NBA DFS Picks: Value, Stud & Fade for 9/11

NBA playoff action is underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, Yahoo and FanDuel. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around for the Friday, Sept. 11 slate.

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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for Sept. 11

Value Pick: Norman Powell

DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $5,000, Yahoo $13

How much does Nick Nurse trust Powell? In Game 6 with the season on the line in overtime, he drew up an isolation play for him. He failed to score on Kemba Walker and the play was kind of terrible, but going to Powell in that situation leads me to think Powell will play a significant role in Game 7. To help extend the season, Powell played 38 minutes and scored 34 DraftKings points on Wednesday. Sure, those numbers were buoyed by overtime, but who else is going to play for Toronto down the stretch? Serge Ibaka has played well in spurts, although he’s dealing with a sprained ankle and is not at full health. He only played 21 minutes on Wednesday. Powell also appears a much stronger option than Marc Gasol, who is not providing much to the Raptors in the postseason.

Stud Pick: Kawhi Leonard

DraftKings $10,400, FanDuel $11,000, Yahoo $50

I think the Clippers should close out the Nuggets pretty easily tonight. The betting market agrees, and Los Angeles enters Game 5 favored by eight points. With a win, the Clippers move to the Western Conference Finals. I don’t think the Clippers will play this game conservatively because I think they want as much rest as possible when going up against the Lakers. Apologies to the Rockets, but I think we are collectively writing them off at this point. More importantly, the Clippers’ core guys should see regular minutes even though this isn’t a must-win spot for the Clips.

As for when Leonard is on the court, Denver doesn’t have anything for him on defense. This is where the Nuggets really miss Will Barton. That is not to say that he’s a spectacular defender, but he’s probably the most equipped player on the team to match up against Leonard. Last game, Leonard came an assist shy of a triple-double and put up 71.25 DraftKings points. For the series, Leonard is scoring 1.39 DraftKings points per minute, and I expect around 40 minutes as the Clippers look to cap this series.

Fade Pick: Jamal Murray

DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $8,200, Yahoo $35

From a fantasy standpoint, Murray continues to disappoint against the Clippers. Due to his big games against the Jazz, his salary went up and never went back down to normal levels in this series. Against a Los Angeles team with strong perimeter defenders, Murray is only averaging 35.88 DraftKings point in this series. This isn’t bad production, but it isn’t enough for where he’s priced. The opportunity cost of rostering Murray comes at the expense of rostering guys like Leonard, Paul George, Kyle Lowry, Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic, which is a trade-off I am not willing to make. Murray is the weakest fantasy producer of the expensive players on this slate.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.