We have just the single game for NBA DFS tonight, with the Boston Celtics looking to avoid elimination against the Miami Heat. With this series being relatively close throughout, there are a number of different ways to build a single game lineup tonight.
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
Related NBA DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NBA DFS Live Before Lock
- Building Blocks: NBA DFS Picks, Values and Studs for DraftKings + FanDuel
- NBA Rankings from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- NBA DFS Projections from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s NBA Ownership Projections (PREMIUM)
The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool, Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Friday, Sept. 25.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
Boom Candidates
Jae Crowder vs. Celtics: DraftKings: $5,600, 9.8% Boom | FanDuel: $9,500, 0.1% Boom
Crowder had a poor outing last game, but he has been among the most consistent players in the postseason, so we can expect him to return to form tonight. Prior to last game, he had scored in double digits seven games in a row, and he had five or more rebounds in five of those seven games. For his cheap salary, he is a good option tonight.
Jayson Tatum vs. Heat: DraftKings: $10,600, 7.8% Boom | FanDuel: $16,000, 0.0% Boom
Tatum is another player that struggled last game. He did not score a single point in the first half, yet he finished the game with 28 total points. Hopefully we can see Tatum’s second half production sustained over four quarters. The upside he showed in the second half last game makes him an obvious great play in NBA DFS tonight, as he essentially hit value in just one half of play in Game 4. Tatum is a 30-point double-double candidate tonight.
Gordon Hayward vs. Heat: DraftKings: $6,400, 9.3% Boom | FanDuel: $10,000, 0.2% Boom
Hayward has played two games since returning, seeing the floor 30 minutes in each. We could see his minutes take a slight uptick tonight, increasing his scoring opportunities. He put up 14 points and seven rebounds last game. Hayward has 20-point upside tonight, and we have seen his ability to rack up steals in a hurry.
Bust Candidates
Kelly Olynyk vs Celtics: DraftKings: $3,600, 99.0% Bust | FanDuel: $6,500, 100% Bust
Olynyk has been held under 15 minutes of playing time in every game this series. On top of that, he has shot a combined 3-of-15 from the floor, making just one shot from deep. If he is not seeing minutes and also missing shots, Olynyk is completely useless for both NBA DFS and his team.
Robert Williams vs Heat: DraftKings: $2,600, 91.0% Bust | FanDuel: $6,500, 100% Bust
Williams played last game, seeing the floor 12 minutes. However, it is not a guarantee he will even see the floor tonight. On top of that, he hasn’t scored more than four points in 20 days. There are better cheap options available today.
Daniel Theis vs Heat: DraftKings: $5,000, 75.0% Bust | FanDuel: $8,000, 97.9% Bust
This has not been the series for Theis. His usage has been at 10.2 percent or lower in three of his last four games. Theis has scored in single digits in five straight games, and he has not grabbed double-digit rebounds since Game 1 of the Toronto Raptors series.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE.
