NBA DFS action on Sunday, Feb. 14, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a nifty nine-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Luka Doncic, Jonas Valanciunas, Damian Lillard and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Sunday February 14th
Yahoo Play of the Day – Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 55.12 | DraftKings: 59.27
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 32.2% | FanDuel 24% | DraftKings 24.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $54 | FanDuel $11,300 | DraftKings $11,100
Value plays abound on Sunday, so we should have no issues rolling with Luka Doncic, even with his lofty salary. On Friday Doncic put up a career-high 46 points against the Pelicans. After a six-game losing streak, Dallas has now won five of their last six games. In these half-dozen tilts, Doncic is averaging 37 minutes, 22.2 field-goal attempts, 32.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 9.7 assists and 1.8 combined blocks/steals. In three of these games, he has surpassed 60 Yahoo fantasy points.
The matchup against Portland is a favorable one given their fast pace and lackadaisical defense. This game has a projected point total of 236.0, which is the highest of the day.
Damian Lillard: Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 47.7 | DraftKings: 50.92
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 11% | FanDuel 23.8% | DraftKings 17.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $47 | FanDuel $9,500 | DraftKings $9,600
Damian Lillard and Enes Kanter have been carrying an injury-decimated squad and are both playing some of the best basketball of their careers. While they are not playing much defense, their offensive games have been phenomenal, and Portland has won six of their last eight games. Through seven games in February, Lillard is averaging 37.2 minutes, 21.7 field-goal attempts, 31.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 9.4 assists and 2.0 combined blocks/steals. This works out to 55.6 Yahoo and 59.2 DraftKings fantasy points.
Over their last 10 games, the Mavericks are playing at a top-10 pace and have the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. In this stretch they are allowing 121.5 points per 100 possessions.
Jonas Valanciunas: Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.05 | DraftKings: 37.99
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 18.2% | FanDuel 12.9% | DraftKings 12.8%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $29 | FanDuel $7,100 | DraftKings $7,400
This is a tremendous matchup for the Grizzlies and in particular for Jonas Valanciunas. Sacramento has terrible post defense, and do we really think the combination of Marvin Bagley (calf), Richaun Holmes, Hassan Whiteside and Nemanja Bjelica stand a chance of even slowing down Valanciunas?
Since returning to the starting lineup after his bout with COVID-19, Valanciunas has averaged 31.5 minutes in three games. In this timeframe he has posted 20.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 combined blocks/steals. An output of 40 fantasy points is imminent.
Good Value
Tyus Jones: Memphis Grizzlies at Sacrament Kings
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 21.62 | DraftKings: 21.4
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 8.4% | FanDuel 1.4% | DraftKings 5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $10 | FanDuel $4,600 | DraftKings $4,500
Tyus Jones seems to be going under the radar, though I expect his popularity to increase towards double digits throughout the day. Memphis is without De’Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane, which is opening up extra backcourt minutes for Jones, who is having his best fantasy season of his career.
Even coming off the bench, he should be in line for 23 to 24 minutes with the potential upside for a few more. Currently he is averaging just shy of 1 fantasy point per minute. The Kings have the worst defensive efficiency in the league this year, allowing 115.0 points per 100 possessions.
Hamidou Diallo: Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 40.09 | DraftKings: 40.64
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 26.6% | FanDuel 28% | DraftKings 21.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $29 | FanDuel $6,800 | DraftKings $7,100
While he is no longer the steal of the century like he had been before his salary caught up, Hamidou Diallo should be a focal point of our lineups Sunday. Milwaukee is not the defensive juggernaut that we have been accustomed to seeing for the last few seasons. They are in the middle of the pack, allowing 112.6 points per game. However, their amazing offensive efficiency that has them leading the league, with 121.2 points per game and the second-best differential at +8.6 points, behind only the Jazz.
In his last five games, Diallo is averaging 36.6 minutes with 16.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.0 combined blocks/steals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Theo Maledon will be out again tonight, so that leaves Diallo and Al Horford as the non-traditional offensive facilitators for the Thunder.
Risky Value
Michael Porter Jr.: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 32.66 | DraftKings: 32.96
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 29.6% | FanDuel 32.7% | DraftKings 30.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $22 | FanDuel $5,800 | DraftKings $5,900
Denver has been running a relatively tight rotation since Gary Harris was lost to injury. Tonight they will be without Will Barton as well. This should have Porter starting and seeing minutes in the mid-30s. The salary is very appealing, but this is not an easy matchup against the Lakers. On the season and over their last 10 games, Los Angeles has the best defensive efficiency rating in the league.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see that Porter is expected to be in the optimal lineup 20.2% of the time on FanDuel. However, his current level of popularity is exceeding that rate by 12.5%, which gives him a negative leverage score. This means he is likely to fail more often than he is in the optimal lineup. Looking at his boom score of 5x his salary + 10 (39 FanDuel points, )we can see that he has a 35.5% probability of attaining that production. His bust score of 5x his salary (29 FanDuel points) has a failure rate of 23.9%. Both of these are very reasonable and why he is projecting to be popular. Just keep in mind that he has surpassed 40 fantasy points four times in his 15 games this season, and he will be battling with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Tyus Jones: MEM at SAC – $10
- Grayson Allen: MEM at SAC – $11
- Frank Kaminsky: PHX at ORL – $11
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Damian Lillard: POR at DAL – 1.20x multiplier
- Enes Kanter: POR at DAL – 1.50x multiplier
- Al Horford: OKC vs. MIL – 1.55x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Sunday, Feb. 14 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight should be a great night for tournaments. Denver, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Orlando and Memphis are all missing key players. This is allowing others to see expanded roles for which the salary algorithms have not addressed. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
