Wednesday brings in the Western Conference side of the NBA’s Play-In Tournament. Let’s look at the two-game main slate and discuss the top NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups. Don’t forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS home page for more great written daily fantasy basketball content, including the FREE NBA Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Wednesday, May 19th
Yahoo Play of the Day — Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 47.12 | DraftKings: 46.53
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 41.6% | FanDuel 39.4% | DraftKings 23.8%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $44 | FanDuel $11,000 | DraftKings $10,200
Tonight Anthony Davis is getting a favorable matchup against Golden State and a nice Yahoo salary of $44. The Awesemo projection systems have Davis and Stephen Curry projected within 2 fantasy points, but Curry’s backers will be paying nearly a 15% premium via this direct comparison.
This should be a spirited matchup, and it would not be a surprise to see Davis on the court for 40-ish minutes. Golden State is not equipped to deal with him, and he will be the offensive focal point seeing upwards of 20 field-goal attempts and likely double-digit rebounds.
Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 49.02 | DraftKings: 52.53
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 36.4% | FanDuel 49.6% | DraftKings 47.4%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $50 | FanDuel $10,400 | DraftKings $10,100
DraftKings and FanDuel were nowhere near as aggressive with the salary for Curry. This is going to lead to a situation where he will be on at least half of all rosters tonight. Curry had a career-high 32 points per game in his age-33 season, leading the league for the second time in his career. Additionally, his 5.5 rebounds were also a career best, as were his 12.7 3-point attempts per game. The stroke is as sweet as ever, with a 60.5% effective field-goal rate and a triple slash of 48.2%/42.1%/91.6%. In his last 22 games, Curry attempted fewer than 20 field goals only twice, going for 18 both games. The volume will be there tonight.
Good Value
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
With the Spurs sporadically resting various players down the stretch, it looks like the salary algorithms have not fully adjusted for the resumption of heavy minutes in this win-or-go-home game tonight. Derrick White is still out with his ankle injury, and though Trey Lyles is listed as questionable with his own ankle issue, he has played in one game over the last two months — and that was back on March 24. There is no tomorrow essentially, so expect heavy minutes from DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker and Jakob Poeltl, who will likely mark Jonas Valanciunas whenever he is on the court.
Keldon Johnson and Rudy Gay are the wild cards, as they should have a minutes floor in the 20 to 22 range, but there is upside for foul trouble, in-game injury, hot-hand situations, etc. The long shot will be Gorgui Dieng, who is likely only to see more than a handful of minutes if Poeltl is in foul trouble or completely overmatched against Valanciunas.
Memphis has also significantly shortened its rotation down the stretch, and gamers can expect its starting five to all see at least 30 to 32 minutes, with Dillon Brooks and Ja Morant the most likely to broach 35 to 36 minutes. Valanciunas is the top choice, and Morant and Brooks are a close second. Jaren Jackson Jr. is the player with the most upside that may be overlooked by gamers when considering the four-team player pool. If Grayson Allen is out, that would boost Desmond Bane, or at least secure him for 15 to 17 minutes. Deep reaches would be Tyus Jones and De’Anthony Melton as the backup facilitators behind Morant and Kyle Anderson.
Risky Value
Andre Drummond: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 31.87 | DraftKings: 31.88
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 30.0% | FanDuel 16.8% | DraftKings 21.6%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $22 | FanDuel $7,000 | DraftKings $6,400
The majority of Andre Drummond’s value comes from rebounds and close-in buckets. Because of the unconventional lineup favored by Golden State with Draymond Green as the small-ball center, Drummond may only see minutes while Kevon Looney is on the court. Even then, his second-half minutes are risky since the Lakers can easily roll with Davis as their center since he is unlikely to complain with the postseason on the line if Los Angeles cannot win one of their next two games. The salary, and even the roster spot, taken up by Drummond are better used on other options.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Alex Caruso: LAL vs. GSW – $10
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: LAL vs. GSW – $13
- Kevon Looney: GSW at LAL – $10
Final Thoughts on the Wednesday, May 19th NBA DFS Slate
Much like Tuesday night when the games were still in question, rotations are going to be tighter as teams will be rolling with eight or nine players. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
