NBA playoff action is underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for the Monday, Sept. 7 slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for 9/7
Value Pick: Mason Plumlee
DraftKings $3,300, FanDuel $3,700, Yahoo $10
Nikola Jokic is dealing with a wrist injury and is listed as questionable to play. Realistically, Jokic will likely play tonight, but I want to prepare for the chance that he isn’t able to suit up. Since this is the later starting of the two games, there is a chance that we won’t get an update on Jokic until after lock.
If Jokic is out, I expect Plumlee to start at center. He’s playing the center minutes behind Jokic during the playoffs, and as a nice positive, he’s a strong fantasy producer. He’s scoring 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season. Even if Jokic plays, there is a chance he will be limited. If this is the case, Plumlee could pick up a few extra minutes. There is also a possibility that Jokic could play at less than 100% and get injured in a similar situation to what we saw happen to Giannis Antetokounmpo yesterday. I understand that I am grasping at straws here, but this is a two-game slate without any obvious value plays.
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Stud Pick: Kyle Lowry
DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $9,200, Yahoo $33
I will keep riding Lowry. It is so hard for me to get off of him when looking at how his current workload. Toronto is doing everything in its power to win this series, and it starts with playing Lowry for close to entire games. He played 45.2 minutes per game in the last two, producing an average of 54.63 DraftKings points. He’s too cheap across the industry for this monstrous workload. There isn’t a player on tonight’s slate with the same combination of floor and ceiling of Lowry. Both Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet also make for strong plays with increased workload, although Lowry is my top play of the three.
Fade Pick: Jaylen Brown
DraftKings $7,500, FanDuel $7,700, Yahoo $26
This not the first time I am recommending Brown as a fade. Frankly, it didn’t go all that well last time. Nonetheless, I project him as a poor points-per-dollar play in NBA DFS across all sites. This is typically the case for me with Brown in the playoffs and last game was finally a slate where it paid off for me. I am hoping for more of the same tonight.
I am not sure that Brown’s offense converts well into the playoffs. He isn’t much of a playmaker and has more turnovers than assists in the playoffs. When he does play well in the playoffs from a fantasy perspective, it’s usually because of defensive stats. He had a two-game stretch in this series with six blocks and three steals, which I don’t see as repeatable. Brown had under 20 points in every game this series and made more than 40% of his shots from the field just once in his last six games. It’s hard to see a path to success for Brown at his current salary unless he puts up a ton of stocks again.
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