In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
Not a member of Awesemo? No worries, sign up HERE to gain access to the world’s best DFS player’s projections, rankings, tools and premium live blog. Use promo code NBASTRATEGY for half off your first week!
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of our boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x points/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points about their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Wednesday, March 11.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
NBA DFS Picks: Boom Candidates
Julius Randle at Atlanta Hawks: DraftKings: PF/C, $7,800, 26.2% Boom | FanDuel: PF, $7,600, 35.8% Boom
The Knicks are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but after getting in foul trouble last night, Julius Randle only 26 minutes. This means fatigue shouldn’t be an issue, as he faces a positive matchup with Atlanta, a matchup where Randle exploded for 35 points and 18 rebounds against just a month ago. Over the past four weeks, Randle has been performing at a high level, averaging 1.2 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute. In a game where he should have some of the fresher legs and an exploitable matchup, Randle should get all the usage he can handle tonight.
Chris Paul vs Utah Jazz: DraftKings: PG, $7,600, 16.7% Boom | FanDuel: PG, $7,500, 28.8% Boom
The veteran point guard has had two full days of rest, but it is what Chris Paul did before the rest that has us excited. Paul put up back-to-back big performances, outperforming value by at least 10 points in both. Will he make it three in a row? Since the start of February, Paul has been averaging 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.19 FanDuel points per minute. Utah is in the bottom third against point guards, giving Paul a great opportunity to keep the hot play going.
Thon Maker vs Philadelphia 76ers: DraftKings: PF/C, $3,100, 28.1% Boom | FanDuel: C, $4,000, 17.9% Boom
You never love the feeling doing it, but playing someone from the Pistons tonight could be smart. With John Henson out for Detroit, Thon Maker will again be given minutes. He is a better play on DraftKings, where he is essentially minimum salary, but $4,000 on FanDuel is still doable. During the four-game stretch in February where Maker was given 20 minutes in each, he averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute. He could easily recreate this type of performance tonight, and it doesn’t take much to boom at $3,100.
Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, NBA DFS<share articles and have lots of giveaways. Just click HERE
NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Cam Reddish vs New York Knicks: DraftKings: SG/SF, $4,900, 61.8% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $5,000, 52.0% Bust
Cam Reddish‘s last game was an outlier. He ended up playing 40 minutes and he grabbed seven rebounds, the most since mid-January. Because of this big performance, his salary increased, and now he is at risk of busting. Reddish is inconsistent on offense, shooting 38 percent for the season, but mixing in random strong performances. He truly is a boom-or-bust player, but with the increase in salary, the likelihood of him busting increased quite a bit.
Kristaps Porzingis vs Denver Nuggets: DraftKings: C, $9,400, 56.2% Bust | FanDuel: PF, $9,500, 42.2% Bust
Kristaps Porzingis could end up being ruled out tonight altogether, which would make the decision to play him or not clear. But even if he is active, he is likely to bust. Porzingis has scored in the single digits in back-to-back games despite playing 38 minutes in each. He also would be up against Nikola Jokic, who matches up well with Porzingis. Don’t even bother debating making room in your lineup for the Dallas big man.
Derrick Favors at Sacramento Kings: DraftKings: C, $5,200, 61.2% Bust | FanDuel: C, $5,400, 48.1% Bust
The new-look Pelicans are a fun team to watch, with weapons all over the court. The man often forgot about is Derrick Favors, and the inconsistency shows in the stats. He has busted in three of his last four games, and he has attempted double-digit shots just once since the start of February. The chances of him getting a double-double are slim because of the presence of Zion Williamson also in the frontcourt. The ceiling for Favors tonight essentially is hitting value, with the possibility of busting being just as likely.
Looking for more NBA DFS content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on our NBA home page, just click HERE
