We have just the single game for NBA DFS tonight, with the Boston Celtics looking to tie the series with the Miami Heat. It has been a relatively even matchup thus far, creating a number of different routes in your lineup construction tonight.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, Sept. 23.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Jayson Tatum vs. Heat: DraftKings: $10,600, 7.3% Boom | FanDuel: $16,000, 0.0% Boom
Tatum has been the guy for Boston in this playoff run. He has score 25 or more points in four of his last five games, adding double-digit rebounds and at least five assists to those four games as well. Tatum can fill it up in every category, and Miami doesn’t have a player that can stop him.
Jae Crowder vs. Celtics: DraftKings: $6,000, 4.3% Boom | FanDuel: $9,500, 0.0% Boom
Crowder has been both solid and consistent for the Heat. He has scored in the double figures in each of his last seven games, with five of these performances being over 15 points. Crowder is also grabbing around five or six rebounds consistently, and he always has the chance to have a high-steal game. For a cheaper price, he is a player that can be trusted.
Tyler Herro vs. Celtics: DraftKings: $6,600, 4.2% Boom | FanDuel: $10,000, 0.0% Boom
The rookie has been the perfect spark off the bench for Miami. We know he is going to put up double-digit shot attempts, and we have even seen him rack up high rebounding totals in this series, with him grabbing 11 and nine in Games 1 and 2, respectively. If he is going to fill up the box score, he will be incredible valuable for NBA DFS.
Bust Candidates
Kelly Olynyk vs Celtics: DraftKings: $4,000, 93.0% Bust | FanDuel: $6,500, 99.9% Bust
The Celtics have held Olynyk in check this series. Through three games, he has shot a combined 3-for-15 overall, including a terrible Game 3 in which he missed all of his six shots. Olynyk is also not adding much else, totaling just two rebounds in each game.
Andre Iguodala vs Celtics: DraftKings: $3,200, 96.3% Bust | FanDuel: $6,500, 100% Bust
Iguodala has had back-to-back games of seven minutes on the floor, which is nowhere near enough to be valuable for NBA DFS. On top of that, he turned in the rare 0.0 percent usage game in Game 2. The upside just isn’t there for the veteran.
Robert Williams vs Heat: DraftKings: $2,000, 89.6% Bust | FanDuel: $6,500, 100% Bust
After a few solid games strung together last series, it’s clear that Miami is not the matchup for Williams. He has played in just one of the games, attempting one shot.
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