NBA DFS action on Thursday, March 11, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with an 11-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 7:30 p.m. ET with a 10-game slate. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Kyle Lowry, Brandon Ingram and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Thursday, March 11th
Yahoo Play of the Day – Brandon Ingram: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 40.32 | DraftKings: 41.82
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 40.0% | FanDuel 28.3% | DraftKings 14.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $27 | FanDuel $7,700 | DraftKings $8,400
This is a phenomenal matchup and salary for Brandon Ingram. Over their last 10 games, the Timberwolves are playing at the fifth0-fastest pace in the league, with 102.4 possessions per 48 minutes. Their defense has been shaky at best, ceding 114.6 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans have been playing much faster over the last two months, and this game has a 237-point total.
Ingram contributes across the box score, which generally limits his poor fantasy performances. He has continued to build on last year’s breakout, averaging 34.9 minutes, 18.0 field-goal attempts and a career-high 6.2 3-point attempts per game. He is averaging 23.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals for nearly 40 fantasy points per game. Today’s Yahoo salary is an absolute steal, and we will want to make sure Ingram is a staple NBA DFS pick on most of our rosters.
Kyle Lowry
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 45.07 | DraftKings: 47.83
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 53.6% | FanDuel 28.1% | DraftKings 29.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $28 | FanDuel $8,500 | DraftKings $8,600
On Yahoo Kyle Lowry is a free square. While he is far from a steal on the other DFS sites, his salary is not fully considering that Toronto will be without starters Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and O.G. Anunoby, who are all in the health-and-safety protocol. Utilizing NBA WOWY, we can see that Lowry averages 1.0 fantasy points per minute when playing alongside Siakam and VanVleet. When they are both off the court, he sees a 15% increase in his fantasy production to 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Despite being short-handed, this is still a very winnable game for the Raptors, who are underdogs by only one bucket.
In the two games without Siakam and VanVleet, Lowry has averaged 37.6 minutes, 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 12.5 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals. Atlanta is allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games. Tonight 40 fantasy points seem all but assured, and Lowry has 50-fantasy-point upside.
Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 51.92 | DraftKings: 55.52
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 9.2% | FanDuel 20.5% | DraftKings 17.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $10,400 | DraftKings $10,800
There will be plenty of discount dandies available tonight, so let’s look at some of the top-shelf options. James Harden and Kyrie Irving are intriguing, but they will be going against a Boston team that is welcoming back Marcus Smart. Giannis Antetokounmpo is always among the projected fantasy leaders, though he is playing against the Knicks, who will be looking to slow the game down to a grind. Stephen Curry has a tough matchup against the Clippers, and Damian Lillard is going against Phoenix. That leaves Luka Doncic as the clear luxury play in my mind.
While he played nearly 39 minutes last night, I have no qualms about going back to Doncic in this matchup. The Mavericks are squarely in the “play-in” zone amid a jumble of eight teams separated by seven games from the sixth seed on down. Ideally Dallas will rise above this fray so they can assure themselves of a postseason berth. Things are spaced out after tonight, and their next three games have a day off between each tilt. That means Doncic should see his typical 37 to 38 minutes unless the game gets out of hand. He provides fantasy production in so many different avenues that it is hard for him to have bad games. He should be in the mix for 50 fantasy points tonight.
Good Value
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons will be out for the next two games while in the health-and-safety protocol. This means heavy usage for Tobias Harris and major minutes that will need to be filled by the 76ers understudies. Without Simmons and/or Embiid, Harris generally produces 1.2-1.3 fantasy points per minute. Chicago has been holding things together with a patchwork crew that is surprisingly effective on offense but allowing 115.2 points per game, which is the third most in the league.
Keep an eye on the starting lineup for Philadelphia, as the players elevated into the top five generally play more minutes while the reserve rotation remains otherwise intact. That will help us in choosing between Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley at center and Seth Curry, Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz on the wing as our NBA DFS picks.
Risky Value
Kelly Olynyk: Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 25.44 | DraftKings: 26.5
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 33.4% | FanDuel 19.9% | DraftKings 24.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $13 | FanDuel $4,500 | DraftKings $5,100
Bam Adebayo will be out for at least one more game while dealing with a knee issue. That means that Kelly Olynyk will likely be in line for an increased workload. However, there are no guarantees when it comes to the whims and rotations of coach Erik Spoelstra. Even as a starter, there have been plenty of games over the last two seasons where Olynyk has played limited or no fourth quarter minutes.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see that there is an 8.1% chance that Olynyk is in the optimal lineup tonight. There is just a 12.7% probability that he reaches his boom score of 35.5 DraftKings points. On the other hand, there is a 46.3% chance that he falls at or below his bust of 25.5 DraftKings points. With so many teams in action, it seems we would be best served letting other gamers assume the above-average risk of a subpar fantasy performance from Olynyk tonight.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Ivica Zubac: LAC vs. GSW – $10
- Immanuel Quickley: NYK at MIL – $10
- James Wiseman: GSW at LAC – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Nikola Vucevic: ORL at MIA – 1.25x multiplier
- Kyle Lowry: TOR vs. ATL – 1.35x multiplier
- Kristaps Porzingis: DAL at OKC – 1.35x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Thursday, Mar. 11 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight will be a wild one with 22 teams in action. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
