is largely scoring-dependent outside of that. He has averaged 9.5 points scored this series, and there’s a high probability that he will have a quiet night once again, especially if the Lakers are leading, as they will not need his offense as much.
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