NBA DFS action on Monday, March 1, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a solid seven-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 8:00 p.m. EST with a five game slate. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter, LaMelo Ball and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Monday, March 1st
Yahoo Play of the Day – Enes Kanter: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 38.69 | DraftKings: 39.21
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 51.4% | FanDuel 27.7% | DraftKings 16.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $24 | FanDuel $6,300 | DraftKings $7,200
Today there are some amazing centers in the mix, with Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Jarrett Allen near the top of the list. However, on Yahoo Enes Kanter stands out with his discounted salary in a terrific matchup with Charlotte. Last night the Hornets stole a game in the final seconds from Sacramento, and now they are traveling up the coast to Portland. Cody Zeller (hip) has missed the last two games, and he is questionable once again. If he continues to be sidelined, that will leave P.J. Washington and Bismack Biyombo the task of keeping Kanter off the glass.
Kanter has been thriving with the increased playing time as the Trail Blazers are still without Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum. Kanter is posting a career-high 11.5 rebounds per game, which is good for seventh in the league. He is averaging 1.14 Yahoo fantasy points per minute, and anything less than a double-double tonight will be a major disappointment.
Damian Lillard: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 55.52 | DraftKings: 59.34
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 34.6% | FanDuel 36.7% | DraftKings 28.4%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $47 | FanDuel $10,100 | DraftKings $10,400
We last saw Damian Lillard in action on Friday when he played a hearty 42 minutes in a loss to the Lakers. Having the weekend to recover should have him refreshed and ready to show out in an excellent matchup tonight. Looking at NBA WOWY, we can see that Lillard is averaging 1.20 Yahoo fantasy points per minute with McCollum on the court. When he is flying solo, that rate jumps to 1.37 Yahoo fantasy points per minute.
Over their last 10 games, Charlotte is playing at the third-fastest pace in the league, with a bottom-10 defensive efficiency rating. The Hornets are ceding 121.9 points to their opponents over their last eight games in regulation. This includes an unfathomable trio of games where they gave up 130 or more points. Fifty fantasy points are definitely on the map for Lillard tonight.
LaMelo Ball: Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 43.67 | DraftKings: 45.78
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 19.6% | FanDuel 29.4% | DraftKings 13.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $7,900 | DraftKings $8,700
Devonte’ Graham has now missed eight of the last 10 games with knee soreness. It certainly would make sense if he were to be held out until after the All-Star Break. LaMelo Ball has certainly become a fixture in the Charlotte starting five, and he has not disappointed at all. In his 13 starts, Ball has averaged 34.7 minutes and 16.0 field-goal attempts, including 6.6 from long range. This has resulted in 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 2.1 combined steals, which translates to just over 40 fantasy points per game. Tonight is another nice matchup against a Portland squad that is violently allergic to playing defense.
Good Value
Houston Rockets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Last night Memphis came out of the gate hot and completely overwhelmed Houston. The score was 63-37 at the half and ultimately got worse for the Rockets as the reserve units squared off in the second half of a 133-84 drubbing. Desmond Bane and Justin Patton were the only starters who played in the fourth quarter. Tonight there is a good chance that John Wall will be held out of the back-to-back. Victor Oladipo (quad) is returning from his most recent one-game absence, otherwise we are back to the same cast of characters. Tonight the Rockets are actually favored by a bucket, and over their last 10 games, the Cavaliers are allowing 120.1 points per 100 possessions, which is the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league for that stretch.
After missing seven of the last 12 games, Oladipo has seen his salary adjusted downward by all of the DFS sites. After Oladipo, the next preferred targets for me will be Danuel House, Jae’Sean Tate and then a sprinkling of Eric Gordon, Sterling Brown and David Nwaba. Ideally we can chalk last night up as an aberration, and this should hopefully be a more competitive tilt.
Risky Value
Justin Patton: Houston Rockets vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 14 | DraftKings: 14.18
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 1% | FanDuel 2.5% | DraftKings 23.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $10 | FanDuel $3,500 | DraftKings $3,200
Currently Justin Patton is gathering some traction on DraftKings as an extreme punt option. While we can play two centers on Yahoo and DraftKings, the opportunity cost is high tonight. Using Patton in one of those slots means we are forgoing Kanter, Embiid, Jokic, Vucevic and Allen.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see that Patton has only a 3.6% chance of appearing in the optimal lineup. This gives him a -19.7 leverage score. Even at his low salary, he has only a 1.6% chance of reaching his boom threshold of 26 DraftKings points. On the flipside, there is a 62.9% chance he performs at his bust of 16 DraftKings points. In the last four seasons, Patton has appeared in a grand total of 13 NBA games. Over 83 G-League games, he averaged 11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Patton has been with four different NBA teams and currently is on a two-way contract. This is likely his last chance for NBA relevance. Even if he draws a second start, I would rather let other gamers assume the risk of a mediocre-to-poor performance.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Dylan Windler: CLE at HOU – $10
- Malik Monk: CHA at POR – $12
- Sterling Brown: HOU vs. CLE – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Enes Kanter: POR vs. CHA – 1.50x multiplier
- Jarrett Allen: CLE at HOU – 1.30x multiplier
- Michael Porter Jr.: DEN at CHI – 1.60x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Monday, Mar. 1 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight is a bit tricky, as we are unlikely to have news on Gordon Hayward, Graham and Zeller. They are playing in the last game of the night, which tips off with an hour and a half gap from the next closest start time. This could keep the popularity of the Charlotte trio suppressed as compared to knowing their availability at first tip. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
