This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
Note: We changed the format of the article to try and make it a little bit easier to digest. As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 10
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,000 SF FanDuel) takes on the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Doncic sat out of Dallas’s final game before the All-Star break, but he played in the All-Star game and isn’t on tonight’s injury report so he should be ready to go. Doncic is the highest projected scorer on tonight’s slate. He has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 36.3 minutes per game in 19 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active this season. His per-minute fantasy production is the highest available on this slate by a wide margin. He is more valuable on FanDuel than DraftKings since we can roster him at small forward, but he is a top option regardless of site.
Russell Westbrook ($10,100 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) takes on the Grizzlies in the most appealing game on tonight’s slate. Westbrook may not be a great NBA player at this stage of his career, but he is still a top-end fantasy contributor. He has played 26 games with Bradley Beal active this season and he has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute and 34.2 minutes per game in those games. He has a 31 percent usage rate, 15.3 percent rebounding rate and 45.3 percent assist rate. His ability to contribute rebounds and assists is valuable since he is likely to produce at a high rate even when he shoots poorly (which is often). Westbrook has also dealt with some nagging injuries this season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he plays at a higher level than now that he is rested. His playing style is better suited for DraftKings than FanDuel, but he is a top projected option on all sites.
Ja Morant ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) stands out as the top mid-range point guard option in tonight’s matchup against Washington. The Wizards have played better defense recently, ranking 11th in defensive rating over the last month, but they have still played at the league’s fastest pace over that time. Even if we believe they are suddenly an above average team defensively, the pace makes it a favorable matchup for DFS, and it’s likely that they don’t maintain their standing as a relatively strong defensive team. Morant will most likely play 32 or 33 minutes tonight if the game is competitive, but he did approach 39 minutes in the Grizzlies’ final game before the All-Star break so there is upside for more. He has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 16 games played with both of Jonas Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks active this season.
Dejounte Murray ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) has a similar ceiling to Morant but he doesn’t project as well. First, the Spurs’ game is likely to be lower scoring than the Grizzlies’ game. Second, the Spurs are at close to full strength for the first time in weeks. That means that it will be easier for Coach Popovich to keep Murray at 30 to 32 minutes and also that he will most likely be sharing the floor with both of DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White for periods of time- which decreases his expected production. Murray is a fine option in tournaments since there are only two games to choose from on this slate, but he clearly ranks behind Morant in terms of projection and likelihood of success.
Jalen Brunson ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) will most likely come off the bench for the Mavericks tonight, but there is a good chance he still plays 26 to 28 minutes. He has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and 26.4 minutes per game in 16 games played with both of Doncic and Porzingis active this season. His salary isn’t particularly appealing and he doesn’t stand out as a top option on the slate, but he is a viable last piece in as long as you’re happy with the rest of your lineup.
Derrick White ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is an intriguing value option because he has a wide range of outcomes at a relatively inexpensive salary. White missed the Spurs’ final five games before the All-Star break because of COVID protocols, so we don’t know if he will be limited tonight and how much he will be limited. White has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and 24.7 minutes per game in eight games played alongside DeRozan and Murray this season and, if we get that playing time and production, he is likely to be a strong play at his salary. It wouldn’t be surprising, however, if he plays 20 minutes and it wouldn’t be shocking if he played 27 or 28 minutes either. White looks like one of the better values tonight because of the combination of median projection and room for upside, but he doesn’t come without risk since we don’t really know what San Antonio’s rotation is going to look like or how White’s conditioning will hold up.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,700), Russell Westbrook ($10,100), Ja Morant ($7,800), Derrick White ($5,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,800), Ja Morant ($8,000), Jalen Brunson ($5,400)
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Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) has played 26 games alongside Westbrook this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute and 35.7 minutes per game. He has a 35.4 percent usage rate, but his peripherals are limited since Westbrook dominates rebounds and assists. While he is a relatively scoring-dependent player, Beal still is one of the top options on the slate since he has one of the highest usage rates in the league.
Dillon Brooks ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is a streaky fantasy producer because he is scoring-dependent and an inconsistent shooter. He comes with a high ceiling for his price tag, however, since his inconsistency keeps his salary down. Brooks has averaged 30.4 minutes per game in 16 games alongside Valanciunas and Morant this season and he has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Brooks leads Memphis with 5.8 3-point attempts per game this season and the Wizards have allowed the 10th-most 3-point attempts per game over the last month.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) isn’t a particularly appealing option, but our choices among value plays aren’t too strong tonight. Hardaway only played 22.6 minutes off the bench in Dallas’s last game with Doncic active, but he has a path to 27 or 28 minutes if he plays well. Overall, he has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute and 29.4 minutes per game in 18 games played with Doncic and Porzingis this season.
Patty Mills ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is likely to lose a few minutes of playing time now that the Spurs are close to full strength. In games with DeRozan, Murray and White all active this season, Mills has averaged 24.8 minutes per game and 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. The reason that I’m mentioning Mills is his FanDuel salary specifically because he is more valuable there than on DraftKings. The shooting guard position isn’t very deep and Mills is close to minimum salary, so he is an option as long as the savings allow you to maximize your upside at other positions.
Desmond Bane ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is basically the same play as Mills, just for $500 less. Bane isn’t an exciting option to roster and he isn’t a safe option. He has started five games with Morant, Brooks and Valanciunas active this season and he has averaged 24 minutes per game with 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He has plenty of competition for playing time and he is unlikely to be in the closing lineup because Brandon Clarke or De’Anthony Melton will probably replace him. Still, the savings are what is important since we want to be able to pay up for top options at other positions.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($9,400), Dillon Brooks ($5,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($10,500), Dillon Brooks ($5,600), Desmond Bane ($3,500)
Small Forward
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,600 SG FanDuel) is similar to Dejounte Murray. He is one of the best fantasy options on the Spurs and he is certainly capable of having a big game regardless of who else on his team is active, but his chances of success decrease since LaMarcus Aldridge and White are returning to action. His salary has also increased because the Spurs were short-handed for an extended period of time. DeRozan has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 33.8 minutes per game in 46 games with Aldridge, Murray and White all active since the start of last season.
Kyle Anderson ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) gets a favorable matchup against the Wizards but it is difficult to get to him at his price point. His playing time is volatile because he is susceptible to losing minutes to a number of players, most notably Clarke, and it can be difficult to count on his production since he is the fourth or fifth scoring option in the starting lineup. The good news for Anderson is that he has contributed plenty in the way of peripherals this season. In 15 games played with Morant, Brooks and Valanciunas active, Anderson has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.8 percent usage rate, 11.7 percent rebounding rate and 17 percent assist rate. Clarke was active for 11 of those games and Anderson’s per-minute production and rates remained similar. He is a volatile option with a relatively low floor and a high ceiling for his salary. It will be tough to allocate salary to him in “optimal builds” but that means he could be a useful contrarian piece in larger field tournaments.
Keldon Johnson ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) is another Spurs player that is difficult to project with confidence. That means that he has a low floor but also a high ceiling since it expands his range of outcomes. For the season, Johnson has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and 29.1 minutes per game. The reason that he is difficult to project with confidence is that he missed several games due to COVID protocols prior to the All-Star break. He played 11 and then 22 minutes off the bench in San Antonio’s final two games before the break. My assumption for now is that Johnson will be good to go and we can expect him to approach his season average in minutes per game, but I will feel much better about that assumption if he is in the starting lineup. If he remains on the bench, I think there is a good chance that we only get 22 to 24 minutes which would obviously make him much less appealing. For now, though, I think he looks like one of the better small forward options assuming he starts.
Josh Richardson ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) has averaged 30.1 minutes per game in 12 games played with Doncic and Porzingis this season. While the playing time is appealing for his salary, the per-minute production is not. Richardson has averaged only 0.76 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.0 percent usage rate, 5.2 percent rebounding rate and 15.8 percent assist rate. It’s difficult to trust Richardson’s production since he isn’t a top scorer, rebounder or playmaker on this Dallas team when everyone is healthy. He should get enough minutes to make him a viable last piece in, but his lack of consistent production keeps him from being a priority.
Justise Winslow ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) looks like one of the most appealing value options on DraftKings in particular. Winslow’s playing time is still inconsistent as he has several players that he has to compete with for minutes, but we are typically getting 20 to 24 minutes a night. Winslow has been involved when he is on the floor, averaging 0.89 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.7 percent usage rate, 12.6 percent rebounding rate and 9.5 percent assist rate. He has shot extremely poorly from the field, which could be attributed to rust and is something that should improve as he gets more playing time. It’s difficult to find anyone that is as involved offensively as Winslow in this price range, so I like using him as a value option and hoping that we get 24 minutes from him in a favorable matchup against Washington.
Deni Avdija ($3,100 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is about as cheap as you can find on DraftKings tonight. Avdija’s minutes have been inconsistent this season and I expect that to continue to be the case going forward. He has played at least 20 minutes in four of his last five games, however, including 26 minutes and 25 minutes in Washington’s last two games before the break. Avdija has averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute and 19..5 minutes per game overall in 23 games played with Westbrook and Beal this season. He definitely isn’t someone that we should feel good about rostering, but he offers more potential playing time than most similarly priced players on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Keldon Johnson ($5,100 if starting), Justise Winslow ($3,900), Deni Avdija ($3,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,000), Keldon Johnson ($5,800 if starting), Rui Hachimura ($5,000)
Power Forward
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) stands out as the clear top projected option at power forward tonight. Porzingis has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 29.9 minutes per game in his 19 games played with Doncic this season. We can expect 31-plus minutes from Porzingis tonight if the game is competitive. He has a 27.7 percent usage rate and 14.8 percent rebounding rate in his games with Doncic this season and he offers shot-blocking upside as well.
Rui Hachimura ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,000 SF FanDuel) has been very disappointing recently in terms of fantasy production, but the playing time should be there. He has averaged 30.2 minutes per game in 21 games played with Beal and Westbrook this season, but only 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. His most recent game was the first time in four games that he had exceeded 30 minutes of action but, prior to that, he had played at least 35 minutes in five of his last six. On most slates, we could look beyond Hachimura but he grades out as a relatively strong value tonight given the lack of other options. One minor note is that he closed at center against the Grizzlies the last time these teams played, though I’m not confident that will be the case again tonight.
Brandon Clarke ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is a strong value on DraftKings tonight against a fast-paced Wizards’ team that doesn’t rebound well. Clarke has played 11 games with all four of Morant, Valanciunas, Brooks and Anderson active this season and he has averaged 23.2 minutes per game in those games. He has also averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute, however, which means that he has a relatively high ceiling since we would expect him to easily pay off his salary if he gets more minutes than normal. Clarke played two stints as the back-up center without Valanciunas on the floor in Memphis’s most recent game and, if that trend continues, it will lead to more minutes and better per-minute production from Clarke.
Davis Bertans ($4,400 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) is another option that looks much more appealing on DraftKings than FanDuel- partly because of price and partly because DraftKings’ scoring rewards 3-pointers. Bertans has played at least 26 minutes in three straight games and eight of his last 10. He is a volatile option from a production standpoint because he is a scoring-dependent player who doesn’t have a high usage rate. He needs to be efficient from 3 in order to produce fantasy points and it’s risky to rely on that skillset. Given his inexpensive price tag, however, he looks like one of the stronger point-per-dollar value options. He has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 23 games played with Beal and Westbrook this season and I expect that number to increase going forward because Bertans hasn’t shot as well so far this season and he normally does.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600), Brandon Clarke ($5,200), Davis Bertans ($4,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300), Brandon Clarke ($6,200), Davis Bertans ($5,200)
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is the No. 1 center option by an extremely wide margin tonight. The position is about as thin as it possibly could be and Valanciunas has a great matchup against the Wizards. One result of the Wizards’ improved defensive efficiency recently is a greater number of missed shots from opponents. Over the last month, the Wizards have allowed the second-most offensive rebounds per game. Valanciunas’ 3.4 offensive rebounds per game ranks sixth in the NBA and he is ninth with 11.3 total rebounds per game. Washington has allowed the sixth-most total rebounds per game over the last month. Overall this season, Valanciunas has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 27.9 minutes per game in 16 games played with Morant and Brooks active.
Jakob Poeltl ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) has started three games with Aldridge active this season. He has averaged 32.3 minutes per game and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in those games. We don’t know yet if he will start tonight but, if he does, there is a good chance that he gives us about 30 minutes. The problem is that his playing time is volatile since Aldridge, Rudy Gay and Trey Lyles are all available to steal minutes at center depending on the Spurs’ unpredictable rotation. If Poeltl were further away from Valanciunas in salary he would be more interesting but, as is, it’s very difficult for me to make an argument in favor of Poeltl unless there is no way to find the extra money for Valanciunas.
Moritz Wagner ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,000 PF FanDuel), Robin Lopez ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) and Alex Len ($3,100 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) make up an extremely inconsistent center rotation for the Wizards. Given the lack of center options tonight, it is a reasonable idea to look to this trio for value- just keep in mind that all three are risky because the center rotation changes from game to game. Wagner has averaged 15.8 minutes per game and 1.1 DraftKings points per minute in 11 starts this season. The concern for Wagner is that Scott Brooks has had a tendency to take minutes from him and give them to a combination of Lopez and Len in games against bigger, high-usage centers like Jonas Valanciunas. Wagner played about 11 first half minutes against Memphis when these teams played earlier this month, but he didn’t play at all in the second half. Lopez has averaged 21.7 minutes per game and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played with Wagner and Len both active this season. Lopez started the second half against Memphis in their last meeting but only played a total of 13.9 minutes. Len led the Wizards with 19.2 minutes the last time they faced Memphis. Len came off the bench ahead of Lopez in the first half and then played more minutes in the second half despite Lopez starting the half. In Washington’s next game, Len never stepped on the floor- reinforcing the point that all three of these options are risky. Len has averaged 12.3 minutes per game and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season.
To try and summarize the Wizards’ center rotation, I think that Wagner will start but it is likely that we see a three-center rotation because the matchup suits Lopez and Len. Wagner and Len are the best per-minute producers, while Lopez averages the most minutes per game out of the group.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000)
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