NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 16

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) picked up another triple-double on Wednesday, giving him a triple-double in six straight games. Westbrook has averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in 39 games played with Bradley Beal this season and 1.66 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played with Beal since the All-Star break. Westbrook’s 37.1 minutes per game over the last month ranks third in the NBA and he has a favorable matchup against a fast-paced Pelicans team.

Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Knicks, who are 26th in pace and second in defensive rating over the last month. Doncic has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute and 35.8 minutes per game in 33 games played alongside Kristaps Porzingis this season. He always has one of the highest ceilings on a slate, and tonight is no different, but the matchup pushes him below other pay-up options like Westbrook.

Terry Rozier ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) will need to be Charlotte’s entire offense tonight as Gordon Hayward, Devonte’ Graham, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are all sidelined and P.J. Washington is listed as doubtful. Rozier has played a total of 106 minutes without Hayward, Graham, Ball or Monk on the floor this season and has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.5 percent usage rate and 20.4 percent assist rate. Rozier is likely to play 35-plus minutes tonight and stands out as an especially strong value on FanDuel.

Dejounte Murray ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) takes on the Portland Trail Blazers, who have allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions over the last month. They are in the middle of the pack in pace over that time, so it sets up as a favorable matchup for Murray and the Spurs. Murray has played 21 games without LaMarcus Aldridge and with DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White active this season. In those games, Murray has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and 32.5 minutes per game with 16.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists.

Malachi Flynn ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has played very well for the short-handed Raptors recently and he should see substantial playing time again tonight. Fred VanVleet served his suspension on Wednesday and is no longer on the injury report, but Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby will all be out tonight. In addition, Gary Trent Jr. and DeAndre’ Bembry are listed as doubtful. Flynn played 32.2 minutes against San Antonio on Wednesday and he has now averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and 35.5 minutes per game in his four starts this season.

Cole Anthony ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) only played 20.9 minutes against the Bulls on Wednesday but Michael Carter-Williams is out tonight so Anthony should see increased playing time. He played every minute that Carter-Williams wasn’t on the floor last game, and he should replace Carter-Williams in the starting lineup. In 242 minutes without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon or Evan Fournier on the floor this season, Anthony has produced 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.9 percent usage rate and 33.3 percent assist rate.

Coby White ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) only played 12 minutes last game, but Zach LaVine is out for the next couple of weeks so White is likely to see increased playing time. Chicago’s rotation is crowded with Tomas Satoransky, Garrett Temple, Denzel Valentine, Troy Brown and White all getting minutes, but LaVine’s absence opens up 34-plus minutes per game. White has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute without LaVine on the floor this season and he is likely to play at least 25 or 26 minutes tonight against Memphis.

Monte Morris ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) started in place of Jamal Murray on Wednesday and played between 25 and 26 minutes. He lost a few minutes to garbage time at the end of the game so, if Denver uses the same rotation tonight, Morris will play 28 to 30 minutes as long as the game is competitive. Morris has started four games without Murray this season and has averaged 30.3 minutes per game and 0.88 DraftKings points per minute. He has an excellent matchup against the Rockets and is especially cheap on DraftKings.

Brad Wanamaker ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) is questionable tonight. If he is able to play, there should be plenty of minutes available for him tonight. In six games without Hayward or Ball since joining the Hornets, Wanamaker has averaged 22.6 minutes per game and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. Wannamaker should play at least 26 minutes.

Killian Hayes ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) played 25 minutes off the bench for Detroit in their last game. Tonight, the Pistons will be without Cory Joseph, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Dennis Smith Jr., Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee so there are plenty of minutes available for Hayes. It remains to be seen whether or not he starts, but he will likely play another 25 or 26 minutes. He has struggled overall this season, but he has produced 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 76 minutes played without Grant, Plumlee, Blake Griffin or Derrick Rose.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Malachi Flynn, Cole Anthony, Monte Morris, Brad Wanamaker (Q), Killian Hayes

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Terry Rozier, Malachi Flynn, Cole Anthony, Brad Wanamaker (Q), Killian Hayes

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Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) has played 36 minutes in back to back games, so it appears safe to assume that he is no longer limited by his hip injury. He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.2 percent usage rate and 35.2 minutes per game in 39 games played with Westbrook this season. He has struggled since the All-Star break, averaging only 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.6 percent usage rate. His salary reflects his recent struggles, however, and Beal’s production should return to pre-All Star break levels as he gets healthier.

Fred VanVleet ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is expected to return to the lineup tonight and he will need to take on a large workload offensively. VanVleet has played 239 minutes without Lowry or Siakam on the floor this season and has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.0 percent usage rate and 32.6 percent assist rate. If we also remove Norman Powell from the floor, VanVleet has a 37.5 percent usage rate and 40.4 percent assist rate over 113 minutes. He is relatively inexpensive against a weak Orlando team and he will be the first, second and third option offensively for Toronto tonight.

Josh Jackson ($5,300 PF DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is a power forward for some reason on DraftKings but he is a shooting guard on FanDuel. Jackson’s playing time is always a question mark, but it should be more secure tonight since the Pistons are missing so many players from their rotation. He has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.6 percent usage rate, 10.2 percent rebounding rate and 18.5 percent assist rate in 263 minutes without Griffin, Rose, Plumlee or Grant on the floor this season. There is some risk that he still manages to only play 20 to 24 minutes, but it’s more likely that Jackson will play least 27 or 28 minutes.

Caleb Martin ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,500 SF FanDuel) joined Charlotte’s starting lineup two games ago when Rozier was sidelined and that should be the case again tonight with Devonte’ Graham sitting out. Martin played 35.1 minutes in that start and then played 23.3 minutes off the bench last game so he has firmly been ahead of his brother in the rotation. Martin has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a strong point-per-dollar value if he returns to the starting lineup tonight.

Rodney Hood ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) has averaged only 0.58 DraftKings points per minute in eight games with the Raptors this season. Prior to joining Toronto, Hood had averaged 0.53 DraftKings points per minute in 38 games played with the Blazers. This is not someone that makes us feel confident in his production, but there should be plenty of minutes available for him tonight against Orlando.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet, Caleb Martin

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet, Josh Jackson

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Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) faces the Minnesota Timberwolves in one of the most appealing DFS matchups possible. The ‘Wolves are fourth in pace and 29th in defensive rating over the last month. Miami will be without Victor Oladipo tonight, which opens up additional usage for Butler. Butler has produced 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.7 percent usage rate, 12.6 percent rebounding rate and 35.1 percent assist rate in 32 games played without Oladipo and with Bam Adebayo this season.

Brandon Ingram ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) is at a price point that is difficult to prioritize, but he does have an excellent matchup against the Wizards. Washington has improved defensively recently, ranking 14th in defensive rating over the last month, but they still have played at the league’s fastest pace. Ingram has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute and 34.2 minutes per game in 37 games played with Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball active this season.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) should benefit from a favorable matchup against the Blazers tonight. DeRozan has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 21 games played without Aldridge and alongside Murray and White this season. Portland is likely to allow DeRozan to produce at an above-average rate tonight.

Michael Porter Jr. ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is already relatively expensive with Murray out, but he does get a fast-paced Houston team that struggles defensively. Porter has started seven games without Murray this season and he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game. He has a 22.4 percent usage rate in those games compared to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.5 percent usage rate in 31 starts alongside Murray.

Miles Bridges ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) isn’t the most exciting fantasy producer regardless of who he shares the floor with. In 175 minutes without Hayward, Graham or Ball on the floor this season, Bridges has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with a 16.0 percent usage rate, 10.4 percent rebounding rate and 12.9 percent assist rate. While the per-minute production isn’t the most exciting, it is still valuable when combined with Bridges’ expected playing time tonight. Bridges has averaged 36.4 minutes per game in his six games without Hayward and Ball this season.

Aaron Gordon ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,300 PF FanDuel) only played 26.5 minutes in his last game, despite Murray’s absence. He lost a couple of minutes to garbage time, but his rotation was still underwhelming. He is inexpensive enough, however, that there is much more upside than downside tonight against Houston. Gordon has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and 27.8 minutes per game in 10 games with Denver. Five of those games have been without Murray and he has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and 27.1 minutes per game. Gordon is capable of filling multiple roles offensively, however, as he is a capable scorer and playmaker. The presence of Nikola Jokic means that those roles are filled even though Denver is without their starting point guard, but Gordon could still take on a bigger role than normal in any given game. Basically, Gordon’s average production makes him a reasonable value option at his current price tag and Murray’s absence likely increases his ceiling even if it doesn’t alter his median production.

Luguentz Dort ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) isn’t a name that associated with offensive upside, but he has been a strong fantasy producer without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season. He may never score 42 actual points in a game again, but he has a 27.5 percent usage rate in 11 games played without Gilgeous-Alexander this season. He has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over those games. The Thunder will be facing a short-handed Detroit team tonight and the Boom/Bust tool suggests that Dort may go overlooked in tournaments because there are so many alternatives to choose from tonight.

Saddiq Bey ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) played 35.3 minutes in Detroit’s last game and he should get similar run tonight with several key rotation players sitting out. Bey is one of the few players on the Pistons who’s playing time is trustworthy because he is a first-round pick that they are looking to develop. Bey has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 235 minutes without Grant, Plumlee, Rose or Griffin on the floor this season.

Hamidou Diallo ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,100 SG FanDuel) is also likely to benefit from the Pistons’ rest/tanking situation tonight. Diallo has surprisingly not been a bigger priority in Detroit’s rotations recently, but he will most likely see additional minutes tonight with Joseph sidelined. Diallo has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in 10 games with the Pistons and 1 DraftKings point per minute overall this season including his time in Oklahoma City.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Luguentz Dort, Saddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler, Michael Porter Jr., Luguentz Dort, Saddiq Bey

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Power Forward

Zion Williamson ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is extremely expensive, but he has also taken his game to another level lately and he has a favorable matchup against the Wizards. Williamson has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.9 percent usage rate, 11.8 percent rebounding rate and 18.0 percent assist rate in 32.6 minutes per game in 37 total games played with Ingram and Ball this season. In 13 games played over the last month, Williamson has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.9 percent usage rate, 12.6 percent rebounding rate and 27.6 percent assist rate in 33.8 minutes per game. While Ball has been out for a lot of those games, it can’t all be attributed to his absence. Williamson’s assist numbers start to increase prior to Ball’s injury and he had been more aggressive offensively as well. He doesn’t look like a priority tonight, but he is an interesting option to look to in tournaments.

Kevin Durant ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,300 SF FanDuel) rested in Brooklyn’s last game but he is expected to return to action tonight against Charlotte. James Harden is out tonight for Brooklyn, so even more of the offense will run through Durant. Durant has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.0 percent usage rate, 11.4 percent rebounding rate and 26.3 percent assist rate in nine games played without Harden and with Kyrie Irving this season. The only question is how many minutes Durant will play tonight as he has been limited since returning from injury. He played 27.2 minutes against Minnesota in his last game, however. That game was a blowout so Durant missed his normal fourth quarter run, but Brooklyn brought him back into the game earlier than normal. He would not have played a lot more minutes had the game been competitive, but it is a good sign that Brooklyn essentially went out of their way to make sure Durant played about 27 minutes. It would be surprising if he plays less than that tonight and there is a chance that he picks up a few extra minutes.

Darius Bazley ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has averaged 33.6 minutes per game and 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Gilgeous-Alexander this season. Bazley played 28.3 minutes against Golden State last game and most likely lost a few minutes to garbage time. If tonight’s game is competitive, Bazley should play 30-ish minutes.

Jalen McDaniels ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has averaged 29.7 minutes per game and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in six starts this season. He will most likely start again tonight and he should play 30 to 32 minutes again against Brooklyn. His salary has increased, making him a riskier option with more downside than he had in the past, but he still projects as a strong point-per-dollar option based on his performance as a starter so far.

Isaiah Roby ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) played 28.3 minutes against Golden State last game and he should get about 30 minutes again tonight. Roby has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and 27.9 minutes per game in 25 starts this season. He is an especially strong value on FanDuel.

Brandon Clarke ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Bulls. Clarke’s playing time is capped by Jonas Valanciunas, but his price point is a little too low for his production if he plays 22 to 24 minutes tonight. Clarke has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 23 minutes per game in 29 games played off the bench with Valanciunas active this season.

Lauri Markkanen ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) has clearly fallen out of favor in Chicago as he has played fewer than 20 minutes in four out of his last five games. There is the potential for increased playing time tonight with LaVine out, though there are plenty of other ways that the rotation could go as well. Markkanen has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute without LaVine on the floor this season and he offers some upside as a risky dart throw in tournaments hoping that Billy Donovan elects to replace some of LaVine’s minutes by playing bigger lineups.

Trevor Ariza ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) has averaged 27.2 minutes per game and 0.69 DraftKings points per minute in 11 starts with Miami this season. The per-minute production isn’t exciting, but he does have a strong matchup against Minnesota. Andre Iguodala is questionable tonight and, if he sits, it would most likely increase Ariza’s playing time as well.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, Darius Bazley, Josh Jackson, Isaiah Roby

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Darius Bazley, Isaiah Roby, Isaiah Stewart, Khem Birch, Daniel Theis

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) stands out as one of the top options on the slate as he takes on the Houston Rockets without Murray. Jokic has averaged 1.83 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.6 percent usage rate, 16.1 percent rebounding rate and 55.8 percent assist rate in seven games without Murray this season. While the assist rate is likely to decrease, it is backed up by a big spike in potential assists per 36 minutes for Jokic in the games that he has played without Murray so Jokic should continue to get more assists than he was with Murray active.

Joel Embiid ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) offers immense upside and is a viable pivot to Jokic in tournaments since he has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season and is clearly capable of outscoring Jokic in any given game. That said, it is nearly impossible to prioritize Embiid over Jokic because he has a more difficult matchup and is playing on a mostly healthy Philadelphia team. Tobias Harris and Dwight Howard are questionable and Embiid would benefit somewhat if either of them are out (more usage is available without Harris and more minutes are available without Howard) but neither of them would move the needle enough to vault Embiid ahead of Jokic.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is likely to see an uptick in his usage and assist rates with LaVine sidelined. Vucevic is more than capable of picking up the slack as a playmaker when a primary ball-handler is sidelined. He has played 106 minutes without LaVine on the floor since joining Chicago and has averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.7 percent usage rate, 20.6 percent rebounding rate and 14.7 percent assist rate. Vucevic has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in his 351 minutes alongside LaVine for comparison.

Bam Adebayo ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) has produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.7 percent usage rate, 16.0 percent rebounding rate and 24.5 percent assist rate in 32 games played alongside Butler without Oladipo this season. He has averaged 33.7 minutes per game in those games and could see a couple of extra minutes tonight in order to match Karl-Anthony Towns’ minutes. The center position is stacked at the top and at the bottom tonight, which will make it difficult to prioritize Adebayo, but it should also keep his ownership down in tournaments.

Chris Boucher ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) started alongside Khem Birch and played 33.5 minutes in Toronto’s last game. The Raptors should use the same starting frontcourt tonight with Siakam out and Trent doubtful. Boucher has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.

Wendell Carter ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has produced at a high level since joining the Magic. In 10 games with Orlando, Carter has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and 27.6 minutes per game. He played about 31 minutes in his last game, and he should get 30-ish minutes in most games going forward.

Isaiah Stewart ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,800 PF FanDuel) has started four games for the Pistons this season. In those games, he has averaged 27 minutes per game and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. Tonight’s game against the Thunder is likely to be an awful basketball game to watch, but there should be plenty of fantasy points available in this matchup between two of the worst teams in the league.

Khem Birch ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,000 PF FanDuel) started and played 29.1 minutes in Toronto’s last game. Assuming he starts again tonight, he should play a similar number of minutes against Orlando. Birch has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in 51 total games this season, including his time on the Magic, and 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in three games with Toronto.

Daniel Theis ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,000 PF FanDuel) has averaged 23 minutes per game in nine games played alongside Vucevic since joining the Bulls. He has been Vucevic’s back-up but Chicago has also used the two alongside each other. Theis has produced 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in those games and he is still priced as if he is only going to be used when Vucevic isn’t on the floor. There is risk here since the Bulls could potentially change up their rotations at any time but, based on how Theis has been utilized so far, he offers value despite coming off the bench.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Chris Boucher, Isaiah Stewart, Khem Birch, Daniel Theis

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Chris Boucher, Wendell Carter

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].