The NBA season is winding down, but there is still NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Wednesday’s slate.
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Value Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
DraftKings $3,700, FanDuel $3,500, Yahoo $13, SuperDraft 2x
In the Pelicans’ final game of the season, it is about time for Alexander-Walker to get unleashed. The rookie fell out of the rotation after struggling earlier in the season, but now the results don’t matter. At this point, New Orleans is playing for the future. I doubt that we will see any run from the veterans, and it’s time for guys like Alexander-Walker and Jaxson Hayes to get some playing time. For today, Jrue Holiday, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are all out, while Josh Hart is listed as questionable.
When on the court, Alexander-Walker shows potential as a fantasy producer. His efficiency is awful, although this is not too important for what we want. What is more important is that he’s not afraid to shoot and will likely continue to shoot even if his shot isn’t falling. In his limited minutes during his rookie season, Alexander-Walker sported a 25.5% usage rating despite making just 35.1% of his shots from the field. Missing two or three times is not going to discourage him. Generally, he’s produced good fantasy results when playing extended minutes, and he scores nearly a fantasy point per minute.
Stud Pick: Damian Lillard
DraftKings $11,200, FanDuel $10,100, Yahoo $51, SuperDraft 1x
Yesterday proved one thing: Minutes become incredibly difficult to predict at the end of the season. While most teams lack motivation to play stars regular minutes, Portland needs a win today. If the Blazers beat the Nets, they will lock up the top seed heading into the play-in game. As the Trail Blazers push for the playoffs, Lillard is playing some of the best basketball of his career. He comes into today with back-to-back 5o-point games, and his playing time more secure than any other player on the slate.
While some of what Lillard is doing is not sustainable, it almost doesn’t matter because of how the slate is set up. With players likely to rest and value opening up, we need to spend salary somewhere. This is where the usage and playing time of Lillard is important. In the last four games, he’s averaging over 40 minutes with a 36.5% usage rate. There is no reason to think that Lillard and the Blazers will ease off the gas pedal at this point. In addition, he draws a favorable matchup against what is left of the Nets’ roster.
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Fade Pick: C.J. McCollum
DraftKings $7,900, FanDuel $7,400, Yahoo $33, SuperDraft 1.3x
Don’t play guys with broken backs in DFS. This is a hard and fast rule that I live my entire DFS career by. Actually, this might be a lie since I have rostered Michael Porter Jr. Anyway, the important takeaway here is that a report came out after the Trail Blazers’ last game that McCollum is playing through a vertebral fracture. With this information in mind, it is no surprise that Lillard is putting Portland on his back. McCollum made just 2-of-14 shots attempts last game, and it stands to reason this injury will limit his production going forward. Instead of McCollum, I prefer to chose from the players on the slate who can comfortably bend over and pick up an object.
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