NBA playoff action is underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for the Tuesday, Sept. 8 slate.
NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for 9/8
Value Pick: Rajon Rondo
DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $6,200, Yahoo $13
Rondo is a site-specific play. On FanDuel, he is way overpriced and a player to avoid, while he’s way underpriced on DraftKings and easily the top per-dollar play on the slate. The correct pricing is in the middle of his salaries on the two sites. In full disclosure, I am not much of a Rondo fan, and I think the “playoff Rondo” narrative is a farce. He was great earlier in his career but barely played in the playoffs over the last eight years. Rondo tallied a total of 15 playoff games over the last eight years and generally hasn’t played terrifically over this stretch.
All of this aside, Rondo is nearly min price on DraftKings, and it’s clear that he is a big part of the Lakers’ game plan. Even though he struggled in Game 1, Los Angeles played him 29 minutes in Game 2, and he arguably played his best game of the season. As a guy who scores about a fantasy point per minute, I think Rondo is more likely to score over 30 fantasy points than under 20 fantasy points. It’s hard for me to justify making lineups without him on DraftKings unless some other crazy value plays open up.
Related NBA DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NBA DFS Live Before Lock
- Building Blocks: NBA DFS Picks, Values, Studs and Fades
- DFS Review: Studying Five- and Six-Game Slates
- NBA Rankings from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- NBA DFS Projections from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s NBA Ownership Projections
Stud Pick: Eric Bledsoe
DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $5,200, Yahoo $20
Once again, Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight. Considering how much pain he was in when rolling his ankle again in Game 3, I think Giannis is more likely to sit than play tonight. We still need an update on his status, but my initial lineups are getting built under the assumption that Antetokounmpo will not play. Even if he’s in, I expect he will not be at full health and will either play fewer than normal minutes or defer to other starters more than normal.
Khris Middleton draws more of the public attention in games missed by Giannis, but Bledsoe also sees a big boost. When Giannis is off the court, Bledsoe has a 31.2% usage rating and scores 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. I also hate to keep bringing up the playing of the Bucks’ starters as a point every other day, but Budenholzer finally played Bledsoe and Middleton big minutes on Sunday. It looks like we can finally count on core players from Milwaukee playing close to 40 minutes.
Fade Pick: Markieff Morris
DraftKings $3,500, FanDuel $4,400, Yahoo $10
Morris played a key role off the bench for the Lakers in their Game 2 win over the Rockets. The difference is that I view the success Rondo had as a bit more sustainable from a fantasy standpoint. Morris mostly shot 3’s and made six of his eight shots from the field. He made four triples, and all of them came within the span of a couple minutes. Beyond that stretch, he didn’t do a ton. Despite this, Morris is more expensive for tonight’s slate, and I doubt he can replicate Sunday’s performance. Not only did he make 75% of shots in that game, Morris played over 20 minutes. This was the only time in the bubble he’s played more than 20 minutes, so I expect him to play less tonight.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE.