This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 1
O.G. Anunoby is still out for the Raptors. Norman Powell is questionable. Terence Davis has started the last two games with both of them out and played 19 and 26.2 minutes. If Powell returns, he would be in line for big minutes as long as he isn’t on a minutes limit.
Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are all similarly priced on DraftKings and project about the same as well. We have had this situation for a while now and I don’t think it’s a cop out to say it really doesn’t matter which one you play. All three are strong options at their prices, so use whichever one fits best in your lineup whether that means filling out a certain position or rostering the lowest owned to add a contrarian play to your lineup. There is a bigger gap in pricing on FanDuel and Lowry stands out as the top option as a result. The trio has played 15 games together this season. In those games, Lowry has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 36.3 minutes per game, VanVleet has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 35.8 minutes per game and Siakam has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and 35.8 minutes per game.
Davis will project as a decent value if Powell is out. As mentioned before, he has played 19 and 26 minutes in his two starts so, while his minutes floor is low, he does have a path to useful minutes. In those two starts, he has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.7 percent usage rate.
Aron Baynes is finally getting substantial playing time. There is risk in rostering him because he can go back to playing 16 minutes a game at any time, but he’s played at least 22 minutes in three consecutive games. He played 29.2 minutes in this matchup on Sunday. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a strong value if he continues to get meaningful minutes. The absence of Anunoby and, potentially, Powell makes that more likely since it makes it more difficult for Toronto to use Pascal Siakam at the five. If Baynes plays fewer minutes tonight, it is likely that Chris Boucher has a big game. The matchup against Vucevic isn’t one where I would typically peg Boucher for additional playing time since Vucevic is a high-usage big, but it’s at least worth noting that Boucher’s salary is falling and he would serve as leverage against Baynes in tournaments if Baynes is popular.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,300), Fred VanVleet ($7,400), Pascal Siakam ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,500)
Update: I missed that Chuma Okeke isn’t on the injury report tonight. His expected return makes Khem Birch’s path to meaningful minutes murkier than I was thinking originally.
Aaron Gordon is out tonight after injuring his ankle last game. I expect Gary Clark to start in his place. Clark has averaged 31.6 minutes per game in three starts this season, but only 0.42 DraftKings points per minute.
Nikola Vucevic has been great for the Magic this season, averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute while leading the team in usage rate and rebounding rate. He also has contributed a 17.6 percent assist rate. He should get more opportunities tonight as well with Aaron Gordon sidelined. In two games without Gordon this season, Vucevic has a 31.8 percent usage rate, 21 percent rebounding rate and 21.8 percent assist rate compared to a 27.5 percent usage rate, 16.8 percent rebounding rate and 19.6 percent assist rate in 19 games played with Gordon.
Cole Anthony and Evan Fournier should benefit from Gordon’s absence as well. Anthony has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.5 percent usage rate and 26.3 percent assist rate in his two starts without Gordon this season compared to 0.83 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.6 percent usage rate and 20.2 percent assist rate in his 11 starts with Gordon active. Fournier has only played one game without Gordon this season, but he had a 31.4 percent usage rate in that game and he has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute with a 27 percent usage rate in the seven games that he has played without Markelle Fultz this season.
Terrence Ross may go overlooked as a beneficiary since he plays with the second unit, but Gordon has been playing on the second unit as well. Ross has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.4 percent usage rate in 153 minutes with Gordon on the floor and Vucevic off the floor compared to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.4 percent usage rate in 92 minutes without either of Vucevic or Gordon on the floor. If we assume that Ross plays about 28 minutes tonight, we can expect 40-plus percent of his minutes to come without Vucevic.
Khem Birch has typically been backing up Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, so he could see a couple extra minutes tonight. He will be tough to roster on DraftKings since he is a center, but he’s a value option at power forward on FanDuel. Birch has averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season and is likely to play 24 to 26 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8.200), Evan Fournier ($6,300), Cole Anthony ($5,500), Terrence Ross ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,800), Evan Fournier ($6,400), Cole Anthony ($5,000), Terrence Ross ($4,700)
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Los Angeles Clippers
Normally, the Clippers are a team that we can pretty comfortably pass on when Leonard and George are both healthy. Tonight is a little bit different, however, as they face the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are fourth in pace and 25th in defensive rating so far this season. Since James Harden joined the team on January 16th, the Nets are 27th in defensive rating, but they have allowed 118 points per 100 possessions compared to their season average of 112.7 points per 100 possessions. We’re only talking about nine games so it is noisy, but this is a team that clearly is going to just try and outscore their opponents without bothering to try to stop them from scoring.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the obvious focal points here. They have played 16 games together this season. In those 16 games, Leonard has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute and 33.9 minutes per game while George has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 34.8 minutes per game.
Reggie Jackson remains affordably priced in Beverley’s absence. He played 25.7 minutes against the Knicks on Sunday and he has a 20.4 percent usage rate in three starts alongside Leonard and George this season. Jackson has played 18, 25 and 26 minutes in those starts, but the game where he only played 18 minutes was a 38 point win and he didn’t play at all in the fourth quarter.
Patterson and Marcus Morris will have value if Batum is ruled out. Patterson is far from exciting, but he is close to minimum salary and the matchup against the Nets should allow everyone to produce at a higher rate than normal. I wouldn’t prioritize him, but it’s not the end of the world if he is starting and you need to use him as a value option. Morris came off the bench with Batum out, but he closed the game over Patterson. I expect that to happen more often than not and he has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season. If we get 26 to 28 minutes from Morris in this matchup, he is likely to pay off his salary nicely.
Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac are difficult to trust, but they both have high ceilings for their price points in this matchup. Ibaka has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute and 25.3 minutes per game in 15 games with Leonard and George active this season while Zubac has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and 19 minutes per game in 16 games with the duo active.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,200), Paul George ($8,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,600), Paul George ($8,400)
Harden isn’t on the injury report, so the Nets should be at full strength tonight against the Clippers.
Harden’s return makes it difficult to prioritize anything on the Nets. We can obviously still take shots on the three stars in tournaments since their talent gives them massive ceilings at relatively low ownership, but they won’t project as top plays at their current salaries. The non-Big Three essentially become useless, especially where they’ve been priced up as a result of getting more playing time over the last couple of games with Durant and then Harden out.
Kevin Durant, Harden and Kyrie Irving have played four games together so far. In those four games, Irving has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.1 percent usage rate and 20.8 percent assist rate. Harden has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.5 percent usage rate and 37.8 percent assist rate. Durant has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 30 percent usage rate and 18.7 percent assist rate. He leads the trio in rebounding rate as well at 12.1 percent. I think that it’s likely we see production continue at similar levels, though I expect Harden’s usage rate to increase. I think Durant will be the most consistent of the group because he offers the highest rebounding rate and rebounds should be more consistent in this situation than scoring or assists.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant ($10,100), Kyrie Irving ($8,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyrie Irving ($9,500), James Harden ($10,500)
We don’t have an injury report yet for Memphis, so I am assuming they have the same players available that they had last night. We do know that Jonas Valanciunas is still out.
Nobody on Memphis reached 30 minutes in last night’s game against the Spurs. That is in part because the game was a blowout, but it is also because Memphis continues to run a deep rotation that limits the playing time of its starters. This was the case for a large portion of the season before their COVID layoff and it has been the case in the two games after. If tonight’s game is competitive, I expect that we get 30-32 minutes from players like Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke, but I don’t have much confidence in them getting more playing time than that.
Morant is relatively inexpensive, so we can look to him in tournaments as long as his ownership is low. The risk in rostering Morant is that his projected minutes are lower than most players in his price range. The upside is that Morant has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season so, if the rotation changes and he finds a way to play 34 or 35 minutes, he is very likely to give us a tournament winning score.
The center minutes last night were once again split between Xavier Tillman and Gorgui Dieng, with Dieng playing more minutes for the second game in a row. Tillman is easier to roster from a positional standpoint since he is a power forward, but Dieng is the better fantasy producer at 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season compared to 0.99 DraftKings points per minute for Tillman.
Brooks is second to Morant with a 26.1 percent usage rate this season. His floor is extremely low since he is a scoring dependent player who doesn’t seem likely to get more than 30 minutes, but his salary is low for someone who gets as much usage as he does. He is particularly affordable on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,500), Gorgui Dieng ($4,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,800), Dillon Brooks ($5,100)
Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis once again stand out as the top plays tonight from the Pacers. Brogdon has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 36.2 minutes per game in 10 games without Oladipo and Warren and with Sabonis active this season. He has a 27.9 percent usage rate and 29.3 percent assist rate in those games. Sabonis has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute and 35.8 minutes per game in those 10 games. Remember, he left one game early with an injury so his average playing time is actually a little bit higher. He has a 23.8 percent usage rate, 24 percent assist rate and 17.8 percent rebounding rate.
One negative for Sabonis is that Goga Bitadze has joined the rotation recently. This means that Sabonis isn’t getting as many minutes as the back-up center and those minutes are extremely valuable. The matchup against the Grizzlies is a tough one as well as Memphis has been the second most efficient defense in the league this season, but Brogdon and Sabonis are still quality options based on their roles in the offense and heavy minutes load.
Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb both look like secondary options tonight. Turner has averaged 35.4 minutes per game and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in eight games alongside Brogdon and Sabonis without Oladipo or Warren. Turner only played 29.4 minutes against the Sixers on Sunday, but he also dealt with some foul trouble. Lamb’s return to the starting lineup should lower Turner’s usage a little bit and also lowers his minutes floor because it gives Indiana another available wing so they could play Sabonis more minutes at center in place of Turner if they want to. Turner is cheap enough that he projects as a good mid-range option as long as he gets 32-plus minutes.
Lamb has started three games now and has averaged 27.2 minutes per game in those starts, including 30.5 minutes against the Sixers on Sunday. Lamb has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in those starts and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,700), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,900), Myles Turner ($6,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,100), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400), Myles Turner ($7,400)
Portland Trail Blazers
C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Derrick Jones Jr. are all out again tonight. Nassir Little is questionable after playing 29.6 minutes and scoring a career-high 30 points last night. If he sits, Carmelo Anthony will most likely return to the starting lineup, though it could also be Rodney Hood or even Anfernee Simons.
Damian Lillard only played 27.4 minutes in last night’s blowout loss to the Bucks and now he gets a phenomenal matchup against the Wizards. Washington leads the league in pace this season and has allowed the third most points per 100 possessions. Lillard has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.3 percent usage rate in his six games without McCollum this season and 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.2 percent usage rate in 10 games without him since the start of last season. Lillard is still expensive, but we don’t have players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic at his price point on this slate.
Enes Kanter only played 25 minutes in last night’s blowout loss, but he has played at least 30 minutes in Portland’s last three competitive games. The Wizards have the seventh worst rebounding rate in the NBA this season, though it is worth noting that they have allowed the fewest offensive rebounds per game. Kanter should have the rebounding advantage against Washington’s frontcourt and he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in his six starts without McCollum. One risk for Kanter is that this game could potentially go small with Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans together in the Wizards’ frontcourt, but I think there is a better chance that the Wizards with one of their centers at the end of the game.
Gary Trent Jr., Robert Covington and Simons are all viable options as well because the Wizards are such a great matchup. Trent has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and 36.3 minutes per game in four starts since McCollum’s injury. Covington played about 20 first half minutes last night and could be in line for 34-plus minutes tonight if this game is competitive. Simons has averaged 25.6 minutes per game in the six games without McCollum and he has played at least 26 minutes in each of the last four. He has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Little is a risky value option if he is able to play. The reason he is risky is that he played about 15 minutes in his start two games ago. He played about 30 minutes last night, however, so there is clearly the potential for value here as well. If he is out, Hood would probably play at least 26 minutes at a near minimum salary. Anthony would be a top value if he starts as well.
Basically, just roster whatever players you can from the Blazers with Lillard and Kanter being the priorities.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($10,700), Enes Kanter ($6,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($10,200), Enes Kanter ($7,000), Robert Covington ($4,900), Anfernee Simons ($3,800)
The Wizards are up there with the Blazers as the best team to target on this slate. Russell Westbrook played 34.6 minutes against the Nets and appears to be fully healthy. Westbrook and Scott Brooks both said recently that this is the first time all season Westbrook has been healthy. Oftentimes, those types of comments mean nothing. In this case, however, I am buying in. Westbrook has played four games since returning from injury, with the game against the Nets being the first that he played his normal number of minutes. Over those four games, he has averaged 24.9 drives per 36 minutes. In Westbrook’s first seven games this season he only averaged 14 drives per 36 minutes. Last season, Westbrook averaged 20.8 drives per 36 minutes with the Rockets, so his lack of drives at the beginning of this season was definitely not normal. Westbrook isn’t a good shooter, so he needs to be looking to get to the rim and it appears he is now healthy enough to do so.
Bradley Beal isn’t priced quite as favorably as Westbrook, but he is a strong option as well. Beal has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute and 35.9 minutes per game with a 37.7 percent usage rate in the 11 games that he has played with Westbrook this season. It is worth noting that Beal has a 31 percent usage rate in the 72 minutes he has played alongside Westbrook since his return compared to a 34 percent usage rate alongside Westbrook prior to his injury. It is possible that a fully healthy Westbrook has more of a negative impact on Beal than the watered-down version of Westbrook did earlier in the season. Still, Scott Brooks staggers their minutes so Beal gets about 33 percent of his minutes without Westbrook on the floor.
Hachimura and Bertans both offer value at forward. Hachimura played 28.6 minutes against Brooklyn last game while Bertans played 30.2 minutes. Both players closed and we will probably see that be the case again tonight. Hachimura has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season while Bertans has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute.
The center position could be a sneaky spot to target in tournaments. Robin Lopez started and played 17.9 minutes while Moritz Wagner played 20.7 minutes off the bench against the Nets. The game closed small with the Wizards using Westbrook, Ish Smith/Garrison Mathews, Beal, Bertans and Hachimura. I think there is a good chance that Lopez and Wagner combine for close to 48 minutes tonight with one of them closing over Smith/Mathews against Enes Kanter. Both players are less than $4,000 on DraftKings and would project as strong values if they get 24 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9.100), Bradley Beal ($9,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($10,000), Bradley Beal ($10,800), Davis Bertans ($4,300), Rui Hachimura ($4,700)
The Pistons haven’t submitted an injury report yet, but they were at full strength other than Killian Hayes last night against the Nuggets. That game was postponed about 10 minutes before tip, so I don’t expect anything different tonight.
I have virtually no interest in this team for the same reasons as last night. They are close to fully healthy and they’re not particularly inexpensive. They also have a very difficult matchup tonight against Utah.
If you must roster someone from Detroit, Jerami Grant is the best combination of playing time, per-minute production and salary. Mason Plumlee and Derrick Rose both offer a fantasy point or more per minute as well, though Rose hasn’t played more than 20 minutes in four straight games so we would need to get lucky on his playing time. I expect to have less exposure to this team than any other team on the slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($7,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($6,800)
Utah faces one of the worst teams in the league in the Pistons. Detroit is in the bottom 10 in defensive rating this season but they are also bottom 10 in pace. This is likely to be a slow-paced game, but we have favorable pricing on the main pieces from Utah.
Donovan Mitchell struggled against the Nuggets in his first game back from a concussion, but he played 31.1 minutes and lost about three minutes to garbage time. We should expect about 34 minutes from Mitchell tonight if this game is competitive and, if it isn’t, there is a good chance that Mitchell had a big game. He has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate and 24.9 percent assist rate this season.
Rudy Gobert’s rotation was shortened against Denver with the return of Derrick Favors. Gobert only played 25.5 minutes and he has only averaged 29.8 minutes per game with Favors active this season. He has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute, however, and he shouldn’t have any trouble with Detroit’s Mason Plumlee-led frontcourt.
Mitchell and Gobert stand out as the top options, but we can also look to Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic in tournaments. Conley has only averaged 29.8 minutes per game in 18 games with Mitchell active this season, but he has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.9 percent usage rate and 30.6 percent assist rate. After looking like he was washed up for much of last season, Conley has bounced back and is a solid fantasy contributor this season. Clarkson has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and 24.8 minutes per game in 18 games with Mitchell this season. His playing time is volatile with Mitchell active, but that keeps his salary and ownership in check as well. If Clarkson is playing well, we can get 26 to 28 minutes tonight, with most of those minutes coming against an abysmal Detroit bench. Finally, Bogdanovic has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 29.7 minutes per game with Mitchell this season. He did lead the team with 32.6 minutes played against Denver on Sunday, however, and he will be underpriced if he returns to the consistent 33 to 35 minute role that we saw from him at times last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($7,600), Rudy Gobert ($7,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($7,800), Rudy Gobert ($9,100)
Marcus Smart is out tonight, along with Payton Pritchard and Romeo Langford. We could see any number of players replace Smart in the starting lineup as Brad Stevens tends to use a low-usage place holder as an injury fill in so that he doesn’t disrupt his rotations too much. My expectation is that Smart’s absence doesn’t make anyone a top option, but it could open the door for Jeff Teague to pick up a couple more minutes. Teague and Kemba Walker have played 14 minutes alongside each other this season.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the priorities here as they face a fast-paced Golden State team that has played faster than every team except for the Wizards this season. Tatum has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season while Brown has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in games with Tatum active this season. Brad Stevens typically staggers their minutes so they get plenty of time without the other one on the floor.
Walker has been productive this season with 1.14 DraftKings points per minute, but his minutes are restricted for the foreseeable future. He could certainly have a big game tonight in 28-30 minutes, but we can’t prioritize him knowing that he’s limited. He is a much better target on FanDuel than DraftKings, however, because FanDuel priced him for his current situation.
Daniel Theis started and played 34.5 minutes against the Lakers last game after playing 12 minutes in a start against San Antonio is Boston’s previous game. That sums up the range of outcomes for Theis. If he plays 34 minutes again then he will look like a good value, but there is no guarantee that he gets anywhere close to that tonight and he isn’t cheap enough for me to be interested if he only gets around 26 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,600), Jaylen Brown ($7,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Jaylen Brown ($8,700), Kemba Walker ($5,700)
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry is always the starting point for Golden State and he should benefit from Marcus Smart’s absence. Still, the Celtics have plenty of good defenders and the Warriors don’t have much else to take their focus off of Curry. Curry has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate and 29.8 percent assist rate in 33.8 minutes per game this season with Green active. He has a high ceiling in tournaments, but I would rather look to the guards from the Wizards and Blazers game if ownership is similar.
Wiggins and Oubre are secondary options at small forward, which is typically the most difficult position to fill. Wiggins has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute and 31.1 minutes per game since Green’s return while Oubre has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in 28.1 minutes per game.
Kevon Looney played 22.9 minutes last game and we should expect him to play around 22 to 24 minutes tonight with Wiseman sidelined. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a decent point-per-dollar value with limited upside. Paschall should benefit from Wiseman’s absence as he will probably be Golden State’s back-up center now. Paschall has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season and I prefer him to Looney since he has forward eligibility.
Green continues to be available at a very affordable price point. I don’t mind using Green as a “last man in” type play since he is so cheap and will play 30 to 32 minutes if this game is competitive, but keep in mind that he only has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 12.9 percent usage rate and 9 percent rebounding rate. For his career, Green has a 16.3 percent usage rate and 13.3 percent rebounding rate in 512 games played with Curry active, so his rates this season are concerning.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,600), Eric Paschall ($3,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9.400), Eric Paschall ($3,500)
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