Tuesday, July 6, brings Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Let’s look at the Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns player pool and discuss the top NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups. Do not forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS home page for more great written daily fantasy basketball content, including the FREE NBA Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Tuesday, July 6
Yahoo Play of the Day — Chris Paul: Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 41.29 | DraftKings: 42.62
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 70.5% | FanDuel 48.1% | DraftKings 58.2%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $34 | FanDuel $15,000 | DraftKings $9,800
There are going to be lots of storylines in this year’s NBA Finals. Phoenix is making its first appearance since 1993 when it lost to the Bulls. The Suns have never won a title, while Milwaukee won all the way back in 1971. However, the Bucks’ last appearance in the NBA Finals was in 1973. For Chris Paul, this is the first NBA Finals of his 16-year career.
While this is Paul’s debut in the championship, he is no stranger to the postseason, and Tuesday will mark his 124th playoff game. He will have the ball in his hands on nearly every possession, and he knows when to call his own number and when to set up his teammates in the perfect spot. This gives him a solid baseline projection, and there is upside like the 41-point closeout game against the Clippers. Phoenix last played on Wednesday, so it has had ample rest.
Devin Booker: Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 41.58 | DraftKings: 44.07
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 65.5% | FanDuel 46.5% | DraftKings 67.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $34 | FanDuel $13,500 | DraftKings $9,600
Some NBA DFS players are going to give Devin Booker a boost because Milwaukee tends to encourage their opponents to take 3-point shots from the wing. While that is true, it needs to be noted that Booker is relatively average when it comes to his volume from beyond the arc. During the regular season he averaged 5.5 3-point attempts, which was right in line with his career average, and over the last three seasons he has been consistently around a 34% success rate. In the playoffs he averaged six attempts with a 34.4% success rate. Booker will take the shots that are available, but he also likes to attack the basket, make dribble-drive decisions and get to the free-throw line. In each of the regular-season meetings he took four shots from downtown. Booker is a great play, but it is also important to understand his offensive game.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 50.72 | DraftKings: 52.67
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 70.5% | FanDuel 68.4% | DraftKings 60.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $54 | FanDuel $16,000 | DraftKings $11,200
The Bucks are being cagey with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s availability, and while he received the doubtful tag, he is still being considered a game-time decision. However, even if he does play, his effectiveness and assertiveness will not be known until he is on the court. He suffered his hyperextended knee one week ago, so at least he has had some time for recovery and treatment.
Phoenix was victorious in the two regular-season matchups, winning 128-127 in overtime in Milwaukee and 125-124 at home. Tonight the Suns are between 5- and 6-point favorites depending on the source. It is hard to draw a lot from the regular-season games because Jae Crowder was coming off the bench at that time, and Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky each started one game alongside Deandre Ayton. Also, Torrey Craig played one game for each team, and P.J. Tucker joined the Bucks for the second game of the series.
If Antetokounmpo is in the starting lineup, it makes sense that we can project him for 70 or 80% of his regular baseline. Game 2 is on Thursday and Game 3 is on Sunday, so with things relatively spread out, the Bucks could choose to play it safe and give Giannis another 48 hours to recover. Or, with time between the games, they may let him give it a go and play it by ear. If he is out, then gamers should turn to Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, who would slot right in behind Paul and Booker, with Lopez getting the nod over Ayton on Yahoo but falling behind him on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
Milwaukee Bucks
- P.J. Tucker, $11: This is a fluid recommendation based on the availability of Giannis. If he starts, then Tucker is the preferred option over Portis. If Giannis sits or is on some sort of minutes restriction, then Portis is the play.
- Bobby Portis, $15: With Giannis’ potential to play, Portis has seen a decrease from his lofty $17 salary as the starter in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He is in play for tournaments with his ability to rack up the fantasy goodness, but he will likely be closer to 20 or 22 minutes than 30 if Giannis is able to play.
- Pat Connaughton, $10: This is a decent matchup for Connaughton, as the Suns generally play big with their frontcourt. One game this series Connaughton will flirt with 30 fantasy points, though who knows when it will occur. Hope for something in the low 20s, but be ready for production in the low teens. Fortunately, he is at the minimum salary on Yahoo for this very reason.
Phoenix Suns
- Cameron Johnson, $10: Johnson should benefit more from the Bucks pushing for 3-point shots from the wing. In the two regular-season meetings, he took six and seven attempts from behind the arc in just 19 or 20 minutes.
- Dario Saric, $10: Saric is essentially relegated to only the minutes that Ayton is off the court. However, it should be noted that Ayton had five and three fouls in the two regular-season matchups, and defending the basket against Giannis going downhill has some risk. Of course, that would be with a healthy Giannis, but it is still worth a lineup or two planning for that contingency. Saric is a tournament dart throw and best used on lineups without Ayton.
- Torrey Craig, $10: Craig was acquired for cash considerations in mid-March. Technically, Craig is going to get a championship ring regardless of who wins since he made 18 appearances for the Bucks this season. Craig has played in all 16 postseason games, but his minutes are wildly variable depending on the game flow. He is a tournament dart throw, but there is only a 20% probability that he will produce double-digit fantasy points.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS picks for the Tuesday, July 6 Slate
There are some massive prize pools tonight, but these tournaments are teeming with entries. Keep in mind that the smaller-field contests can be lucrative and have far fewer lineup duplications.
