The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Friday, 5/28

This is Awesemo’s primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 31

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) is questionable tonight, but he is expected to play. Westbrook played through his ankle injury in Game 3 and had his best fantasy performance of the series with a triple-double in 34.2 minutes. He missed the final six minutes of the game because it was a blowout, so we shouldn’t expect him to be limited tonight if he is able to play. Westbrook has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in the first three games of this series, but we know that he has the potential to do much more. He will be the highest projected player on the slate, but with only two games, it may not be optimal to pay up for him when there is a lack of value and a strong mid-range.

Ja Morant ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is overpriced on DraftKings relative to the other point guard options, but he is more reasonably priced on FanDuel. He is still worth tournament consideration on DraftKings as well since the elevated salary is likely to keep his ownership down. Morant has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 39.7 minutes per game through the first three games of the series.

Ben Simmons ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute through the first three games of this series. He has only averaged 32.3 minutes per game, but that is a result of blowouts. If tonight’s game is competitive, we can expect Simmons to play at least 37 or 38 minutes. Overall this season, Simmons averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute, but we can expect him to continue producing at an above-average rate in an excellent matchup against the Wizards. The Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projection model has him pegged for 40.02 fantasy points tonight.

Mike Conley ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) stands out as a strong value on DraftKings while he is more appropriately priced on FanDuel. Conley has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute and 35.3 minutes per game so far in this series. While the per-minute production is excellent, we should expect that to decrease at least somewhat going forward as Conley only averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 42 games played alongside Donovan Mitchell this season. The increased playing time is likely to continue, however, and it is a substantial uptick from the 29.7 minutes per game that Conley averaged in his games alongside Mitchell during the regular season.

Top DraftKings Picks: Ben Simmons, Mike Conley

Top FanDuel Picks: Ben Simmons, Ja Morant

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Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,100 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) will need to have a monster game if the Wizards are going to have any chance at extending this series. He had success against Philadelphia’s strong defense during the regular season and he has produced at a relatively high rate in the postseason as well with 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. If this game is competitive, we can expect 40-plus minutes from Beal. Despite having the third-highest salary on the slate on DraftKings, Beal is still a Top-5 value play, according to the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) played about 26 minutes in his first game back from injury and followed it up with 29.8 minutes last game. There is volatility in his playing time since we don’t know exactly how many minutes he will be allowed to play, but my guess is that we can get 32 or 33 minutes tonight against Memphis. Mitchell has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in his first two games of this series and he averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.

Dillon Brooks ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is difficult to trust because he is a scoring dependent player in a difficult matchup. He is likely to play a lot of minutes, however, as long as he can avoid foul trouble because the Grizzlies need his defense on the floor. Brooks played about 36 minutes in the first game of the series and has played 28 and 22 minutes in the two most recent games due to foul trouble. He has also taken 26, 14 and 24 shots in the three games of the series. Brooks averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.2 percent usage rate in the regular season. So far in this series, he has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate.

Seth Curry ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) stands out as one of the best point-per-dollar values tonight. He was questionable to play last game but was able to suit up and play 27.3 minutes in three quarters of the 76ers’ blowout win. If tonight’s game is competitive, we can expect at least 30 to 32 minutes from Curry. He should get plenty of open looks against a weak Wizards’ defense and he is an excellent shooter who can take advantage. Curry averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in the first three games of this series.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/31/2021″ team=”wizards”]

Top DraftKings Picks: Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell, Seth Curry

Top FanDuel Picks: Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell, Seth Curry

Small Forward

Kyle Anderson ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) isn’t a particularly appealing option tonight, but the small forward position is extremely weak. Anderson played 32.1 minutes in Game 3 and has averaged 33 minutes per game in this series. He has also averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, which is in line with the 1.07 DraftKings points per minute that he averaged in 69 total games played this season. He is a risky option, but he contributes in every statistical category and is one of the top options at his position, per the daily fantasy basketball projections.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is a scoring dependent player but he is reasonably priced tonight. Through the first three games of the series, Bogdanovic has averaged 33.3 minutes per game. He played 37 minutes on Saturday, so there is a chance he plays more than his series average again. Bogdanovic has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.5 percent usage rate in the games that Mitchell has played in this series after averaging 0.80 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.1 percent usage rate in 53 games played with Mitchell during the regular season

Danny Green ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) doesn’t inspire much confidence when he ends up in your lineup, but he offers value at a very weak position tonight. The 76ers have the best matchup on the board against a fast-paced Washington team that doesn’t defend well, and Green should get plenty of open looks from 3. He is likely to play 30 to 32 minutes if the game is competitive. Green averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and he has produced 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in this series.

Top DraftKings Picks: Kyle Anderson, Danny Green

Top FanDuel Picks: Bojan Bogdanovic, Rui Hachimura, Danny Green

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Power Forward

Tobias Harris ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) has a 29.7 percent usage rate through the first three games of the series and he has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute. The usage rate is inflated because he shot 29 times in Game 1, and 19 of those field goal attempts came with Joel Embiid on the bench. Still, this is a strong matchup for Harris, and he is likely to play 37 or 38 minutes if it is competitive. Harris averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 37 games alongside Embiid and Simmons during the regular season and his salary is inexpensive enough that even his average production would justify his price if he plays all four quarters.

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) comes with plenty of foul risk but he is also a talented player at an inexpensive price tag. He has struggled so far in this series, producing only 0.86 DraftKings points per minute, but he averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, so we know the potential for more is there. He has a low floor and a high ceiling for his salary.

Royce O’Neale ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is another inexpensive player who produces fantasy points at a relatively low rate but is likely to play enough minutes to pay off his salary. O’Neale has averaged 34 minutes per game through the first three games of the series with 0.68 DraftKings points per minute. During the regular season, O’Neale averaged 0.69 DraftKings points per minute in 52 games played alongside Mitchell.

Rui Hachimura ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,600 SF FanDuel) has produced an abysmal 0.65 DraftKings points per minute during this series. He also was bad for most of the regular season, averaging 0.75 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games played with Westbrook and Beal active. We can’t be confident in Hachimura’s production, but we can expect him to play around 36 minutes if the Wizards are able to keep the game competitive. On a two-game slate with limited value, that is enough to make Hachimura an appealing option.

Davis Bertans ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is quickly becoming my least favorite player in the history of the NBA, but he still deserves a look tonight in DFS because of his salary. Bertans replaced Raul Neto in the starting lineup of Game 3 and played 31 minutes. He somehow still only produced 10 DraftKings points and he has now averaged 0.46 DraftKings points per minute through the first three games of this series. Bertans is allergic to rebounding, assists and defense, but he does occasionally make 3-pointers. The Wizards really need him to step up and do his job, so there is merit to rostering him at close to minimum salary and hoping he figures it out. If his shot is falling, he will get a lot of shots. He just hasn’t gotten into a rhythm for most of the season. His floor is extremely low, but he is someone who is capable of knocking down seven or eight 3’s in a game even though he hasn’t shown that ability lately.

Top DraftKings Picks: Tobias Harris, Jaren Jackson, Rui Hachimura

Top FanDuel Picks: Tobias Harris, Jaren Jackson, Royce O’Neale

Center

Joel Embiid ($9,500 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) has dominated the Wizards’ frontcourt so far this series, which is not surprising. He has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.3 percent usage rate. The only issue for Embiid is that he has averaged just 28 minutes per game. He was in early foul trouble in the first game and the second and third games were blowouts. This has seemingly caused his salary to drop, particularly on DraftKings. If tonight’s game is competitive, there is no reason to think we won’t get 34 to 36 minutes from Embiid. Right now, Embiid is slotted as the No. 2 overall player in fantasy points tonight in the daily fantasy basketball projections. He is likely to break the slate open if he gets his full minutes in this matchup.

Rudy Gobert ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) was in foul trouble in the first game of the series but has played about 36 minutes in each of the last two games. Gobert averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and has contributed 1.33 DraftKings points per minute so far in the playoffs. He stands out as one of the top mid-range options tonight.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is a natural tournament pivot to Gobert, assuming that Gobert is getting more ownership. Valanciunas has a difficult matchup and has only averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in this series. There is reason for optimism, however. Valanciunas has averaged 34.7 minutes per game in the series, despite dealing with foul trouble in Game 2, which is about five minutes more than he averaged during the regular season. He also has had some success against Gobert in the past and isn’t the type of center that I expect to struggle with Gobert too much from a fantasy standpoint. In 10 games against Gobert since the start of last season, including this postseason, Valanciunas has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute. While that is still lower than the 1.34 DraftKings points per minute that he has averaged overall during that time, it is more than enough to justify his salary if he plays 35 minutes, and it is in the same range as Gobert’s expected production.

Daniel Gafford ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,400 PF FanDuel) has played at least 20 minutes in all three games against the Sixers. He also played at least 20 minutes in both of the play-in games. Since joining the Wizards, Gafford has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute, and he has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in this series. Gafford is risky because of his limited playing time, but unlike most other value options on this slate, he actually is an extremely productive player when he is on the floor.

Top DraftKings Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, Daniel Gafford

Top FanDuel Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert


Be sure to check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Adam and Josh!

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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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