Welcome to a new NBA season! This is our primary in-depth NBA article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make great NBA DFS picks in any format on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 12/28
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers (+1): 218.5
Boston Celtics
There’s not much that stands out here on a huge 10-game slate. The Celtics have plenty of talented players that are viable in tournaments — namely Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart –– but that also makes them difficult to use in cash games unless there is a clear mispricing. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this team and any of the main trio are capable of being the guy any given night.
Tatum leads the team with 34.9 minutes per game and a 32.2 percent usage rate so far this season and he is always going to be the highest upside option if you can afford him. He’s followed by Brown who has played 33.9 minutes per game with a 29.5 percent usage rate. Smart only has a 13 percent usage rate while averaging 34 minutes per game so far, but he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games without Walker over the last two seasons and he contributes in a variety of ways, so I’m not too concerned about the usage.
The frontcourt is messy and tough to trust as we have Tristan Thompson starting alongside Daniel Theis. Thompson has been on a minutes limit and is averaging 22 minutes per game so it’s tough to go to him in any format until we get word that he’s going to get more playing time. Theis, meanwhile, has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season but he’s only averaged 21 minutes per game this season as Robert Williams is also in the center rotation. He’s also only averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season as he is losing rebounds to Thompson and being asked to shoot from outside more so he’s less efficient on his limited field goal attempts. We can gamble on these guys on shorter slates, but I don’t really see getting here tonight.
Jeff Teague is the last semi-interesting piece from Boston as he has the sixth-man role off the bench and is relatively inexpensive. The problem is that he’s only averaging about 23 minutes per game and, because Brad Stevens staggers his starters’ minutes, he’s playing a large percentage of his minutes alongside Tatum, so he isn’t even the alpha with the second unit.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Marcus Smart ($5,900)
Indiana Pacers
Victor Oladipo was a late scratch on Sunday, but he isn’t on the injury report today. Assuming he is back, that would move Aaron Holiday back to the bench.
Domantas Sabonis stands out as the top play from Indiana as he is an excellent fantasy producer and he’s playing huge minutes this season. He played 40.6 minutes against Boston on Sunday and has averaged 37.1 minutes per game through the Pacers’ first three games. It’s a tough matchup against the Celtics, but Sabonis has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. It also helps his value that the Pacers continue to use him as the back-up center. We should expect about 50 to 55 percent of Sabonis’s minutes to come without Myles Turner on the floor. Since last season, Sabonis has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute without another center on the floor compared to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute alongside Turner.
Nobody else stands out from the Pacers, though we can certainly look to Malcolm Brogdon or T.J. Warren as secondary options. Brogdon has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute since joining the Pacers last season and has averaged 33.4 minutes per game this season. Warren played 37.5 minutes on Sunday, so it appears that he’s back to full strength after being limited to 23 minutes and 27 minutes in Indiana’s first two games. He’s extremely affordable at only $5,100 on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,900), T.J. Warren ($5,100)
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5): 215
New York Knicks
The Knicks are dealing with a bunch of injuries as Immanuel Quickley, Austin Rivers, Dennis Smith, Omari Spellman and Obi Toppin are all out for tonight’s game. Alec Burks is also doubtful.
While you may not look at those names and think any of them are particularly important, the Knicks are clearly short-handed for this game — particularly in the backcourt. Elfrid Payton is a typically a volatile fantasy player, in terms of performance and playing time. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute since last season, but he’s a poor shooter who is capable of producing some truly awful fantasy games. He also has triple-double upside, however. Because he’s a streaky real-life player, it’s usually difficult to trust that he won’t be benched mid-game. His playing time should be more secure than normal tonight, however, as New York’s back-up point guards are Quickley, Smith and Burks. Frank Ntilikina is next in line, but Tom Thibodeau has clearly been in no hurry to play him more than he has to. Payton played 29.3 minutes against the Bucks on Sunday and I think there is a good chance we get around 30 minutes again tonight, if not more. It never feels good to rely on him, but he’s a strong value tonight as he’s not priced for most of the Knicks’ backcourt to be sidelined.
Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett are playing huge minutes, averaging 35.7 and 36.6 minutes per game through the first three games of the season. Randle has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season while Barrett has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. We could see Barrett’s per-minute production increase this season as well since he’s only in his second year in the league.
Mitchell Robinson is always risky because he has one of the highest foul rates in the league, but we’ve seen that the Knicks want him to play more than 30 minutes in games where he isn’t in foul trouble. Robinson logged 34.7 minutes against Milwaukee on Sunday and he’s a strong per-minute producer with 1.05 DraftKings points per minute since last season. His salary factors in the risk of losing minutes to foul trouble, so he looks like a strong value with a ton of upside. If you’re looking to leverage against Robinson in large field tournaments, Nerlens Noel is his back-up and should see a bump in playing time whenever Robinson is in foul trouble.
Kevin Knox and Reggie Bullock should see increased playing time with so many players sidelined, but it’s tough to trust either of them as anything more than secondary value options because they both produce fewer than 0.75 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Elfrid Payton ($5,500), Mitchell Robinson ($5,600), Julius Randle ($8,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Elfrid Payton ($4,800), Mitchell Robinson ($4,900), Julius Randle ($7,700), R.J. Barrett ($6,200)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is also short-handed for tonight’s game as they will be without all of Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Porter Jr., Dylan Windler and Matthew Dellavedova. The big pieces here are Love, Okoro and Porter as that takes two starters and a main bench player out of tonight’s rotation. We saw Larry Nance Jr. start in place of Love earlier this season and in place of Okoro last game, so it seems like a lock that he will be in the starting lineup. The other starter should be either Cedi Osman or Dante Exum. Exum started the second half on Sunday after Love left the game.
Andre Drummond should benefit from Love’s absence as it should increase his rebounding numbers. Drummond has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute since joining Cleveland last year, and most of that time came without Love on the floor. It’s kind of difficult to gauge Drummond’s minutes so far this season because we have a game where he was in early foul trouble, a game that went to double overtime and then a game where his rotations were clearly shorter than normal- probably because it was a back-to-back after going to double overtime. My read on the situation is that he played 34 minutes in regulation in the only game that didn’t have extenuating circumstances so far (and 44 minutes total with double overtime) so I think we should expect 33-34 minutes in normal games for Drummond.
Nance has started two games so far this season and played 33.6 minutes against Charlotte and then 35.4 minutes against the Sixers. Nance’s per-minute production takes a hit when he isn’t playing center, which he won’t be with Drummond and JaVale McGee both active. Still, he’s inexpensive enough that he has value just based on how many minutes he should play, and he does still have upside because he is capable of contributing in every category.
As I mentioned before, I expect either Exum or Osman to fill the final spot in the starting lineup tonight. Exum played about 13 minutes after starting the second half against the Sixers and would be a strong value at near minimum salary if he starts tonight and we expect him to get 26-28 minutes. Exum has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 438 minutes with Cleveland since last season, so he isn’t the most exciting option, but he would project well for his salary. He’ll be more useful on DraftKings than FanDuel because the opportunity cost of punting the point guard position on FanDuel is high and pricing on FanDuel is softer so it’s easier to make a good lineup without using someone like Exum. Osman played about 10 minutes in the second half against the Sixers. If he comes off the bench tonight, I would expect 20-24 minutes from him. At his price point, I think he needs to crack the starting lineup to be on my radar.
Finally, we have Collin Sexton and Darius Garland who have both shown immense upside already this season. Sexton should benefit from Love’s absence as he has a 29.5 percent usage rate in 98 minutes alongside Drummond without Love on the floor. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over that span and he should play 34-35 minutes tonight assuming no foul trouble or blowout. Garland has a 22.8 percent usage rate in 99 minutes alongside Drummond without Love and has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. I expect him to play into the mid-thirties in minutes as well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,700), Larry Nance Jr. ($6,300), Collin Sexton ($6,900), Dante Exum- if starting ($3,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,400), Larry Nance Jr. ($5,500), Collin Sexton ($6,800)
Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards (-6): 237
Chicago Bulls
Thaddeus Young is probable so he should be back for tonight’s game against Washington, while Lauri Markkanen is questionable. For now, I’m going to assume that Markkanen plays.
The Bulls are mostly healthy, which makes it difficult for anyone to stand out as a top play on a huge slate full of injuries. On the other hand, they’re playing the Wizards, which is one of the most favorable matchups in the league. Zach LaVine should have plenty of success here as the Wizards will push the pace and they also struggle to defend in transition. LaVine played 34.8 minutes against Golden State on Sunday and I expect 34-35 minutes from him in most competitive games. LaVine has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and he looks like a strong mid-range option tonight.
Markkanen, Coby White and Wendell Carter all come with plenty of upside for their price points, though they won’t have the best median projections compared to other players on the slate. Carter is a bit of an exception on FanDuel as he is only $5,100 after having a huge game in 31.5 minutes against Golden State on Sunday. Still, Mitchell Robinson is even cheaper, and center is a deep position so there are plenty of alternatives that also look good.
Don’t sleep on Tomas Satoransky as a GPP value play that may go overlooked. He had virtually no ownership against Golden State on Sunday and he’s only $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. We should see 22-24 minutes from Satoransky, with the upside for more if he plays well or any of the starters get in foul trouble. Satoransky has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute since last season and contributes in all categories so he should benefit from the added possessions a matchup with Washington will offer. If we expect Satoransky to play about 22 minutes and Exum to play about 27 minutes, they will project similarly at the same price point, but Exum will get a lot more ownership because he’s starting (hypothetically).
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($7,500), Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,100)
Washington Wizards
Russell Westbrook rested on Sunday on the second half of a back-to-back, but he should be in the lineup tonight against the Bulls. He’s been excellent through his first two games with the Wizards, posting a 30.4 percent usage rate, 17.6 percent rebounding rate and 49.1 percent assist rate while averaging 1.49 DraftKings points per minute. Westbrook has also averaged 36.1 minutes per game in the two games that he’s played. This Washington team is a perfect fit for him as they have shooters to space the floor, a stretch five who won’t clog the lane and bigs who aren’t particularly good rebounders.
I expect triple-doubles to be the norm for Westbrook this year. He is second to Nikola Jokic so far this season with 19.5 potential assists per game and he’s ninth in the NBA with 18.5 rebound chances per game. Obviously we are only talking about two games for Westbrook and three games for most other players, but it highlights the ridiculous number of opportunities that Westbrook has to rack up stats in Washington.
Other than Westbrook, I don’t see much to prioritize from Washington since they’re mostly healthy and prices have adjusted to early roles. Bradley Beal is always a strong tournament option if he is going to be relatively low-owned as he should lead the Wizards in usage rate this season and I think he’ll be more efficient alongside Westbrook than he was last season. Beal has a 36.9 percent usage rate in his 49 regular season minutes alongside Westbrook this season and the fact that the rest of the Wizards’ starters are relatively low-usage players means that Beal should still have one of the highest usage rates in the league despite the addition of Westbrook.
Thomas Bryant is a decent GPP option as well, especially on FanDuel at only $5,200. Even though that’s too cheap a salary for 30 minutes of Bryant, it isn’t the most favorable center price on the slate so he should be relatively low-owned.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($10,600), Thomas Bryant ($5,200)
Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons (+4.5): 226
Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green is still out for tonight’s game, as is Marquese Chriss and Alen Smailagic. This means that we can continue to play the fun game of guessing Steve Kerr’s rotation of non-NBA caliber players.
I’m not going to spend time getting into the non-core pieces of the Warriors here. Even with Chriss out against Chicago on Sunday, Golden State played 11 guys more than 10 minutes while only playing three people more than 23 minutes. If you want to guess which of the secondary pieces here randomly plays 28 minutes and has a big game feel free, but I won’t be.
The four players worth mentioning are Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman.
Curry is the obvious starting point and the only piece to actually feel good about. He said before the season that he wanted to average 34 minutes per game this year and I expect him to have the best fantasy season of his career because his team is no longer good enough to blow out everyone they face, and he will be an even bigger, more consistent part of the offense than normal. Curry has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.5 percent usage rate in 1,013 minutes played without either of Kevin Durant or DeMarcus Cousins on the floor since the start of the 2018-19 season.
Wiggins seems to have the playing time edge over Oubre early in the season, which makes me prefer him even though I expect both players to be a coin flip for most of the season as far as who has the better game any given night. Oubre has been shooting terribly to start the season, but I assume we see him start to pick up a few more minutes once he starts making shots. Neither player stands out as a priority like Curry does, but either one can be used as a mid-range piece in GPP lineups.
James Wiseman has mostly been impressive through his first three NBA games, both in real-life and from an NBA DFS perspective. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute through his first 71 minutes played. The problem with Wiseman is two-fold. First, his salary is up to $5,900 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel. We can’t trust him to play more than 24 or 25 minutes, so it’s tough to justify those salaries. Second, he is a center, so the opportunity cost is extremely high in addition to the actual salary being a little bit too high.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Steph Curry ($9,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Steph Curry ($9,400)
Detroit Pistons
We don’t have an injury report yet for the Pistons, but my assumption is that Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin will be back in the lineup after resting last night on the front end of the back-to-back. Jahlil Okafor missed last night’s game and I’m considering him questionable for tonight.
The return of Rose and Griffin dampens the prospects of most Detroit plays. Rose’s return takes playing time away from Killian Hayes, Delon Wright and Saddiq Bey, while Griffin’s return will send Josh Jackson back to the bench and he will reprise his role as a volatile value option that has a relatively high ceiling and extremely low floor. Rose and Griffin are also the highest-usage players on the team, so Jerami Grant will lose scoring opportunities at a time when his salary is increasing.
The only player that I think still looks good from the group that we rostered last night is Mason Plumlee. He’s being treated as a true starting center, typically playing 30-32 minutes a night. If Okafor is out, his playing time becomes even more solidified and we could see another 32-34 minutes like we did last night. It’s still tough to call him a priority at a deep center position, but he looks like a solid value.
Griffin also looks like a reasonable option at his price point. He’s not the same player he was earlier in his career, but he’s still averaged about 1 DraftKings point per minute since the start of last season and he has a favorable matchup against a Draymond Green-less Golden State frontcourt. Griffin has played 34-35 minutes in regulation in each of his first two games this season and, while I don’t expect him to knock down eight three-pointers like he did in his last game, he should have success tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin ($6,900), Mason Plumlee ($5,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin ($6,900)
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5): 219
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are fully healthy for their game tonight against the Sixers. As usual, this means that nobody stands out as a priority for me- though I certainly won’t be upset about mixing their main pieces into tournament lineups are relatively low ownership.
I have tournament interest, at least to some extent, in all five of Toronto’s starters. Kyle Lowry is playing huge minutes again this season with 37 minutes per game while Pascal Siakam has played 39 and 43 minutes in Toronto’s first two games. Lowry has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season while Siakam has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over that time. Both players are high-floor options given their average production and playing time, they just don’t stand out as top plays on the slate.
Fred VanVleet is a little more volatile as he is typically going to be the third scoring option offensively, but we should expect 34-36 minutes from him in most games and he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute since last season. He’s priced a little too close to Lowry for my liking, but there isn’t much of a difference in their range of outcomes if Lowry ends up picking up considerably more ownership.
Aron Baynes is actually a really interesting play on this slate. Baynes played 28.1 minutes against the Pelicans in the opener but then he only played 19.8 minutes against the Spurs as San Antonio has a small lineup and Chris Boucher went nuts off the bench. The Sixers are the opposite of the Spurs, however, as they have a true, big center in Joel Embiid. Baynes is a strong per-minute producer who averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with Phoenix last season, so the main question with him is playing time. This looks like a matchup where he should be preferred to Boucher and we actually had a Toronto beat writer tweet last night that there is a good chance Alex Len is in the rotation tonight because of Philadelphia’s frontcourt size. This makes me think we get Baynes pushing 30 minutes at a cheap price tag. There’s no reason to trust him in cash games, but he does make for an interesting tournament value on DraftKings where we can roster two centers and he is likely to have very little ownership.
O.G. Anunoby is another player here who projects as a neutral play. He’s playing about 36 minutes per game and has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. He’s not a great value, he’s not a bad value, he’s kind of just there. If I end up with some in tournaments I’ll be fine with it, but he’s not someone that I’m expecting to roster tonight with any amount of regularity.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,500), Pascal Siakam ($8,000)
Philadelphia 76ers
Like the Raptors, Philadelphia is also mostly healthy for this game. Embiid is listed as probable after being a late scratch last game and the only other player on the injury report is Furkan Korkmaz who is out.
I don’t love anything from the Sixers tonight, as they really only have three trustworthy DFS producers and they all rank behind other players at their price points and/or positions for me.
Embiid is the most appealing option from the main trio as he averages about 1.5 DraftKings points per minute and should play 32-34 minutes assuming he is healthy. The problem is that the center position is loaded at every price point and, also, there are players at other positions that I like more than Embiid at his price point because I think they’ll play a few more minutes and they also produce at the same rate or higher.
Ben Simmons is priced pretty much out of consideration for me as he’s not much less expensive than Curry or Westbrook. Tobias Harris is always capable of posting a big game at his mid-range salary, but he’s much better when Embiid isn’t on the floor. He loses usage and rebounds when Embiid is active, as we expect him to be tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,600)
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (+5.5): 226
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks somehow were blown out by the Knicks on Sunday in what will surely be one of the most unusual scores of the season. They’re fully healthy for this game, which means we can mainly focus on the main trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday.
Antetokounmpo played 36 minutes in Milwaukee’s only competitive game of the season so far, so there is reason for optimism tonight as the Bucks are only 5.5-point favorites in Miami. The Heat did a good job of slowing Giannis down in the postseason, but that probably scares enough people off him to outweigh the risk for me. The fact is this is the best per-minute producer in the NBA by a wide margin, he’s relatively inexpensive by his standards, and there is a good chance this game is competitive, and we get 34-plus minutes.
Beyond Giannis, we have Middleton and Holiday at mid-range price points. Both players should see 34-plus minutes if this game is competitive and they could be forced to take on a bigger offensive role if Miami does successfully limit Giannis. Middleton has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute since last season while Holiday has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in his first 91 minutes with the Bucks.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800), Khris Middleton ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), Khris Middleton ($7,800), Jrue Holiday ($6,400)
Miami Heat
The Heat have listed Jimmy Butler as doubtful, so we should be able to find some value here against a fast-paced Milwaukee team.
Bam Adebayo is the starting point for me as he averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Butler last season compared to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with Butler on the floor. The difference isn’t huge, but it is there. We saw Adebayo’s usage rate increase from 21.1 percent to 23.7 percent and his assist rate increase from 22.3 percent to 30.8 percent in the games that he played without Butler. He only played 28.2 minutes against the Pelicans in his last game, but it was a non-competitive fourth quarter. He played 34.7 minutes against Orlando in the opener and I expect 33-34 minutes tonight assuming this game is close.
Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic should play bigger roles without Butler as well. We could see Dragic slide into the starting lineup, but it was Andre Iguodala who started the second half in Butler’s place against New Orleans. If Dragic starts, I would consider it a minutes bump, but the reality is that he should play at least 28-30 minutes tonight even if he comes off the bench. Dragic averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and 29.6 minutes per game in 12 games without Butler last season. Herro averaged 28.1 minutes per game and 0.90 DraftKings points per minute without Butler last season, but it’s tough to rely on those numbers too much since we saw Herro improve as his rookie season went on. He’s now a normal starter for Miami and we should get 32-34 minutes from Herro tonight against a Bucks team that typically is toward the top of the league in three-point attempts allowed. Herro is especially appealing on FanDuel as a $4,500 small forward.
Duncan Robinson isn’t as exciting as the first three players mentioned because he’s a scoring dependent three-point shooter who doesn’t do much else on the floor, but the Bucks are a matchup that should favor him as they typically force the ball out of the primary ball-handler’s hands and into the hands of wing three-point shooters. Still, I can’t view Robinson as anything more than a tertiary option on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,000), Goran Dragic ($5,800), Tyler Herro ($5,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,200), Tyler Herro ($4,500)
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder (+5): 218
Orlando Magic
This is another team that isn’t dealing with any new injuries. Nikola Vucevic looks like the top option as there is still some upside at his price point. The opportunity cost at the position makes it difficult to prioritize him, but we should get around 32 minutes here and Vucevic has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season while leading the Magic in usage and rebounding percentage. Oklahoma City is also without Al Horford tonight, so Vucevic will get to match up against the Thunder bench.
The rest of this team looks to be efficiently priced as none of the starters are playing huge minutes and none of them produce much more than a fantasy point per minute except for Vucevic. If we get news that Aaron Gordon is no longer on a minutes limit then he would start to look appealing but, assuming we can only expect about 30 minutes out of him, his salary is where it should be as well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,400)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Horford will rest tonight on the second leg of a back-to-back and George Hill is listed as questionable. Horford has been starting and playing about 30 minutes at center, with Mike Muscala as his primary back-up. When Horford missed a game in the preseason, Muscala slid into the starting lineup and played 17 minutes. We have a different coaching staff in Oklahoma City, but Muscala played 24 and 28 minutes in his two starts last season. My best guess here is that Muscala starts in place of Horford and plays about 25 minutes. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season, so he projects as a strong point-per-dollar value on DraftKings at $3,200. The only issue is that he is only center eligible, so the opportunity cost is high. He is a power forward on FanDuel, but he’s also $4,100 on a site where a lot of players are underpriced, and we aren’t scraping for value.
Hamidou Diallo has been Hill’s primary back-up and he would probably see more minutes if Hill sits. I would actually be more interested in Theo Maledon, however, as I would expect Maledon to pick up a few more minutes and he’s less expensive than Diallo. Neither player would be particularly interesting to me on FanDuel even if Hill is out.
As far as the main pieces of the Thunder rotation, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to look like a strong option, though this is a tough matchup against a solid Orlando defense. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.5 percent usage rate and 31.1 percent assist rate in 134 minutes so far this season, including the preseason. We should get around 34 minutes from him tonight assuming this game is competitive.
Darius Bazley is a player that I seem to always be lower on than I should, but he looks like a reasonable option tonight. He has played 33.1 minutes per game so far this season and leads the team with 16 rebound chances per game. He could see a couple extra chances tonight with Horford out as well. Bazley has only averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season, but he is a young player who seems to be improving and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute so far this year including the preseason.
One other value piece to look to tonight is Aleksej Pokusevski. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in 96 minutes since the start of the preseason. He’s raw and we don’t really know what to expect from him long-term on a per-minute basis, but he has power forward eligibility at the same price point as Muscala on DraftKings. He played 14 minutes last night and I expect we see at least 18-20 from him tonight with Horford out.
To sum up the Thunder, we have a lot of players who potentially will benefit from Horford and, possibly, Hill missing this game. The problem is that it’s tough to trust any of them to play big minutes and we also have two rookies in Maledon and Pokusevski who we don’t have any sort of meaningful NBA sample on yet. They also have a tough matchup against Orlando.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100), Darius Bazley ($5,800), Mike Muscala ($3,200), Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000)
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-2.5): 222
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have been one of the more fun teams to roster players from this season as they are playing their main guys huge minutes so far. All five starters are averaging at least 31 minutes per game through their first three games, with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball all playing at least 35 minutes in a competitive game against the Spurs on Sunday.
Williamson and Ingram both look like strong plays at the forward positions, though there is plenty of competition at their price point from other plays on this slate. Williamson’s biggest issue last season was his playing time, but that’s not a problem at all anymore. He played 38 minutes against the Spurs and isn’t restricted at all this season. Williamson has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate, 12.5 percent rebounding rate and 11.5 percent assist rate in 25 games alongside Ingram so far in his career. Ingram, meanwhile, has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.1 percent usage rate, 8.6 percent rebounding rate and 19.0 percent assist rate in his 25 games alongside Zion. I prefer Williamson between these two where they’re similarly priced, but they both look like strong plays.
Ball dealt with some foul trouble in his first game, but he played 33.4 minutes against Miami on Christmas and then 37.4 minutes against the Spurs in his most recent game. My expectation is that we continue to get around 34 minutes a game from Ball. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute since last season, but he’s a player whose game-to-game production can vary drastically since he’s an inconsistent shooter. He stuffs the stat sheet with peripherals so, whenever his shot is falling, he can put up monster games.
Eric Bledsoe is still inexpensive and has been wildly disappointing as one of the more popular plays on the slate the last two games. I still expect Bledsoe to play 30-32 minutes in most games, but there are a lot of mouths to feed on this team. He’s coming from the Bucks, though, where he averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 45 games with Giannis and Middleton active last season, so it isn’t like he’s someone that doesn’t have a track record of producing even when he’s playing with higher usage players. He has a 20.4 percent usage rate this season, which is fourth among the starters but is still a decent usage percentage for someone who can pick up peripherals as well. Bledsoe does lead the team with 11.3 potential assists per game so far, which is encouraging. It’s also encouraging that he’s running point with the second unit with Ball and Ingram on the bench. I don’t think we need to look to Bledsoe in cash games on this slate, but I do have tournament interest because he’s the same exact play tonight that he has been on the previous slates where he was a consensus top play. There is volatility and a low floor here and those are typically great players to target after they’ve burned the field a couple of times.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,100), Brandon Ingram ($8,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,600), Brandon Ingram ($8,500), Eric Bledsoe ($4,800)
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are healthy and there isn’t much to be interested in here outside of the main trio of Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton.
Booker played 38.2 minutes against the Kings on Saturday, which was the last competitive game the Suns played. He has a 31.9 percent usage rate through his first three regular season games with Paul, but his assist percentage is only 16.2 percent and he’s averaged only 7.7 potential assists per game. This is mostly in line with what we expected coming into the season as Booker is still dominating usage, but he is losing peripherals playing alongside Paul. This makes him a more volatile option since he is more scoring dependent than he was last season. There is still upside but on a slate with so many options it’s tough to get to Booker over so many other expensive options on DraftKings. He is priced much more favorably on FanDuel at $7,500, so that is where I would look to roster him.
Paul looks like the best option to me on DraftKings at $2,000 less expensive than Booker, while he is only $200 less expensive on FanDuel. Paul has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with his new team so far and he averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute last season with Oklahoma City. Paul played 32.8 minutes on Saturday and I expect about 32 minutes again tonight as long as this game remains competitive.
Ayton is interesting to me in tournaments. Center is a deep position so we need to look to players with the ability to produce high raw fantasy point totals and Ayton certainly can do that. The risks in Ayton are that his playing time has been somewhat disappointing so far this season with only 27.8 minutes per game. While there have been some extenuating circumstances like blowouts, he still only played 29.9 minutes in a three point loss on Saturday. The other risk is that he will be facing off against Steven Adams, who has given Ayton problems so far in his young career. Ayton has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in four meetings with Adams in his career, compared to his career average of 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. Ayton has yet to reach 10 rebounds against Adams despite playing at least 32 minutes in all four games.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($7,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,500), Chris Paul ($7,300)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers (-10.5): 227.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is missing Karl-Anthony Towns tonight and they’ll also be without Josh Okogie, which opens up minutes on the wing. Not injury related, but Jake Layman will be heading to the bench tonight as well. I haven’t seen yet who will replace him in the starting lineup, but we saw Juancho Hernangomez start over him in the second half of their last game, so he is my guess.
Towns’ absence opens up more usage for everyone and also opens up frontcourt minutes for Naz Reid. Reid is an excellent producer on a per-minute basis, but it’s tough for him to find his way onto the floor since he plays behind Towns. Reid played 27.8 minutes in Minnesota’s blowout loss to the Lakers on Sunday. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 558 minutes since the beginning of last season. He’s still affordable across the industry and also has power forward eligibility, which is extremely useful.
Other than Reid, I don’t anticipate prioritizing much from this team in a tough matchup where they are double-digit underdogs against the Clippers. D’Angelo Russell is the highest upside play if you’re chasing ceiling in tournaments and he is affordable. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.5 percent usage rate in 421 minutes without Towns on the floor since joining the Timberwolves. We can also gamble on moderately priced Malik Beasley or Anthony Edwards in GPPs, but I don’t feel particularly confident in them. Edwards in particular is interesting because he should be blowout proof. He played 28.5 minutes on Sunday, including the final six minutes and forty seconds of the blowout. I would be a lot more interested if he were a little bit less expensive.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Naz Reid ($5,100), D’Angelo Russell ($7,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Naz Reid ($4,500), D’Angelo Russell ($7,300)
Los Angeles Clippers
Kawhi Leonard is questionable for this game after missing Sunday’s blowout loss against the Clippers. Marcus Morris is still out for the Clippers. For now, I’m treating it as if Leonard will play. One reason for that is the Clippers are double-digit favorites and that seems like a lot if Leonard is expected to sit. The other, more useful, reason is that it will be very easy to late swap from Leonard to Paul George if I need to after lock.
Assuming Leonard is in, he’s available at a favorable price point against a weak Minnesota defense. Leonard has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.5 percent usage rate in 39 regular season games played alongside George. We should get at least 32 or 33 minutes from Leonard if the ‘Wolves keep this game close and, if they don’t, there is a good chance that Leonard outproduced his per-minute averages.
George grades out as a strong play at his salary even if Leonard is active as well. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute alongside Leonard so far with a 28.3 percent usage rate. I would expect at least 33 or 34 minutes from George if this game is competitive. If Leonard sits, George looks even better as he has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute in 12 games without Leonard.
My interest in the Clippers is mostly limited to those two, assuming Leonard plays, but there are a couple of FanDuel specific values in Lou Williams and Ivica Zubac. They don’t play enough minutes to be true priorities on FanDuel since so many players are underpriced, but they do offer plenty of upside at their respective salaries.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,400), Paul George ($8,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George ($7,600), Lou Williams ($4,600), Ivica Zubac ($4,200)
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings (+2): 227
Denver Nuggets
Jokic has been an absolute monster this season and he’s coming off another huge game last night. He leads the league with 19.7 potential assists per game this season and he’s fifth with 19.7 rebound chances per game. He’s led the Nuggets in usage, rebounding percentage and assist percentage since the start of lasts season and he’s continuing to do so this season. The other big news for Jokic this year is that Mason Plumlee is no longer on Denver Jokic averaged 36 minutes per game in games without Plumlee last season and he has averaged 38.1 minutes per game through his first three games this season. With no quality back-up pushing him for minutes, we’ve seen Mike Malone willing to give him a lot more run. There is some concern here with it being the second game of a back-to-back, especially because we’ve seen a lot of teams so far run noticeably looser rotations in the second game. Still, there’s no guarantee that Denver does that tonight and, even if they do, Jokic is still likely to be one of the highest scorers on the slate in 33 or 34 minutes. It also helps that Jokic only played 34.1 minutes in last night’s blowout win as he spent the final five minutes of the fourth quarter on the bench. Maybe that will help him play his normal allotment of minutes tonight.
It’s just tournament shots for me outside of Jokic. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter both come with high enough ceilings that they warrant consideration, but they’re impossible for me to prioritize over some of the other players that I’ve talked about so far.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,300)
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are fully healthy coming into tonight’s game against the Nuggets. None of Sacramento’s players look like priorities within the context of the entire slate, but they do give us a lot of options as “last guy in” type plays in tournaments as they’re fairly priced. De’Aaron Fox should play about 34 minutes as long as this game is competitive, and he offers plenty of upside with a 29.5 percent usage rate and 33.5 percent assist rate since the start of last season. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over that time. Similarly, Buddy Hield has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and played about 33 and 36 minutes in Sacramento’s two games against Phoenix over the weekend.
The frontcourt rotation is messy with Richaun Holmes, Hassan Whiteside and Marvin Bagley splitting time at center so I can’t trust any of these guys outside of maybe taking shots at them in large field tournaments. Tyrese Haliburton should see about 26 minutes off the bench as well, but his salary is high enough that I don’t have much interest on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,600), Buddy Hield ($6,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,900), Buddy Hield ($5,400)
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