NBA DFS action on Sunday, Jan. 31, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a four-game main slate. Before you lock in your lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Fred VanVleet, Aaron Gordon, Kevin Durant and more.
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Awesemo’s NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Yahoo Play of the Day – Aaron Gordon: Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 36.74 | DraftKings: 37.94
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 38.2% | FanDuel 63.4% | DraftKings 26.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $28 | FanDuel $5,500 | DraftKings $7,000
Context is everything and looking at Aaron Gordon’s game logs do not tell the full story. Since his game against Charlotte last Monday, the former Arizona Wildcat has dropped two duds, failing to top 20 fantasy points in either matchup. This has created a depressed salary which we will want to take advantage of today. What those game logs do not show is Orlando getting waxed by Sacramento 121-107 and the Los Angeles Clippers 116-90.
In these games the Magic bench was emptied in the final frame and Gordon lost out on between 5-7 minutes in each tilt. Coupled with his poor performance we are seeing his salary discounted by 20% on Yahoo, 10% on DraftKings and an unfathomable 40% on FanDuel (from $7,900 to $5,500) in less than a week. Enjoy the savings and do not worry about the dreadful game logs.
Kevin Durant: Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 38.99 | DraftKings: 39.27
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 17.4% | FanDuel 32.1% | DraftKings 22.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $33 | FanDuel $7,300 | DraftKings $7,000
Fun note it has been just over two years since Kevin Durant last played in his “hometown” against the Wizards. Durant was born in Washington, D.C. and lived in Maryland just outside of the city playing his senior year at Montrose Christian School in Rockville, MD which is noted for it’s basketball squads.
On the four game slate, Durant is a fine option. There is a decent chance he becomes a phenomenal option if James Harden gets the night off. Since joining Brooklyn two weeks ago, Harden has played in eight games averaging a tick shy of 40 minutes per appearance. If Harden sits, Kyrie Irving also becomes a top priority play.
Fred VanVleet: Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 38.15 | DraftKings: 39.61
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 13.4% | FanDuel 17.1% | DraftKings 24.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $8,700 | DraftKings $7,700
Orlando is in the middle of the pack from a both a pace and a defensive efficiency perspective with 101.2 possessions per 48 minutes and allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions. It sounds like Norman Powell (quad) is trending towards missing another game which will increase the available offensive opportunities for the already high usage Fred VanVleet. The former Wichita State Shocker is essentially averaging career highs across the board. The price is very enticing on DraftKings and it is fair on Yahoo and FanDuel. On the latter two sites, VanVleet is also a nice pivot away from his teammate Kyle Lowry who is surging ahead in the projected popularity with his 20-25% salary discount. This leverage makes VanVleet an excellent target in tournaments.
Good Value
Darius Garland: Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 26.58 | DraftKings: 28.34
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 24.6% | FanDuel 26.7% | DraftKings 16.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $17 | FanDuel $5,200 | DraftKings $5,600
It has been five games since Darius Garland returned from an eight game absence. His minutes have gone up each game and he has started the last two. Tonight he should be in line for 30ish minutes against the Timberwolves. On the season Minnesota is playing at the fourth fastest pace with 104.2 possessions per 48 minutes and they have the fifth worst defensive efficiency allowing 111.2 points per 100 possessions. In the three games prior to his injury, Garland was logging 34+ minutes so there is the possibility he plays another 10% over the Awesemo projected 31 minutes tonight.
Terence Davis: Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 20.52 | DraftKings: 22.18
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 17.6% | FanDuel 21.9% | DraftKings 32.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $10 | FanDuel $3,800 | DraftKings $3,500
If Norman Powell is out, we will likely see Terence Davis draw a second straight start. The 23-year old is in his second season with the Raptors. After spending four years with Ole Miss he was undrafted and Toronto has been thrilled to have him aboard. While his origination story is eerily similar to teammate Fred VanVleet, it remains to be seen if he will continue to improve as dramatically as his teammate.
On Friday in his spot start, Davis logged 19 minutes and produced right around 20 fantasy points depending on the scoring system of your preferred site. The downside is that he did not see the floor after the midway point in the third quarter being supplanted by Yuta Watanabe. There is a chance that Watanabe draws the start and if that is the case we should pivot to him. As long as Powell is out, Watanabe still has value off the bench as a differentiation play with only eight teams in the player pool.
Risky Value
Cole Anthony: Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 26.11 | DraftKings: 26.55
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 15.4% | FanDuel 21.2% | DraftKings 14.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $17 | FanDuel $5,200 | DraftKings $5,400
Tonight it looks like rookie Cole Anthony is potentially picking up some traction, particularly on FanDuel. Even though he is the “starting point guard” for the Magic, we need to keep in mind that they have quite a few non-traditional facilitators including Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic who are excellent passers as well as shooting guard Evan Fournier. In the absence of Markelle Fultz we have not seen the extra assists concentrated on any one player in particular.
It has been nice that Anthon has had six assists in three of his last four games. However, in his twelve starts he is averaging a steady 29.6 minutes per game with just 3.8 assists and 11.8 points. In this timeframe he is averaging a pedestrian 0.8 fantasy points per minute. Using the Awesemo Boom-Bust tool we can see that Anthony has a 12.9% chance of being in the optimal lineup tonight. His “boom” score gives him an 8.3% chance of topping 5x his salary + 10 or 37 DraftKings points. The bust score has him producing less than 5x or 27 DraftKings points 52.4% of the time. There are many options who are cheaper and who have more upside.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Aron Baynes: TOR vs. ORL – $10
- Ricky Rubio: MIN vs. CLE – $10
- Robin Lopez: WAS vs. BKN – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Domantas Sabonis: IND vs. PHI – 1.25x multiplier
- Nikola Vucevic: ORL at TOR – 1.20x multiplier
- Russell Westbrook: WAS vs. BKN – 1.25x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Sunday, Jan. 31 NBA DFS Slate
We should have all of the key news by contest lock with three of the four games tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Everything is going to hinge on the status of James Harden, if he is out the above analysis holds true, if he is in then we have to be ready to pivot. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites. A slam dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average option on DraftKings or FanDuel.
