Tonight six of the seven games tip off within one hour of lock, then there is a two-hour before whatever wacky news comes from the Clippers. There are several key players who are out and several teams that are mailing it in while trying to increase their lottery odds. Let’s dig a little deeper and discuss the top NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Tuesday, May 4th
Yahoo Play of the Day — Delon Wright: Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 38.96 | DraftKings: 38.34
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 78.4% | FanDuel 37.2% | DraftKings 55.0%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $12 | FanDuel $5,200 | DraftKings $5,100
Sometimes a player is in such a good scenario with a low salary that it does not make any sense to avoid him. That is what Delon Wright offers tonight at just $12 on Yahoo. De’Aaron Fox is still in the health and safety protocol, and Tyrese Haliburton is going to be out for at least a week with a knee injury. NBA WOWY shows that in 88 minutes without Fox or Haliburton on the court, Wright is averaging 1.22 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. Tonight anything less than 30 fantasy points will be a disappointment against the Thunder, who are mailing it in right now.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 54.77 | DraftKings: 56.83
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 27.0% | FanDuel 36.0% | DraftKings 36.6%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $54 | FanDuel $11,400 | DraftKings $10,700
This is a key game in the standings, as the Bucks are 2.5 games behind the Nets in the Eastern Conference and the better record will grant home court in the highly likely event these two teams square off in the postseason. On Monday, Giannis Antetokounmpo played 36 minutes with an insane 46.7% usage rate. He was 21-for-36 from the field and 4-for-8 from behind the arc for 49 points. This, along with his eight rebounds, four assists and four combined blocks/steals, gave him 75.6 Yahoo fantasy points. In his two games against Brooklyn Giannis is averaging 37.4 minutes, 31.0 field-goal attempts, 41.5 points, 10.0 rebounds 5.5 assists and 3.0 combined blocks/steals.
Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 49.44 | DraftKings: 53.3
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 13.6% | FanDuel 27.0% | DraftKings 21.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $50 | FanDuel $9.700 | DraftKings $10.400
Absolutely run this back after playing Stephen Curry in the same matchup yesterday. Last night he did not disappoint, with 41 points, four rebounds, eight assists and a steal in 35 minutes. He should be a threat to score 50 Yahoo points once again, and there are plenty of value options to focus on for a stars-and-scrubs roster construction. Draymond Green was phenomenal with a triple-double last night – 10 points, 13 rebounds, 15 assists and five combined blocks/steals. He can be used with or without Curry, and as a bonus, throw in Zion Williamson as an NBA DFS pick for a triple-threat game stack.
Good Value
Marvin Bagley: Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.42 | DraftKings: 38.53
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 43.6% | FanDuel 40.2% | DraftKings 60.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $20 | FanDuel $5,500 | DraftKings $5,000
On Sunday Marvin Bagley received 34 minutes as he helped the Kings beat the Mavericks in Dallas 111-99. While it is incredibly hard to trust coach Luke Walton, it definitely was encouraging to see no limits on Bagley, who was playing only for the second time in six weeks. Without Fox and Haliburton, Bagley should again see field-goal attempts in the mid-teens, and this is actually a winnable game for the Kings, who are 5.5-point road favorites. They are a longshot to make the play-in tournament, but they have been giving it their all with three wins in their last four games.
Risky Value
Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 49.52 | DraftKings: 53.08
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 7.2% | FanDuel 12.2% | DraftKings 17.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $54 | FanDuel $10,900 | DraftKings $10,800
Using the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool can be quite helpful in providing an unbiased opinion. Today there is a 17.1% probability that Luka Doncic will be in the DraftKings optimal lineup. This is right in line with his projected popularity, giving him a neutral leverage score. Today’s DraftKings salary is appropriate given the matchup against Miami. There is still a little upside potential with a 15.9% likelihood that he is able to surpass his boom score of 64.0 DraftKings points. He has a 53.3% chance of falling below his bust score of 54.0 DraftKings points.
When these two teams met on New Year’s Day, Doncic led Dallas to a 93-83 victory with 27 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists and a block for 58.8 DraftKings points. Kristaps Porzingis did not play in that game, and he is doubtful tonight. There will be enough discount dandies that two or three superstars can make it into lineups tonight. Most gamers are going to turn to Antetokounmpo and Curry as their first two options and then likely Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving as their third. Doncic projects for 53.08 DraftKings points, which is essentially a statistical tie with Curry, 2 points above Durant and 3 points behind Giannis.
There is risk in this play, but there is also potential reward if Doncic hits his season average of 55.1 DraftKings points and one of the more popular superstars has a pedestrian performance. Be bold, but also be cognizant of the downside risk.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Jalen McDaniels: CHA at DET – $10
- Terence Davis: SAC at OKC – $10
- Naji Marshall: NOP vs. GSW – $10
Final Thoughts on the Tuesday, May 4th NBA DFS Slate
It is going to be a wild one, with Detroit, Oklahoma City and Sacramento all missing key players or entire rotations. On top of that ,there is the wild card Clippers, who may or may not surprise with news that Kawhi Leonard or Paul George has a sore foot after all the other games have locked, like they have several times this season. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
