Monday, June 7, brings a pair of second- round matchups with Game 2 for the Bucks vs. Nets along with the series opener for the Nuggets vs. Suns. Let’s look at the four-team player pool and discuss the top NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups. Don’t forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS home page for more great written daily fantasy basketball content, including the FREE NBA Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Monday, June 7
Yahoo Play of the Day — Kyrie Irving: Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 48.33 | DraftKings: 49.4
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 55.4% | FanDuel 38.2% | DraftKings 46.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $39 | FanDuel $9,700 | DraftKings $9,200
Even with James Harden suffering a hamstring injury in the first minute of the game, Brooklyn was able to rally and dispatch Milwaukee. While Kyrie Irving is clearly the third member of the Nets’ big three, he is a seven-time All-Star. The Yahoo salary algorithm is giving us a gift by dropping Irving’s salary to the lowest postseason level yet. In the absence of Harden, Irving will return to the role as primary playmaker while also moving up to the second scoring option behind Kevin Durant. The masses are going to be strong on this play, and it makes sense to be along for the ride.
Deandre Ayton: Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.45 | DraftKings: 37.5
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 30.4% | FanDuel 22.8% | DraftKings 22%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $28 | FanDuel $7,600 | DraftKings $7,300
This is an intriguing matchup for Deandre Ayton, who has performed well in the past against Nikola Jokic. In the first four games of the Lakers series, Ayton averaged nearly 40 minutes per game. On the positive side of things, he was needed for just 27 and 32 minutes in the final two games. This gave him a bit of a respite and two crummy game logs along to keep his salary at an affordable level. For him to pay off his backers, he does need double-digit field-goal attempts and rebounds, as that is going to be the recipe to get him in the 40-fantasy-point range. In three January meetings with Jokic this year, Ayton averaged 37.5 minutes, 22 points and 12.3 rebounds. In tournaments, all he needs is to be within 15 points of Jokic, which will also allow for the salary cap resources to make a couple other significant upgrades to rosters. Today the field is going to be locked into the first game of the night and likely Jokic from Denver. Going to Ayton provides some much-needed differentiation that still has upside potential.
Good Value
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
It does not take a genius to figure out that the value plays for Monday will be coming courtesy of the Nets. Harden is leaving behind a massive void that will take several players to fill. Durant and Irving will pick up a lot of the high-leverage touches, but they were already seeing their own heavy usage without Harden; they can be projected for 40 minutes tonight. The minutes trickledown effect is massive, as Harden had averaged around 38 minutes per outing with the exception of the Game 2 drubbing of Boston where he was needed for just 27 minutes.
Bruce Brown Jr. looks to be the primary beneficiary, as he was the first player off the bench and also started the second half. Mike James appeared in three first-round games for a grand total of 10 minutes. On Saturday, he played 30.2 minutes compared to the 21.3 for Brown, getting most of the minutes in the rotation when Brown was off the court and nine with him. Tyler Johnson is a bit of a wild card, as he can back up both Irving and be a secondary facilitator. While he played between eight and 16 minutes in the first round, some of that was also in mop-up duty. It was a bit of a surprise that he only played the final minute on Saturday.
Probably the biggest surprise in all of this was Blake Griffin posting 18 points, 14 rebounds, three assists and two steals in 35 minutes. For comparison, in the five games against Boston, Griffin played 101.9 minutes with totals of 24 points, 17 rebounds, nine assists, three steals and a block. While that was likely his highwater mark, he has attainable upside at today’s DFS salary.
Risky Value
Austin Rivers: Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 19.21 | DraftKings: 19.83
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 25.2% | FanDuel 31.2% | DraftKings 26.6%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $12 | FanDuel $4,900 | DraftKings $4,000
Keep in mind that Denver is facing a tremendous defense in Phoenix tonight, and this is going to be a vastly different opponent than Portland. In order to reach his upside, Austin Rivers is going to not only need to see double-digit field-goal attempts, but he is going to need to continue his torrid shooting from behind the arc.
Awesemo’s Boom/Bust tool shows that Rivers is picking up a lot of traction on FanDuel. This makes a lot of sense because of FanDuel’s position requirements, and the choices tonight are locking in Devin Booker and then closing eyes and selecting one of Rivers, Bryn Forbes, Pat Connaughton, Torrey Craig or Landry Shamet. Yes, gluttons for punishment who are still playing head-to-head contests in the postseason can roll with Rivers. However, there is a fair amount of risk in tournaments — where the salary savings with the other options could provide a helpful upgrade elsewhere. There is currently a 37.7% chance of Rivers being in the FanDuel optimal lineup, but this is also a function of math; Forbes and Connaughton also in the 30 t0 35% range, and even Craig is at 21%.
Digging a little deeper, there is only a 2.7% probability of Rivers exceeding his boom score of 34.5 FanDuel points. Conversely, there is a 66.5% likelihood of him falling below his bust threshold of 24.5 FanDuel points. The probabilities are equally bleak for the other options, but that does not take into account reallocating the $900 to $1,300 savings that decision provides.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- JaMychal Green: DEN at PHX – $10
- Cameron Johnson: PHX vs. DEN – $10
- Pat Connaughton: MIL at BKN: – $10
Final Thoughts on the Monday, June 7 NBA DFS Slate
The injury to James Harden is going to create a fantasy production void that brings several of the Nets ancillary rotation pieces to the forefront player pools tonight. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
