Well folks, does it get more exciting than dual Game 7 action on a Sunday Funday?! The NBA DFS main slate action tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Below, we will examine the player pool and break down the best NBA DFS picks today for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups on Sunday, May 15.
NBA DFS Picks: Fantasy Basketball Building Blocks Today | Sunday, May 15
Yahoo Play of the Day — Marcus Smart: Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 32.27 | DraftKings: 32.94
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 45.8% | FanDuel 53.3% | DraftKings 42.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $20 | FanDuel $6,500 | DraftKings $6,300
It seems that Marcus Smart has recovered from his various dings and ailments while also embracing his role as the prime facilitator of the Boston offense, along with being his usual tenacious self on defense. In two of the last three games, Smart has tallied 35 or more fantasy points, and in the “worst” he still had 27, which makes him the best point-per-dollar option on Yahoo today. In this win-or-go-home matchup today, he should be on the court for at least 40 minutes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 63.86 | DraftKings: 66.34
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 40.4% | FanDuel 53.9% | DraftKings 36.0%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $58 | FanDuel $12,000 | DraftKings $12,000
The first game of Sunday’s slate seems to be the tightest contest. Milwaukee and Boston are squaring off for the seventh time in the second round after the Bucks closed out Brooklyn in four during the opening series. Giannis Antetokounmpo has recorded at least 40 real points in three of the last four games while producing 59 or more fantasy points in all four tilts. Luka Doncic is the only player who has a median fantasy projection within 15 points of Antetokounmpo. Be sure to have the two-time NBA MVP well represented on your rosters.
Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 54.07 | DraftKings: 58.24
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 27.8% | FanDuel 38.4% | DraftKings 25.6%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $56 | FanDuel $11,600 | DraftKings $11,600
On Friday, Luka Doncic rallied his team to a 113-86 victory in Dallas over the Suns, forcing a Game 7. That was by far his best appearance since the first game against Phoenix. Doncic has been steady with at least 47 fantasy points in nine postseason games since returning midway through the first round after recovering from a lower leg issue. Doncic is a near lock for a double-double and 50 fantasy points; however, his salary is almost equal to Antetokounmpo, which makes his points per dollar a challenge when creating lineups. Of course, this is strictly from a mathematical perspective, and we need to take into account that he will also be 30%-ish less popular in tournaments.
Choosing Doncic over Antetokounmpo is a game theory move, and while it could pay off handsomely, it does curb the average upside attainability. Using the Awesemo median projections with the Fantasy Cruncher optimizer and no restrictions, we can see an unbiased perspective that looks only at points per dollar. Running 100 lineups on Yahoo, Antetokounmpo is in 58% and Doncic 0%. DraftKings and FanDuel are even more stark, with Giannis in 85% and 100% of 100 lineups and Doncic still not popping up.
Taking a different tack, playing both in the same lineup provides a different result. The median Yahoo outcomes show the best lineup with both superstars is still 11 fantasy points shy of the best lineup featuring only Antetokounmpo. On DraftKings, lineups featuring the duo come within 7 fantasy points of the best lineup, and that gap narrows to just 5 on FanDuel. Sunday should be a fun puzzle for sure!
Devin Booker: Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 43.33 | DraftKings: 44.78
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 34.0% | FanDuel 31.6% | DraftKings 36.0%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $9,300 | DraftKings $8,600
In each of the last four games, Chris Paul has been held in check, failing to reach the 25-fantasy-point threshold. Be it the Dallas defensive scheme, a heavy workload or just bad luck, it is hard to click on Paul’s name. Devin Booker was in elementary school when Paul was drafted out of Wake Forest, and it seems we may officially have a changing of the guard in Phoenix. Booker has been the primary option on offense, and he is also picking up his fair share of assists. Prior to missing all four of his 3-point field goal attempts in Game 6, the 25-year-old was 15-of-27 (55.6%) in the preceding four matchups. Look to Booker as a core play on Sunday who should thrive back in his home gym.
Yahoo Discount Dandies
Pat Connaughton: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ($10): For the third consecutive game, Pat Connaughton and teammate Grayson Allen are both at the $10 Yahoo minimum salary. Allen is starting, but in turn that means he is also spending most of his time alongside higher-usage options, which curbs his upside potential. This does not make Connaughton a shoo-in, as he will still be spending a majority of his time with Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday. Either player could easily splash four 3-pointers, which makes each of them viable. However, Connaughton has more minutes in the fourth quarter than Allen in each of the last three games, including playing every second of the final frame on Friday while Allen never left the bench.
