NBA DFS action on Sunday, March 21, locks at 7:00 p.m. ET with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Tobias Harris, C.J. McCollum, Bradley Beal and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Sunday, March 21st
Yahoo Play of the Day – C.J. McCollum: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 32.85 | DraftKings: 35.08
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 24.2% | FanDuel 5.1% | DraftKings 9.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $26 | FanDuel $8,000 | DraftKings $7,300
In his first three games since returning after a two-month layoff, C.J. McCollum has looked better each game. In these outings he played 26, 21 and most recently 28 minutes, which was encouraging since it was on a back-to-back.
Coach Terry Stotts has been staggering McCollum and Damian Lillard, with the former getting 5 to 6 minutes to start the second quarter and 3 to 4 to start the final frame as the focal point of the offense. This has enabled McCollum to have a usage rate over 30% and get up plenty of shots. The Mavericks have been a bottom-five defense for most of the season, which makes this an enticing matchup.
Tobias Harris: Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 38.65 | DraftKings: 39.47
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 10.4% | FanDuel 20.7% | DraftKings 8.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $38 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $8,600
Last night Ben Simmons was a surprising late-scratch with knee soreness. With Joel Embiid already out, that gave Tobias Harris the keys to the kingdom. Though he only played 30 minutes in an easy victory over the Kings, he certainly did not disappoint. Harris just missed out on a triple-double, with 29 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists on his way to a 60-fantasy-point night.
While Sacramento is allowing a league-worst 118.5 points per 100 possessions, tonight’s opponent is one of the better defenses in the league, as the Knicks allow 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Coach Tom Thibodeau has been running a tight ship in New York, and he has his squad playing at a deliberate pace of 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes (slowest in the league). Philadelphia is projected to score 108.0 points, which is 7 below their season average.
Now that we have calibrated expectations for the matchup, let’s dig into Harris specifically. Regardless of Simmons’ status, Harris should be one of our core plays in all formats on Sunday. In the seven games he has played without Embiid, Harris has posted three of his four best fantasy outings. In addition to last night’s 60-fantasy-point masterpiece, he also has 50- and 70-fantasy-point performances. Anything less than 40 fantasy points tonight is going to be a disappointment.
Bradley Beal: Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 46 | DraftKings: 47.79
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 13.8% | FanDuel 26.1% | DraftKings 18.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $9,600 | DraftKings $9,300
Bradley Beal is leading the league with 32.5 points per game and is fresh off his fifth 40-point game of the season. Washington last played on Thursday, so they should be fresh heading into this cherry matchup with a projected point total nearing 250 points. Beal and Russell Westbrook have definitely found a way to coexist on the court, which essentially means that they dominate every possession, leaving the other Wizards out in the cold.
Among players with at least 1,100 minutes played, Beal is second in the league with a 34.1% usage rate, behind only Luka Doncic’s 35.0%. Westbrook is 10th with a 30.6% rate, and he is just half an assist shy of averaging a triple-double. This backcourt duo is very much in play, but Beal gets the nod for his 10 to 12% salary discount across the DFS sites.
It should be noted that Washington won the first two games of this series in eye-popping fashion. On Jan. 3 they took the matchup in Brooklyn 123-122. Then on Jan. 31 they won in Washington 149-146. Look at those final scores and know that neither tilt went to overtime.
Good Value
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
With both LeBron James and Anthony Davis sidelined, there will be ample opportunity for the Los Angeles understudies to step up. While this is a daunting matchup against an excellent Phoenix defense, and the Lakers are projected to score just over 100 points, the salary algorithms have not had the opportunity to adjust for the absence of LeBron, who suffered a high ankle sprain yesterday afternoon. On the season the Suns have the third-best defensive efficiency rating, allowing just 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, Talen-Horton Tucker, Markieff Morris and Alex Caruso are going to be the key players we should focus on for the main slate. On the late slate we can include Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and if you are feeling daring, even Wesley Matthews. Schroder, Harrell and Kuzma should all see additional field-goal attempts, which will boost their production.
Caruso and Horton-Tucker are really the only competent facilitators besides Schroder, so that will increase their playing time. While this matchup does not have me rushing to roster multiple Lakers, I will be surprised if most of my rosters do not include at least one.
Risky Value
Josh Richardson: Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 24.17 | DraftKings: 24.94
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 10% | FanDuel 15.1% | DraftKings 19.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $18 | FanDuel $5,200 | DraftKings $5,100
The Awesemo Boom/Bust tool is one of the best premium features available in the industry. It provides an analytical perspective for success or failure entirely based on math. This by-the-numbers approach is valuable in taking bias out of the process while allowing us to compare players across positions and with varying salaries.
Tonight Josh Richardson is in an excellent matchup with a fast-paced Portland squad that is violently allergic to playing defense. Richardson has a 14.6% probability of being in the DraftKings optimal lineup as of writing. The first thing we can look at it his leverage score. This is calculated by looking at the differential between his projected popularity of 19.7% and his likelihood of being in the optimal lineup, giving us -5.1%. What this indicates is that he is going to be on more rosters than he should be based on the projections.
Next we can see that he has just a 7.5% chance of exceeding his boom score 35.5 DraftKings points. This indicates he does not have frequent access to an upside that gamers may be expecting for this matchup. Looking at his bust score of 25.5 DraftKings fantasy points, we can see that he has a 53.1% chance of falling below that threshold. That number really jumps out, but it makes sense.
Despite averaging 32.1 minutes per game, Richardson is a low-usage player. This should not be a surprise since his teammate, Luka Doncic, leads the league in that category at 35%. Kristaps Porzingis is at 26.8%, and Tim Hardaway Jr. 22.5%, which does not leave much for anyone else.
Usage rate is a complex formula, but in simple terms it measures the percentage of possessions that end with a particular player. This could be via a field-goal or free-throw attempt or even a turnover. If all five players on the floor had an equal share, it would be a 20% usage rate. In his 31 games this season, Richardson has surpassed a 20% usage rate only eight times. Tonight we should let other gamers assume the risk of a subpar performance in tournaments.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Shake Milton: PHI at NYK – $11
- Talen Horton-Tucker – $11
- Bruce Brown Jr: BKN vs. WAS – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Kyrie Irving: BKN vs. WAS – 1.25x multiplier
- Julius Randle: NYK vs. PHI – 1.20x multiplier
- Jerami Grant: DET vs. CHI – 1.45x multiplier
Final Thoughts on Sunday, Mar. 21 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight should be a fun one with lots of superstars and plenty of value options. Plus, on Sundays there always seems to be unexpected news after the slate locks. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
