The NBA season is winding down, but there is still NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Thursday’s slate.
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Value Pick: Bol Bol
DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $3,500, Yahoo $10, SuperDraft 2x
At the time of writing this, I don’t know what the starting lineups look like. However, I do know one thing, there is going to be a ton of value. Of the eight teams playing today, none of them have anything to play for. Playoff spots are not in jeopardy and seeding is finalized. Plenty of players will rest and rostering the cheap players who start is the easiest way to find the top value. While rotations are tough to gauge at this time of the season, it stands to reason that the cheap starters play more than the cheap bench players.
As for Bol Bol, I am hoping he starts. To this point, the Nuggets played starters decent minutes in every game. Nobody on this team received rest in the bubble for anything other than actual injuries. Will Barton and Gary Harris missed every bubble game and the games missed by Jamal Murray were due to a hamstring injury. If this is finally the spot where players like Nikola Jokic get the day off, Bol could enter the starting unit. If this is the case, he profiles as a players with a very fantasy friendly game. He’s shown terrific skill as a pass, his height should lead to rebounds he can shoot threes and his length should create defensive stats. All of us want a slate where Bol is a viable value option, so hopefully the Nuggets come through and start him.
Stud Pick: Tyler Herro
DraftKings $5,700, FanDuel $5,300, Yahoo $18, SuperDraft 1.7x
I cheated a bit here. Herro is not the classic stud type player we think of in DFS. However, this is a slate where all of the high end options could rest or play limited minutes. For this reason, I look at Herro as a guy who could potentially end up leading the slate in fantasy points. Ahead of todays game, Miami ruled out Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. In addition, Derrick Jones, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala all are listed on the injury report as questionable. This opens up a massive amount of playing time and usage to fill in the Miami rotation.
As a rookie who the Heat selected in the first round of the draft, the playing time for Herro appears secure. He isn’t one of the players I fear of resting or playing limited minutes. When shorthanded, Miami typically gives its young guard all the minutes he can handle. In recent games, he played well even with core players active. In his last three games, Herro is averaging about 40 fantasy points across all sites with an average of 24 points per game.
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Fade Pick: Joel Embiid
DraftKings $9,900, FanDuel $8,500, Yahoo $39, SuperDraft 1.1x
Maybe Embiid rests, maybe he plays, but one certainty is that I will not roster him. Since Ben Simmons is already for the season due to a knee injury, there is reason for Philly to push its star center in the final game of the season. No matter what the outcome of this game is, the 76ers walk away as the six seed in the East. Last game, the expectation was for Embiid to play without a minutes restriction. This did not end coming to fruition. Embiid banged his hand in the early going of the game, went for X-rays and never returned. The star center finished playing just 13 minutes. He is too untrustworthy for me to invest any money into at this point in the season. Any other star player that is active is likely to log more minutes than Embiid.
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