NBA DFS action on Tuesday, March 2, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 7:30 p.m. EST with a five-game slate. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas, Nerlens Noel and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Tuesday, March 2nd
Yahoo Play of the Day – Jonas Valanciunas: Memphis Grizzles at Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 36.19 | DraftKings: 37.49
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 31.8% | FanDuel 22.7% | DraftKings 13.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $26 | FanDuel $7,000 | DraftKings $7,200
Step 1: Are the Wizards on the schedule? Step 2: Which lucky team is facing them? Today’s winner of the Washington Sweepstakes is the Grizzlies. We last saw Memphis on Sunday when they humiliated the Rockets in Houston 133-84. Frankly the game was not even that close, with Memphis racing out to a 63-37 halftime lead. Jonas Valanciunas played a scant 12.6 minutes, and Desmond Banes was the only starter to see the court in the final frame.
On tap tonight is a matchup with the Washington frontcourt that is in the bottom third of the league with regards to most rebounding metrics. This looks like a walk in the park for Valanciunas, who will be squaring off against a combination of Robin Lopez, Moritz Wagner, Alex Len, Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans. Valanciunas is posting one of his best seasons, averaging 27.1 minutes, 15.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.2 combined blocks/steals. There is a strong possibility of him getting to 40 fantasy points tonight, which makes him a steal on Yahoo.
Ja Morant: Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 36.18 | DraftKings: 38.04
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 27.8% | FanDuel 28.2% | DraftKings 30.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $30 | FanDuel $7,100 | DraftKings $7,000
The Grizzlies are going to be a theme in this article today. While Washington has won seven of their last nine games and would have topped Boston on Sunday if not for a missed call, they are still playing at the league’s fastest pace. Things have just gone their way in this stretch, with only a +2.9 average point differential. Looking at the stats, it seems that in this timeframe their opponents have been below league average from the field, while the Wizards have been above.
In the Houston blowout, Ja Morant was only needed for 26.3 minutes. On the season he is averaging a steady 1.1 fantasy points per minute. Memphis is favored by 1, and this game projects for 236.0 total points. It should be a spirited, back-and-forth affair with fantasy goodness available for all of the key players. Tonight the Grizzlies are projected for 119.0 points. For perspective, on the season they are averaging 111.2 points per game.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 56.06 | DraftKings: 57.94
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 20.8% | FanDuel 35.1% | DraftKings 27.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $56 | FanDuel $11,300 | DraftKings $11,000
It certainly looks like Giannis Antetokounmpo will be popular tonight on our six-game slate, even with his apex salary. Jrue Holiday played sparingly in his return from the health-and-safety protocol after missing 10 games. He saw 18 minutes off the bench on Sunday against the Clippers, and my estimation is we will see him for 22 to 24 tonight.
Denver is short-handed and played their starters 34 to 38 minutes last night, including a heavy workload in the fourth quarter to secure a victory in Chicago. Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, JaMychal Green, Facundo Campazzo and R.J. Hampton are all out. This definitely weakens their team defense, which bodes well for Giannis.
The Bucks’ rotation is not as deep as it has been in prior seasons, and over his last 10 games, Antetokounmp0 is averaging 36.3 minutes. That is a big jump from his regular-season average of 31.5 minutes over the last two seasons. There will be enough discount dandies that we can comfortably roster Giannis tonight.
Nerlens Noel: New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 32.75 | DraftKings: 29.75
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 37.2% | FanDuel 41.8% | DraftKings 26.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $18 | FanDuel $5,500 | DraftKings $5,200
Taj Gibson (ankle) and Mitchell Robinson (hand) are out. Coach Tom Thibodeau does not seem inclined to turn to rookie Obi Toppin, so that means huge minutes for Nerlens Noel. In his last two games, Noel has played 39.6 and 41.2 minutes.
The Knicks have won seven of their last nine games, so we can expect to see Thibodeau leaning heavily on his starters once again. On FanDuel Noel has power forward eligibility, which gives him a boost since we do not have to use our only center slot to roster him.
Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards
Morant and Valanciunas are core plays tonight, but the rest of the Grizzlies’ viability is in question. Fortunately, this is the first game of the night, so we will have all of the necessary news needed to make our decisions before lock.
Grayson Allen (concussion) is out, so we will likely see Desmond Bane draw another start. In his four spot starts this season, the rookie has performed well, averaging 26 minutes, 12.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals. While that may not seem like a lot, it is just north of 0.8 fantasy points per minute, and he is at a rock-bottom salary level.
Justise Winslow is also a solid option, as we should see his minutes tick up a few more to the 23 to 24 range. He is still a bargain and is fine for all formats in tonight’s matchup.
Everything else hinges on the availability of Kyle Anderson, who is questionable with a non-COVID illness. If he is out, then that frees up around 28 minutes to be dispersed among De’Anthony Melton, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman and Tyus Jones. Rookie Killian Tillie saw his first career action, with 9 minutes on Sunday after missing the first part of the season with foot and hamstring issues. In summary, should Anderson play, the players in this paragraph become dart throws at best.
Lonnie Walker: San Antonio Spurs vs. Detroit Pistons
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 22.65 | DraftKings: 23.43
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 10.4% | FanDuel 22.4% | DraftKings 2.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $13 | FanDuel $4,200 | DraftKings $5,100
Lonnie Walker is picking up quite a bit of interest on FanDuel. While the matchup against the Pistons is a good one, there is a fair amount of risk with his inconsistent play and minutes. While he has started the last three games and averaged 32.9 minutes, over his first 21 starts he was receiving just 27.5 minutes. If any of Rudy Gay, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Quandary Weatherspoon or Derrick White return to the rotation, Walker is likely to be the first to see his minutes pinched.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see that Walker has a 21.4% chance of being in the optimal lineup tonight. There is an 18.8% chance he reaches his boom threshold 31.0 FanDuel points. On the flipside, there is a 29.7% chance he fails to reach his bust of 21 fantasy points. In simpler terms, there is a one-in-three chance he breaks our hearts, against a one-in-five chance he leads us to glory.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Justice Winslow: MEM at WAS – $11
- Trey Lyles: SAS vs. NYK – $10
- Davis Bertans: WAS vs. MEM – $11
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Kawhi Leonard: LAC at BOS – 1.25x multiplier
- Derrick Rose: NYK at SAS – 1.70x multiplier
- Nerlens Noel: NYK at SAS – 1.75x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Tuesday, Mar. 2 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight we have most of the late news other than the starting lineup for Phoenix. That likely comes down to Frank Kaminsky, Dario Saric or Jae Crowder. Fortunately, none of those guys really moves the needle on this slate. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
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