NBA DFS action on Thursday, Feb. 25, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 7:30 p.m. EST with five games. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Julius Randle and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Thursday, February 25th
Yahoo Play of the Day – Julius Randle: New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 45.38 | DraftKings: 48.21
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 26% | FanDuel 31.7% | DraftKings 14.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $40 | FanDuel $8,900 | DraftKings $9,100
This year it is always good to target players going against Sacramento, Washington, Brooklyn, Dallas and Portland. Lucky for us, the first four teams on this list play Thursday night. The Kings are allowing 118.2 points per 100 possessions, which is 2.2 more than the next worst team in the Trail Blazers and nearly 4 points more than the Wizards and Nets.
Julius Randle has graced this article series several times this season. As I have noted over the last month, now that the salary algorithms have caught up with his new baseline production, we need to pick and choose our spots when we employ the versatile big man. Randle continues to play heavy minutes for Tom Thibodeau, which has led to career highs across the board.
Over the last five games since Mitchell Robinson (hand) was sidelined, Randle has averaged nearly 10 minutes per game without Nerlens Noel. This means he is the nominal center during these stretches, and he sees nearly a 20% increase in his fantasy production. In these most recent games without Robinson, Randle is averaging 1.20 Yahoo fantasy points per minute, and tonight he gets a cherry matchup against the weak Kings frontcourt.
Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 59.96 | DraftKings: 63.0
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 25.8% | FanDuel 28.6% | DraftKings 33.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $55 | FanDuel $10,800 | DraftKings $10,400
This season, Nikola Jokic is positioning himself squarely in the MVP conversation. The combination of consistency and upside is enviable. Through 31 games, he has topped 40 Yahoo fantasy points 29 times. In the other two games, he is averaging 36.3 Yahoo fantasy points. All of this has been accomplished via his efficient average 1.56 fantasy points per minute.
If we are looking for raw numbers, Jokic is 10th with 27.0 points per game, 12th with 10.9 rebounds per game, sixth with 8.4 assists per game and has 27 double-doubles, three more than anyone in the league, along with seven triple-doubles, which trails Russell Westbrook by one. Last week in Washington, he tallied 57.9 Yahoo fantasy points in a surprising 2-point loss to the Wizards. Payback will certainly be on the menu tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 59.18 | DraftKings: 61.05
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 25.4% | FanDuel 33.1% | DraftKings 27.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $56 | FanDuel $11,400 | DraftKings $11,000
There are quite a few options at the center position tonight, so if you want to look at someone other than Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a fine luxury play. Milwaukee seems to have righted the ship, running off three straight victories after a five-game skid. Over his last eight games, Giannis has been performing like the two-time reigning NBA MVP. In this stretch he has not scored fewer than 50 fantasy points. The all-around production has been top notch, with 32.6 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 3.6 combined blocks/steals. There really is not much additional insight to add.
Good Value
Monte Morris: Denver Nuggets vs. Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 27.32 | DraftKings: 27.19
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 32% | FanDuel 12.5% | DraftKings 12.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $11 | FanDuel $4,700 | DraftKings $4,800
Gary Harris (adductor), Paul Millsap (knee), JaMychal Green (shoulder) and P.J. Dozier (hamstring) will all miss Thursday’s game against the Wizards. This opens up ample opportunity for Will Barton, who also gives us some leverage away from his teammate Michael Porter Jr. While I agree that at some point we are going to get a 40-fantasy-point performance from Porter, staying away has not burned me yet. Monte Morris may be in line to draw another start against Washington, who tends to prefer smaller lineups. At his current price point, Morris is an intriguing leverage option against the New York point guard situation that we will discuss in our next section.
The tricky part with coach Mike Malone is that he is constantly mixing and matching his closing units based on opponents. Porter should be seeing solid run in the final frame, but it gets a little riskier when looking to Morris and Barton. Both could see significant run, or they could be swapped for 29-year-old rookie Facundo Campazzo on a whim. Their salaries make these three solid options for our cash games, but there is some risk when it comes to a tournament-winning score. The Wizards have been on a roll, winning five straight before losing to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Tuesday. This includes beating the Nuggets in Washington last week. There is a strong possibility that this game will stay reasonably close, which should have Denver relying on their veterans.
Khris Middleton: Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 41.84 | DraftKings: 43.57
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 3.6% | FanDuel 13.5% | DraftKings 8.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $34 | FanDuel $7,600 | DraftKings $8,200
If you have having difficulty with the salary cap constraints accompanying Giannis, then Khris Middleton is a viable alternative. The all-around game provided by Middleton gives him a very safe floor, while the matchup tonight against the Pelicans presents some excellent upside. Middleton is having his best fantasy season ever and is posting career or near career highs with a 49.8% field-goal rate, 43.4% 3-point rate, 20.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists. New Orleans is on a back-to-back, and they have the third-worst defensive efficiency in the league this season. They have been particularly dreadful over their last 10 games, allowing 121.9 points per 100 possessions. With a 242.5 projected point total, we are going to want to have this game represented in most of our rosters.
Risky Value
Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley vs. Sacramento Kings
Elfrid Payton (hamstring) is doubtful, which opens up a starting slot in the Knicks lineup. This is not going unnoticed by the masses, as this duo will be wildly popular. However, they are not without substantial risk. It would make sense for Quickley to enter the starting lineup, but we know that coach Tom Thibodeau is not a fan of rookies. He currently has Quickley serving as the direct backup to Payton and only taking the court when the starter is on the bench. While this is a phenomenal matchup, we each must determine our own risk/reward tolerance.
Derrick Rose is likely the safer option, and he should continue to come off the bench with a higher probability of seeing closer to 26 to 28 minutes than his usual 21 to 23 in his second stint with New York. On DraftKings and Yahoo his $4,600 and $16 salaries are much higher than Quickley’s $4,100 and $10. FanDuel has Rose at $5,700, which means he would need to reach 30 fantasy points before becoming a difference maker on that site. This is reflected in his single-digit popularity.
Finally adding in one more variable, Austin Rivers is slated to return from his non-COVID illness. We have no idea what role he will play other than likely being inserted as soon as Quickley has his first mental lapse or unforced error.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Monte Morris: DEN vs. WAS – $10
- Danny Green: PHI vs. DAL – $11
- Shake Milton: PHI vs. DAL – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Julius Randle: NYK vs. SAC – 1.25x multiplier
- Nikola Jokic: DEN vs. WAS – 1.20x multiplier
- Michael Porter Jr.: DEN vs. WAS – 1.60x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Thursday, Feb. 25 NBA DFS Slate
There is a 2 1/2-hour lag from slate lock through the final games. We will likely be without the Wizards’ and Nuggets’ starting lineups, so be ready to pivot if something unexpected occurs. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
