NBA DFS action on Monday, March 22, locks at 7:30 p.m. ET with an eight-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 8:00 p.m. ET with a seven-game slate. Before you lock in your lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Khris Middleton, Karl-Anthony Towns and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Monday, March 22nd
Yahoo Play of the Day – Khris Middleton: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 42.94 | DraftKings: 45.32
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 51.6% | FanDuel 57.7% | DraftKings 44.8% - DFS Salary: Yahoo $31 | FanDuel $7,000 | DraftKings $7,600
Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to miss just his second game of the season with a sore left knee. The absence of the two-time reigning NBA MVP is going to leave a major fantasy void. On the year Giannis is averaging 29 points, 11.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 2.5 combined blocks/steals.
Looking at NBA WOWY, we can see that Khris Middleton has a 21.6% usage rate and 1.01 Yahoo fantasy points per minute with Giannis. When he is rolling solo, those rates increase to 31.9% and 1.33, respectively. Despite their defensive reputation, the Pacers have allowed 112 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games, which is a middle-of-the-pack result. Take the free square and look to differentiate your rosters elsewhere tonight.
Editor’s Note: Giannis Antetokounmpo has officially been ruled out.
Karl-Anthony Towns: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 50.21 | DraftKings: 52.51
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 24% | FanDuel 23.6% | DraftKings 18.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $43 | FanDuel $9,700 | DraftKings $9,500
In a fun twist tonight, the player pool is devoid of eye-popping fantasy projections. Karl-Anthony Towns is currently the only player projected for more than 45 Yahoo fantasy points. This should really test our mettle with regards to roster construction since the preferred stars-and-scrubs method simply doesn’t have options.
Towns now has 18 games under his belt since returning from his bout with COVID-19. In these games, he is averaging 33.5 minutes and 16.4 field-goal attempts. This has culminated in 23.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.2 combined blocks/steals. The Thunder handed Houston its 20th straight loss yesterday, but Oklahoma City has been a meandering disaster. It has now resorted to resting multiple players even in island games and have still ended up with a .500 record in eight March matchups. Even if Al Horford plays tonight after seeing the court just once in the last four games, Towns should be in the mix for a double-double and for being the top fantasy scorer of the night.
Good Value
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
As mentioned above in the Middleton analysis, the Bucks are likely to be without Antetokounmpo tonight. While we do not know for sure who will be in the starting lineup between Bobby Portis, P.J. Tucker or Pat Connaughton, Portis should see a healthy increase in his minutes, even if he is coming off the bench.
While he is not much of a defender, Portis is a fine fantasy producer who is averaging 1.11 Yahoo fantasy points per minute this season. Do not be dissuaded by his game log and recent performance; in the last eight games, he has played more than 20 minutes only once. Tonight he should see 24 to 26 minutes with the potential for a couple more as upside. His depressed salary is making him a very attractive NBA DFS pick on Monday.
Jrue Holiday has played seven games since returning from his COVID-related absence. In his last three games, he has averaged 35.1 minutes and 15.3 field-goal attempts. This has resulted in 17.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2 combined blocks/steals. When Antetokounmpo is off the court, Holiday is averaging nearly 1.3 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. Follow the crowd tonight and roll with multiple Milwaukee players on most of your rosters.
Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs
Unfortunately, rookie LaMelo Ball will miss the rest of the season with a fracture in his right wrist. That should elevate Devonte’ Graham back into the starting lineup and give him 30-ish minutes. Terry Rozier will also see an increase in assist and field-goal opportunities. Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington are the other Hornets who are likely to fill the production void left by Ball. While their salaries vary across the main DFS sites, this quartet should be a big part of our NBA DFS player pool tonight.
Risky Value
Fred VanVleet: Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.29 | DraftKings: 38.12
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 9.4% | FanDuel 10.2% | DraftKings 15.0%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $35 | FanDuel $8,100 | DraftKings $7,600
Toronto is nearly a double-digit favorite tonight as it heads into Houston to take on the Rockets. After missing nearly three weeks in the health-and-safety protocol, Fred VanVleet has played 32, 41 and 41 minutes. This is a back-to-back for Toronto and its third game in four nights. It would seem prudent that some of its core will see shorter minutes tonight if they can get out to an early lead. The Awesemo projections have VanVleet slated for 34.5 minutes.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see that there is an 8.5% chance of VanVleet being in the DraftKings optimal lineup. That gives him a negative leverage score of 6.7%, meaning that he is more popular than his probable outcome. There is a just a 13.2% probability that he will exceed his boom score of 47.5 DraftKings points. Conversely, there is a 49.5% chance of him falling below his bust of 37.5 DraftKings points. There are plenty of other options available in this salary range tonight, so let other gamers assume the risk of a not-so-elite performance from VanVleet.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Pat Connaughton: MIL vs. IND – $10
- Ivica Zubac: LAC vs. ATL – $13
- Reggie Jackson: LAC vs. ATL – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Khris Middleton: MIL vs. IND – 1.40x multiplier
- Jrue Holiday: MIL vs. IND – 1.50x multiplier
- Jaylen Brown: BOS vs. MEM – 1.30x multiplier
Final Thoughts on Monday, March 22 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight there are seven teams in action that also played yesterday. That should keep the player news feeds hopping with updates as we get closer to tip-off. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
