Thursday, June 3, brings a pair of Game 6 thrillers, with the hosts in Portland and Los Angeles at risk of seeing their seasons end tonight. Let’s look at the four-team player pool and discuss the top NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups. Don’t forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS home page for more great written daily fantasy basketball content, including the FREE NBA Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium Player Projections.***
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Thursday, June 3rd
Yahoo Play of the Day — Damian Lillard: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 47.82 | DraftKings: 50.94
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 44.2% | FanDuel 43.2% | DraftKings 40.0%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $11,000 | DraftKings $10,300
While there is some risk here since Damian Lillard played 52 minutes on Monday in the double-overtime thriller, it is hard to avoid him at his very reasonable $45 salary on Yahoo. Even in the three non-overtime games, he still has played 40-plus twice and taken at least 24 shots twice. This is win-or-start-summer-vacation time for the Trail Blazers, who will be pulling out all the stops in Portland tonight as 5-point favorites.
LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 46.33 | DraftKings: 49.06
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 51.8% | FanDuel 48.0% | DraftKings 48.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $43 | FanDuel $10,600 | DraftKings $10,100
There have been enough twists and turns in this series to rival that of any whodunit mystery plot. However, tonight the Lakers are on the brink of elimination. Anthony Davis (groin) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are game-time decisions, and their statuses will likely not be known until just before tipoff. The Lakers are 2-point favorites, but is that because of the public backers, because Davis may play or because it is nearly unfathomable to think about LeBron James being eliminated in the first round of the postseason? LeBron is wrapping up his 18th season and is starting to look like he may not be immortal after all. It is hard to envision less than 40 minutes unless this game is out of hand. The real question is, how comfortable does it feel to go against LeBron?
Good Value
Michael Porter Jr: Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 36.79 | DraftKings: 38.65
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 42% | FanDuel 40.8% | DraftKings 47.0%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $28 | FanDuel $7,600 | DraftKings $6,900
This has been a mercurial postseason for young Michael Porter Jr. Game 4 was an unmitigated disaster, and Game 5 was redemption time. The truth clearly is somewhere in the middle, but he has a favorable salary, particularly with such a thin player pool and with his attainable upside of 40-plus fantasy point. It would be smart to have him in the majority of rosters Thursday night.
Risky Value
Dennis Schroder: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 24.36 | DraftKings: 25.38
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 26.2% | FanDuel 22.6% | DraftKings 19.8%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $20 | FanDuel $6,300 | DraftKings $5,900
Avoiding Dennis Schroder as recommended here on Tuesday certainly worked out, but in no way, shape or form did anyone imagine single-digit fantasy points would be the outcome. Today the expectations are the same, and that would be 12 to 15 fantasy points, as LeBron continues to dominate the ball and Alex Caruso is getting more time as the secondary facilitator.
The Awesemo Boom/Bust tool shows that Schroder is gaining popularity on FanDuel. That makes sense, as there are only four teams in the player pool and two point guards are required. Lillard clearly needs to be one, though Chris Paul, Monte Morris, Cameron Payne and Facundo Campazzo are better plays than Schroder.
There is a 24.8% probability of Schroder being in the FanDuel optimal lineup. However, there is a paltry 2.6% chance of Schroder exceeding his boom score of 41.5 FanDuel points. Conversely, there is a 70.9% likelihood of him failing to reach his bust threshold of 31.5 FanDuel points. Through the first four games of the series he has had declining production, with 34.1, 32.6, 16.3 and 6.3 FanDuel points. Yes, 30-ish fantasy points is in the realm of possibility, but there is only a one-in-five shot of that being tonight’s outcome.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Kyle Kuzma: LAL vs. PHX – $13
- Carmelo Anthony: POR vs. DEN – $10
- Alex Caruso: LAL vs. PHX – $10
Final Thoughts on the Thursday, June 3rd NBA DFS Slate
News for Davis and Caldwell-Pope as game-time decisions will likely be a long wait. While Davis is not expected to play, it is unlikely that news will be revealed before the first game tips off. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
