We have just the single game for NBA DFS tonight, with the Denver Nuggets looking to tie the series with the Los Angeles Lakers. With Denver’s ability to pour it on at any moment, there’s a number of different routes in your lineup construction tonight.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Thursday, Sept. 24.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day. DraftKings percentages have not yet been made available, as of 1 pm EST.
Boom Candidates
Nikola Jokic vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $12,000, 30.6% Boom | FanDuel: $15,000, 1.5% Boom
Jokic did not have to score as much last game in Denver’s win, putting up just 22 points. However, he hit nine of 14 shots. With this efficiency, his scoring should rise, assuming Denver has to play from behind today at some point. Jokic continues to be a triple-candidate every time he steps on the floor, making him a boom candidate again tonight.
Anthony Davis vs. Nuggets: DraftKings: $12,400, 19.4% Boom | FanDuel: $15,500, 0.7% Boom
Davis really struggled from an NBA DFS perspective last game. While he scored 27 points, he grabbed just two rebounds and did not block a shot. This seems like an outlier performance, as he averaged 11.4 rebounds and one block over the five games prior. Davis should continue to score well, and his rebounding numbers will bounce back.
Jamal Murray vs. Lakers: DraftKings: $10,600, 11.0% Boom | FanDuel: $13,000, 0.2% Boom
Murray had another one of those games where he took over, putting up 28 points, eight rebounds and 12 assists. He is capable of this at any point, and we can assume he will come right back out and continue his aggressive play tonight. If the shots are falling, we could see another amazing performance from the young guard.
Bust Candidates
Rajon Rondo vs Nuggets: DraftKings: $7,400, 68.1% Bust | FanDuel: $10,000, 100% Bust
Trailing in Game 3, Rondo was asked to play 30 minutes, which was great for his NBA DFS value. However, he did not see much floor time when the Lakers were in control (average 21.5 minutes in Games 1 and 2). In your lineup construction for tonight, you probably do not want to include Rondo if you are assuming the Lakers will bounce back and take control from start to finish.
Kyle Kuzma vs Nuggets: DraftKings: $5,200, 71.7% Bust | FanDuel: $9,500, 100% Bust
Much like Rondo, Kuzma played more minutes last game as a result of the Lakers chasing points. Unlike Rondo, Kuzma continued to struggle. He scored 11 points but grabbed just one rebound in 26 minutes, leading to another massive bust for Kuzma. The upside does not see there for the young Laker this postseason.
Paul Millsap vs Lakers: DraftKings: $6,000, 61.6% Bust | FanDuel: $9,000, 99.7% Bust
Despite averaging 29.5 minutes over the past two games, Millsap has not held much value for NBA DFS. He has scored in single digits in five straight games, made just two field goals in each of these games and totaled more than one assist just once. In other words, most of his fantasy points are coming from his rebounding average, which is 6.0 over the past five game. However, this is not enough value to play him today, with such a low ceiling.
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