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The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups Today | Bam Adebayo 11/23

Adam Scherer



The NBA Deep Dive is our most in-depth NBA DFS article, offering analysis of some of the top picks and optimal strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups on the slate today. Used in conjunction with Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections, ownership projections and Boom/Bust Tool, it should help you to improve the quality of your lineups. With news breaking throughout the day and the NBA injury reports being released, the best place to find all of today’s starters is our Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page.

The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks & Optimal Lineup Strategy


Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) should see an increased workload tonight with LeBron James suspended. Horton-Tucker has average 34.4 minutes per game in his three starts without James this season and he has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. His role could also expand as Anthony Davis is questionable tonight with an illness.

Horton-Tucker is one of the best leverage plays today, which Terry McBride wrote at length about in his NBA DFS Optimal Lineup & Leverage Plays article.

Kemba Walker ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) and Derrick Rose ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) are mediocre plays from a median projection standpoint, but whichever is playing better is likely to play more minutes than average. They have a favorable matchup tonight against the Lakers, who have played at the league’s second fastest pace. Walker has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season while Rose has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. Rose is also questionable tonight, if he sits, Walker becomes a priority.

Alec Burks ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) has benefited from Tom Thibodeau giving the Knicks’ second unit more minutes in recent games. Burks has averaged 21 minutes per game this season, but he has averaged 23.5 minutes per game over his last 10 and 25.8 minutes per game over his last five. For the season, Burks has produced 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. There is still some risk here since there is no guarantee that he sees increased playing time going forward, but New York’s recent rotations make him look like one of the better values on tonight’s slate.

Cory Joseph ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) is a risky option as he is not a great fantasy producer, averaging 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he has a difficult matchup against the Miami Heat. He is likely to see plenty of playing time, however, as the Pistons are short-handed tonight with Isaiah Stewart, Kelly Olynyk and Killian Hayes sidelined. Joseph started in place of Hayes against the Lakers in Detroit’s last game and played 38.6 minutes. Joseph has averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a strong point-per-dollar value even if he plays a few minutes less tonight than he did on Sunday.

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Paul George ($10,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute and 34.9 minutes per game this season. He leads the Clippers with a 34.2% usage rate and 27.1% assist rate this season. George will look even better if any of Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic or Davis miss tonight’s game since there are not that many places to spend our money.

Julius Randle ($10,000 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) looks like more of a luxury than a necessity on DraftKings, but he is wildly underpriced on FanDuel. Randle has averaged 35.5 minutes per game this season, and he is the one player on the Knicks to play heavy minutes almost every night. He leads New York with 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Randle is EMac’s top play of the day, which he explained further in his NBA DFS Building Blocks article.

Larry Nance Jr. ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) started the season off slowly, but he has seen increased playing time recently as Portland has frequently used small lineups to close games and they have also cut Cody Zeller’s minutes. Nance has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played at least 20 minutes in six straight games.

Hamidou Diallo ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is a mediocre play on FanDuel, but he offers value on DraftKings. He has been in and out of the Pistons’ rotation this season, but he played 21.2 minutes against the Lakers on Sunday. He has produced 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in 134 total minutes played this season. He is a risky option since he has a difficult matchup and there are a lot of ways that the Pistons’ rotation could go tonight, but it is likely that he plays at least another 20 to 22 minutes off the bench.

Trey Lyles ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is likely to be one of the best values on tonight’s slate. Detroit has not announced a starting lineup yet, but there is a good chance that Lyles will replace the suspended Isaiah Stewart. He was Stewart’s back-up in the first half of the last game. In the second half, Josh Jackson subbed in to shoot free throws when Stewart was ejected and then he was replaced by Lyles. Lyles immediately picked up his fourth foul, however, and returned to the bench. If Lyles starts tonight’s game, it is likely that he plays at least 24 minutes at minimum salary on DraftKings and very close to minimum salary on FanDuel. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute, a 21.6% usage rate and 14.2% rebounding rate.

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Nikola Jokic ($11,400 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) is questionable for tonight’s game after missing Denver’s last couple of games. If he is able to play, he will be the top-projected player on tonight’s slate. Jokic has averaged 1.95 DraftKings points per minute without Michael Porter Jr. on the floor this season, and he should play 34 or 35 minutes if he is able to play.

Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is also questionable tonight as the Miami Heat take on the Detroit Pistons. Adebayo has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and 31.7 minutes per game in 12 games played alongside Jimmy Butler this season. He should be able to have his way against a weak Detroit team that is missing both of its centers. If Adebayo misses tonight’s game, Dewayne Dedmon will become a strong value option.

Nerlens Noel ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) should see plenty of playing time tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble. Mitchell Robinson is out for the Knicks, while Taj Gibson is doubtful. Noel played 29.1 minutes two games ago in the game where Robinson was injured, including the final 21 minutes and 55 seconds of the game. He then started last game against the Bulls and logged 26.2 minutes. He also dealt with foul trouble in that game, however, picking up three fouls in the first half and two more in the third quarter. He also was not in the closing lineup as the Bulls closed with a frontcourt of Derrick Jones Jr. and DeMar DeRozan. The Knicks will need Noel’s rim protection tonight against the Lakers so he could play 30-plus minutes if he is able to avoid fouling. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.

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Our DFS NBA projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. View our DraftKings NBA ownership, our Yahoo! NBA ownership and our FanDuel ownership. We also have Yahoo! rankings, FanDuel NBA rankings and DraftKings NBA ownership rankings for today's slate. Check out our DFS NBA rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA daily fantasy projections. Looking for more DFS NBA tips and the best NBA DFS picks today?

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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