In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 16
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom CandidatesÂ
Tobias Harris vs. Grizzlies: $7,500/$7,500
27.2% DraftKings Boom/35.6% FanDuel Boom
Joel Embiid is out for the 76ers today, which raises the NBA DFS points ceiling for both Tobias Harris and the next man on this list. In 72 minutes where Harris has been on the floor without Embiid this season, he has a 24.6% usage rate, which is a 1.8% bump. Harris also has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.41 FanDuel points per minute. With Awesemo projecting Harris to play just north of 34 minutes, keeping this same per minute pace would lead to a solid NBA DFS day for him. With a spread of just one point, this game is also expected to be a competitive one, allowing the possibility of Harris seeing the floor for even longer.
Dwight Howard vs. Grizzlies: $4,300/$4,400
45.4% DraftKings Boom/53.7% FanDuel Boom
Dwight Howard has the highest probability to be a “boom” play on both DraftKings and FanDuel today. Embiid is out, so slide Howard into the starting lineup with a massive role increase. He is projected to play 26 minutes in this game. Howard has been efficient lately, shooting 17-of-26 over the past five games. This gives him obvious double-double upside, with the possibility of a big day, if he adds defensive stats.
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Christian Wood vs. Spurs: $8,700/$9,000
35.8% DraftKings Boom/40.9% FanDuel Boom
The Rockets take on the Spurs early today, and neither site is including the first two games in the main slate for daily fantasy basketball contests. Still, if you are playing the two-game slate, Christian Wood is a player you need to pay attention to. John Wall is out again, and Danuel House and DeMarcus Cousins will join him as inactives. Without Cousins, Wood will play all the minutes he can handle today, as Houston needs his size. Woods has had a usage rate above 30% in three of his past four games. This has resulted in some nice performances for NBA DFS, including a 27-point, 15-rebounds performance last time out. He has that potential again today, with a reasonable price.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
Terry Rozier vs. Raptors: $6,600/$6,900
65.2% DraftKings Bust/62.9% FanDuel Bust
Terry Rozier is coming off a big game, which has led to his price rising but his NBA projections staying roughly the same. With zero consistency this season and an inflated price, Rozier is extremely tough to trust today. While Rozier has continued to start, the rookie LaMelo Ball is the player impressing off the bench, earning a larger role every time he steps onto the floor. With Rozier always sharing the floor with either Ball or Devonte’ Graham, his role as the main ball handler has continued to diminish. Along with that, both Ball and Graham love to shoot the ball, which really caps the upside for Rozier most nights. Priced in “no man’s land,” he doesn’t make much sense for NBA DFS today.
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