NBA DFS Today: Optimal Lineup Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

The NBA Deep Dive is our most in-depth NBA DFS article, offering analysis of some of the top picks and optimal strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups on the slate today. Used in conjunction with Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections, ownership projections and Boom/Bust tool, it should help you to improve the quality of your lineups. With news breaking throughout the day and the NBA injury reports being released, the best place to find all of today’s starters is our Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page.

With so many injuries popping up throughout the day in the NBA, Adam Strangis has all the NBA injury report news in one place, tracking all of the breaking news on who is and who is out for starting lineups today in his Daily NBA Injury Report.

The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks & Optimal Lineup Strategy

Guard

Donovan Mitchell ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) is one of the highest projected players on tonight’s short slate. Mitchell has a massive 35.5% usage rate this season and he has also contributed at 27.7% assist rate. He has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and is facing an Indiana team that ranks 23rd in defensive rating- though they also rank 22nd in pace.

Fred VanVleet ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) has not been as productive on a per-minute basis as many people expected this season, but he has played huge minutes. He leads the Raptors with 38.5 minutes per game this season and their rotation is likely to be a bit tighter than usual with Pascal Siakam and Khem Birch out tonight. VanVleet has averaged 1.0.3 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.

Tyler Herro ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) struggled down the stretch against the Lakers last night, but he has played well overall this season. Herro has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.7% usage rate and 20.4% assist rate. He comes off the bench for Miami, but he is frequently in the closing lineup. He has averaged 32.4 minutes per game this season. Herro is a good play with or without Jimmy Butler, but if Butler sits, there will be more minutes and usage available for Herro.

Note: Butler has been ruled out. Kyle Lowry becomes a stronger option in his absence as well.

Forward

Paul George ($10,200 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) is the lone pay-up option tonight. He has a difficult matchup against Miami, who rank 27th in pace and seventh in defensive rating this season, but he has played extremely well in Kawhi Leonard’s absence. For the season, George has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.5% usage rate, 12.4% rebounding rate and 26.9% assist rate.

George was showing up as one of the best options to play in tournaments and cash games in Awesemo’s NBA DFS lineup optimizer. See who else is popping as optimal plays in Awesemo’s free DraftKings NBA cheat sheet and FanDuel NBA cheat sheet today.

Scottie Barnes ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is likely to benefit from Toronto’s short-handed frontcourt. Barnes has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and 34.5 minutes per game this season. With Siakam and Birch sidelined, it would not be surprising to see at least 36 to 38 minutes tonight from Barnes.

Gary Trent Jr. ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) stands out as an elite value on DraftKings. He is a viable option on FanDuel as well, but DraftKings is the site where he is a priority. It is likely that Trent will play about 36 minutes tonight, as he has averaged 33.7 minutes per game for the season and will probably pick up a couple of extra minutes without Siakam and Birch. He may not offer the same ceiling as VanVleet or Barnes, but he has still produced a respectable 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Chris Boucher ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is never safe, since Nick Nurse typically does whatever he can to avoid using him, but there are plenty of frontcourt minutes available tonight and there is limited value on the slate. Boucher is an excellent per-minute producer with 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.17 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. At a near minimum price tag on DraftKings, Boucher does not need to play a ton of minutes to justify his salary on this slate.

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Center

Andre Drummond ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) looks like a strong option regardless of who ends up being available for the 76ers (since Joel Embiid is out). Tobias Harris and Seth Curry are questionable, but they would have no impact on Drummond’s projected minutes and only a minimal impact on his projected production. Drummond has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute and, most importantly, 35 minutes per game in his three starts in place of Embiid.

Terry McBride also has Drummond as one of the top daily fantasy plays on tonight’s slate, and he tells you why in his NBA DFS Optimal Lineup Picks & Leverage Leaders article today.

Rudy Gobert ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is $900 less expensive on DraftKings tonight than he was in his last game. Gobert struggled with foul trouble against Atlanta on Tuesday, but he typically plays 32 or 33 minutes in competitive games. He has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season and offers a high ceiling even though he does not project as strongly as Drummond.

Bam Adebayo ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) played about 34 minutes last night as he dealt with foul trouble in the first half but then played most of the second half before fouling out in overtime. There is no official injury report from Miami yet, but there have not been any reports of Adebayo sitting out on the second half of a back-to-back. Adebayo has produced 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in 85 minutes without Butler on the court this season and 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in 1,156 minutes without him on the floor since the start of last season.

Precious Achiuwa ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) has been Toronto’s starting center for most of the season, but he was moved to the bench when Siakam returned to the lineup. With Siakam and Birch out tonight, Achiuwa is likely to start and see a bump in playing time. He has averaged 23.7 minutes per game this season, but, barring foul trouble, he should play more minutes tonight with his back-up sidelined. Achiuwa has been productive when he has been on the floor with 0.95 DraftKings points per minute.

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].